Red Sox free agent moves for FanSided’s faux GM simulation
The FanSided Site Experts collaborated on a fake simulation of the offseason. Let’s break down the moves we made for the Boston Red Sox.
The Site Experts for each of the FanSided MLB sites participated in a simulation of the 2018-19 offseason over the course of the last few days. Acting as General Manager of the Boston Red Sox, I made bids on free agents and had trade discussions with other Site Experts representing their respective teams.
It’s a fun exercise that isn’t meant to predict what will actually happen this offseason. I put myself in Dave Dombrowski’s shoes to make the moves I would like to see come to fruition for the Red Sox this winter.
Or at least I tried to. As is the case in real life, sometimes teams get outbid for their targets and some of my fellow faux General Managers weren’t willing to part with players I hoped to trade for. I was competing with 29 other GM’s looking to improve the outlook of their team’s roster so I couldn’t simply snatch up anyone I wanted. Even in a fake simulation, players are only allowed to sign with one team.
That being said, I hardly came up empty and feel satisfied with the results.
Rules and Strategy
Before we break down the moves I made in this simulation, let me first explain my strategy. As the reigning World Series champions, the Red Sox already have a loaded roster that doesn’t need any drastic changes. This isn’t the year to make a splashy free agent signing or a blockbuster trade. My goal was to bring as much of the band back together as possible, which led me to focus on retaining our own free agents.
I also aimed to be realistic. Sure, it would be fun to pretend I had a limitless budget and make a play for Manny Machado or Bryce Harper. Maybe I could have emptied what’s left of the farm system for another elite starting pitcher. That’s never going to happen though, which in my mind defeated the purpose of the exercise.
Boston had MLB’s highest payroll in 2018 and will be hit with a hefty luxury tax bill, in addition to draft pick ramifications, to penalize them for their free-spending ways. Ownership can’t say it wasn’t worth it when the end result was a championship but it’s not a sustainable strategy every year. The Red Sox will almost certainly be a tax team again next year but they will want to keep the payroll from rising $40+ million above the threshold again in order to avoid the steepest penalties. I was mindful of this when making free agent decisions, ensuring the signings I made wouldn’t result in the budget getting out of control.
The Red Sox have seven players hitting free agency and I managed to bring back three of them. Let’s take a look at who I brought back and why.
Craig Kimbrel, 4-years, $68 million
My top priority was re-signing closer Craig Kimbrel. The $17 million average annual salary is a tick below the $17.2 million that Aroldis Chapman earns from the 5-year, $86 million deal the New York Yankees gave him two years ago, which was the largest amount ever given to a relief pitcher. Kimbrel is in the same elite class of closers but is also two years older than Chapman was when he signed. That’s why I was able to get away with offering one less year at a slight discount from what the Yankees paid for a similar player.
While this year didn’t quite meet his usual lofty standards, Kimbrel had an excellent season. He converted 42 of 47 save opportunities while posting a 2.74 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 13.9 K/9. He was shaky in the postseason but converted all six save chances.
A long-term deal for a relief pitcher on the wrong side of 30 is risky yet so is contending for a title without a reliable closer to lock down the ninth inning. Internal options such as Matt Barnes and Ryan Brasier are underwhelming and unproven in that role.
My preference would have been to trade for a younger, cheaper ninth inning solution and let Kimbrel walk. I had some discussions with the Site Expert for SoDo Mojo about Seattle Mariners closer Edwin Diaz but he didn’t want to deal the league-leader in saves. Most of the other faux GM’s weren’t putting their closer on the trading block, with Raisel Iglesias and Brad Hand being the only proven options that were traded in this simulation (both went to the Chicago Cubs).
Kimbrel is easily the top reliever on the market. While the price I paid was hardly a bargain, it’s a fair estimate of what he’s likely to earn in reality.
Nathan Eovaldi, 4-years, $60 million
The initial offer I made of 3-years, $42 million was challenged by the Chicago White Sox with a 3-year, $50 million offer. The rules of our simulation didn’t allow for us to match offers for our own free agents, forcing me to top any other suitors by at least five percent.
I was hesitant to go any higher for a pitcher who will slot in ear the back of the rotation so I countered by adding an addition year. It’s a lower average annual value than the Pale Hose were offering but with more total guaranteed. The Commissioner and Player Agent for our simulation agreed that my offer was the best one.
There is some concern about giving four years to a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery twice, with the most recent procedure costing Eovaldi the entire 2017 season. However, he showed no ill effects from the surgery this season, displaying his trademark velocity that can hit triple digits on the radar gun. He’s only 28 years old so there isn’t much risk of decline over the duration of this deal as long as he can remain relatively healthy.
Eovaldi pitched well following a mid-season trade with the Tampa Bay Rays. He was 3-3- with a 3.33 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 8.0 K/9 in 12 games (11 starts) with the Red Sox. The right-hander followed that with an excellent postseason, winning both his starts and making four relief appearances. That includes a heroic six-inning effort to salvage the bullpen in the 18-inning marathon against the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 3 of the World Series.
The price tag is a bit steep but Eovaldi earned it with an impressive postseason. Re-signing him also protects the Red Sox in case Chris Sale and/or Rick Porcello bolt in free agency next year.
Steve Pearce, 2-years, $14 million
You didn’t think I would leave out the World Series MVP, did you?
Pearce hit .279 with a .901 OPS, 7 home runs and 26 RBI in 50 games after the Red Sox acquired him from the Toronto Blue Jays in June. He was one of the team’s best hitters in the playoffs, hitting .289 with a 1.083 OPS, 4 home runs, and 11 RBI.
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Shortly after our simulation was complete, the Red Sox struck a one-year, $6.25 million deal with Pearce. It turns out my pretend offer wasn’t far off from the real one. Ideally, my offer would have been a one-year deal with a club option but the rules of our simulation didn’t allow for that.
The deal I offered is similar to the two-year, $13 million contract the Red Sox re-signed Mitch Moreland to last December. That sounds about right considering the pair will continue to platoon at first base. If you take Pearce’s production against lefties and Moreland’s against right-handed pitching, plus his Gold Glove caliber defense, you get a player who is a bargain at $13.5 million next season.
I thought Pearce’s performance on the World Series stage would entice other teams to jump into the bidding for his services yet I surprisingly was the only one to make an offer. I would have been disappointed to lose him considering what he meant to this championship run yet also couldn’t justify paying much more to a platoon player or handing more years to a 35-year old journeyman. Luckily, Pearce went overlooked and I managed to retain him for a fair salary.
Players I didn’t sign
I didn’t place a bid on any other free agents. Had I come up short with my offer for any of the three players I signed, I may have pivoted to an alternative on the free agent market.
Andrew Miller (3-years, $30 million), David Robertson (3-years, $33 million), and Zach Britton (3-years, $36 million) would have been viable backup plans for Kimbrel. You could make a case that the Site Experts who signed those three relievers got better values than I did, yet Kimbrel is clearly the best of those available options and comes with fewer concerns.
This free agent market is short on starting pitchers, another factor that led me to raise my bid to keep Eovaldi. The Philadelphia Phillies gave Patrick Corbin a massive 5-year, $150 million deal in this simulation and there was no way I was going to pay $30 million to another starter when Sale is bound to demand a salary in that range next year. I couldn’t stomach paying up to top the offers for Dallas Keuchel (5-years, $110 million) or J.A. Happ (2-years, $38 million) either. If I struck out with Eovaldi, my backup plan was to settle for an internal option to fill out the rotation.
The Kansas City Royals got a potential bargain with a 1-year, $5 million deal for Drew Pomeranz. The lefty desperately needs a change of scenery so I had no interest in bidding on him despite the clear upside of signing a pitcher of his caliber for short money.
I would have liked to have kept Joe Kelly but the San Francisco Giants offered three-years, $24 million for him. I couldn’t afford to pay that much after re-signing Kimbrel and there were other viable closer options in that same price range I preferred if I needed an alternative.
Ian Kinsler ended up going unsigned by the end of the simulation and in retrospect I should have considered scooping up the Gold Glove second baseman on a cheap one-year deal as insurance for Dustin Pedroia. I suspect the Red Sox would only bring Kinsler back if he’s still on the market deep into the winter when they’ll have a better idea about Pedroia’s status. It’s not realistic to expect Kinsler would want to stay if there is no clear role available here.
The simulation was a bit more exciting for the teams who got into wild bidding wars for Harper (12-years, $485 million) and Machado (10-years, $355). Those are both massive overpays that I wouldn’t entertain even if the Red Sox had a clear need for either superstar. But we’re talking about fake roster moves with imaginary payrolls, so why not aim high?
Next. Future Rookie of the Year candidates. dark
I kept my game plan simple, emulating what I believe the Red Sox will try to do this offseason. In the end, my roster looks strikingly like the one that won the World Series this year. I would call that a successful offseason.