Red Sox free agency: Looking at potential bullpen options
Just what is available for the Boston Red Sox for free agent relief pitching? The list is long and is a smorgasbord of various talent levels. Here are just a few.
Bullpens in baseball have a curious and frustrating way of being inconsistent even when they are good and even great bullpens. In 2018, the Boston Red Sox did nothing to resolve what was perceived as a glaring weakness and subsequently, the bullpen became a key figure in postseason success and not a failure.
The Red Sox closer, Craig Kimbrel, and the enigmatic Joe Kelly are both available as free agents, but the free agent path goes both from and to Boston. Just who could the Red Sox take a long look at? In this segment I will skip over the most pronounced issue of a closer since that will most certainly continue to be hot stove league fodder until Kimbrel is re-signed, a replacement found, or the Red Sox go internal.
The following is an interesting list – at least to me – of pitchers who have made their baseball life experience taking that long stroll into tranquility or fire. What is the verdict on each?
Left-handed relief pitching was highly touted as a need for the Red Sox bullpen and a well-seasoned veteran is now a free agent – Tony Sipp. The 35-year-old Sipp is coming off a 3-year, $18 MM deal with the Astros and had arguably his finest season in 2018 appearing in 54 games, tossing 38.2 innings, and having a very respectable 1.86 ERA/2.41 FIP.
Sipp is viewed as a situational lefty meaning just that – a specialist for left-handed hitters, but for his career lefties hit Sipp at .221 and righties at .216 with corresponding associate numbers being similar. For a negative Sipp has a career 34.1 GB% and that one pesky nuisance – a 4.0 BB/9 (3.0 BB/9 in 2018).
Sipp mixes up three pitches – a fastball (91.8 v), slider, and change. In 2018 Sipp had a 13.7 SwStr% (swinging strike) and for comparison, Kelly posted a 10.8%. And then the price tag. Sipp was paid $157,000 per inning – Chris Sale was paid $76,000 per inning.
Just what will the market offer for Sipp? Relief pitching is certainly valued and Sipp is coming off an outstanding season for a great Astros team – a perfect fiscal storm for Sipp. That said I would be hesitant on signing Sipp despite the fact he would certainly be a suitable addition since his 2016-17 performance scares me off.
VERDICT: Pass
Was the 2018 season a sign that 33-year-old Andrew Miller is on the road to pitching ruin? Miller’s numbers were considerably “off” from what is expected of the remarkable set-up man with a 4.24 ERA being his career highest since exclusively working out of the bullpen. Or maybe it was a series of injuries?
Miller relies on two pitches – a fastball and slider with his slider being one of the best in the game. In 2018 Miller returned to a form that was thought to have been eradicated – walks. Miller’s 4.2 BB/9 was his highest since 2013 (5.0 BB/9). Miller’s 8.2 H/9 also represented a career-high since leaving starting (thankfully) behind.
Miller was the one free agent I would have focused on after his trade to Baltimore. Miller had proven himself in Boston and later in Baltimore, New York, and certainly Cleveland. As a postseason pitcher, Miller has likewise been outstanding, but last season presents the danger and also impacts value. Then there is the shoulder impingement that ended Miller’s 2018 making Miller a high-risk signing.
VERDICT: Avoid
If the Red Sox wish to spend, and this will certainly be spending, then take a run at 34-year-old right-hander David Robertson, who has been Mr. Consistency throughout his 11-year MLB career. Robertson has already mentioned leveraging the Red Sox against the Yankees as part of his negotiations regarding a new contract.
The 2018 season saw a shift by Robertson in his mound approach with the greater use of a recently (2017) introduced slider tossing it at a 14.4% rate while decreasing his use of a fastball to a career-low 42.5% rate. Robertson also maintained his fastball velocity (92.3) and also tossed a greater number of curves (42.9%) than his career average (29.3%).
Robertson is generally considered a set-up for the closer but does have a history of closing with 137 career saves and a 79.7% save percentage. Robertson is prone to walks with a 3.6 BB/9 for his career, but that is offset by a 12.0 K/9 and 6.7 H/9 for his career. Robertson is simply an élite out of the bullpen who is quite durable pitching 60+ games for the last eight seasons. A sure thing for late innings.
Making a run at Robertson and signing him would weaken a formidable Yankee bullpen and represent a coup for Boston and most certainly add one of the top relief arms in the game, but oh that money! Robertson earned $13 MM from New York in 2018 and is set to match and improve upon that.
VERDICT: Make an offer
Back to reality after the hope of signing Robertson with a similar Kelly in 33-year-old right-hander Tyler Clippard. Clippard has spent considerable time in the American League East with the Yankees and last season with Toronto where Clippard appeared in 73 games with a 4-3 record and 3.67 ERA/4.24 FIP.
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The one issue that leaps out with Clippard is a dismal 1.7 HR/9 thanks to a career-low 19.2 GB%. Clippard is a fly ball pitcher but has allowed just one in 16 innings pitched at Fenway Park. That, however, does not give me great solace that Clippard can keep it in the yard in this day and age of swing from the heels.
Clippard mixes it up on the mound with a fastball and its variations, a slider, change, and curve. In the velocity department, Clippard is no Kelly as he barely goes north of 90v on his heater. Is it still a heater when it doesn’t throw off much heat? Despite that Clippard still had an 11.1 K/9 rate in 2018 compared to hard-throwing Kelly’s 9.3 K/9. Clippard also doesn’t give up many hits with a career 6.7 H/9.
Clippard has reestablished himself and will get a nice – very nice – bounce from his baseball paltry $1.5 MM salary of 2018. The durable Clippard has averaged 72 games for the last eight seasons.
VERDICT: A good Kelly replacement
Jim Johnson twice led the American League in saves while with Baltimore, but that was in another life for the 35-year-old right-hander. Last season Johnson did some commendable work for the Angels (5-3, 3.84) in 62 games.
Johnson has lost a tick off his fastball but can still get into the mid-90s and mixes it in with a curve and occasional change. Expect the veteran to match his 2018 salary of $5 MM. Matt Barnes and Heath Hembree are better options.
Right-handed Fernando Salas posted respectable numbers for Arizona (4-4, 4.50) in 40 innings. The now 33-year-old relies on a fastball (90.5 v), slider, and change. Doesn’t walk many (2.9 BB/9) or strike out many (6.8 K/9). May end up with an incentive based contract somewhere.
Ryan Madson had a quite forgettable 2018 season (2-5, 5.47) after a long and quite successful MLB run of 13 seasons. In 2018 Madson threw with greater velocity (95.5) than any time in his career mixing in a curve and change. Madson may be a risky but cheap bargain.
Jake Diekman still throws hard (95.0 v), walks too many (5.0 BB/9), and fell apart in Arizona (7.53 ERA) after being traded from Texas. Classified as a lefty specialist Diekman had lefties whack him around to the tune of .329 versus just .188 for righties in 2018. Maybe a bargain.
Report Cards: Manager Alex Cora. dark. Next
Left-hander Justin Wilson is 31-years-old and had a far less than impressive 5.4 BB/9 for the Cubs in 2018. That was balanced out by an 11.4 K/9 and 7.4 H/9 as Wilson can certainly get into the high 90s with his fastball. The Cubs are Wilson’s fifth team in seven seasons and that may soon be a sixth team. Too many walks.
VERDICT: Nothing Special