Red Sox 2018 Offseason: Potential non-tender candidates
Do the Boston Red Sox have any arbitration-eligible players who may not be tendered a contract for the 2019 season? A look at some potential candidates.
The November 30 deadline to tender a contract to arbitration-eligible players is approaching, leaving the Boston Red Sox short on time to determine if they intend to keep all of them on their roster.
Boston has 12 players eligible for arbitration this winter, most of whom are virtual locks to return in 2019. Their salary for next season has yet to be determined but the club will have about two months to sort that out with the players before going to arbitration hearings, if necessary.
The Red Sox having a history of wrapping up these negotiations rather effortlessly, rarely letting it get to a hearing, although they did lose their case to Mookie Betts last year. Even if they struggle to find common ground on a contract with these players, it’s not as if they are going to let a player like Betts walk away. Arbitration-eligible players don’t have the same leverage as free agents. They remain under team control unless the team decides they no longer have a spot for them and are willing to let them go.
Is there anyone on this list of arbitration eligibles who the Red Sox may elect not to tender a contract to, thus granting them free agency?
MLB Trade Rumors recently revealed their annual list of non-tender candidates. While this doesn’t assume that all of these players will be refused a contract offer, a case can be made for why a team could decide to let them walk. The only Red Sox players to appear on the list are Tyler Thornburg and Sandy Leon.
Tyler Thornburg
Thornburg has been a complete bust since being acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers two years ago. He was expected to fill the setup role the Red Sox desperately needed but ended up missing the entire 2017 season after undergoing surgery to treat thoracic outlet syndrome in his right shoulder.
He returned in July of this season but was nowhere near the dominant pitching we once saw closing games for the Brewers. Thornburg owned a 5.63 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over the small sample size of 24 innings. His strikeout rate declined from his peak of 12.1 K/9 in 2016 to 7.9 while his walk rate increased to an untenable 3.8 BB/9.
We should have expected there to be some rust following a lengthy layoff but Thornburg showed little reason to expect he’ll return to his previous form before he was shut down for the season in mid-September.
Thornburg is projected to earn $2.3 million next season in his third year of arbitration. Perhaps now that he’s healthy with a full offseason to prepare, he’ll bounce back to being the pitcher the Red Sox thought they were acquiring. Are they willing to risk north of $2 million to find out or will an organization in need of trimming their luxury tax bill decide to replace his roster spot with a cheaper alternative from their farm system?
If the Red Sox bring Thornburg back next season they must either feel better about his upside when healthy than the rest of us do or they are desperate to milk any value they can get out of him in order to justify a trade that cost them an emerging Travis Shaw.
Sandy Leon
As for Leon, this one is a bit trickier. The veteran catcher is a wasted spot in the lineup, hitting a putrid .177 while producing a .511 OPS that ranked dead last in the majors this season among hitters with 250+ at-bats. His -0.5 WAR suggests he was one of the least valuable players in the league.
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Leon’s value stems primarily from his work behind the plate. He led the league at his position with 12 defensive runs saved and 5 RerC, which measures the number of runs above or below average the catcher was for the pitcher’s ERA. His true value to the Red Sox can’t be measured by statistics. His rapport with the pitching staff makes him invaluable.
No matter how awful Leon is with a bat in his hands, the Red Sox may be included to bring him back at a projected price of $2.3 million simply because their pitchers want him back. If Chris Sale says he wants Leon as his battery mate, you listen to what the ace says – especially when he’s a year away from hitting free agency himself.
While he’s not on the list provided by MLBTR, Blake Swihart could be a non-tender candidate if Leon does return. The Red Sox were willing to keep him on last year’s roster as a third catcher and their experimentation with using him at other positions shows their intent to find a spot for him. However, he was rarely used this season and is no longer dirt cheap now that he’s arbitration eligible. His projected $1.1 million salary for next season is affordable but the Red Sox may look to cut costs where they can in order to avoid the harshest luxury tax penalties for a second consecutive season.
Other non-tender candidates
Heath Hembree is more of a long-shot candidate to be non-tendered coming off the worst season of his career where he posted a 4.20 ERA and 4.1 BB/9. His track record shows he’s better than that and he was still one of the team’s most utilized middle relievers, reaching 60 innings for the second consecutive season.
Boston could look to revamp a bullpen that was shaky at times during the regular season, potentially making Hembree expendable. It’s hard to see them cutting ties with him this month though with the status of free agents Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly yet to be determined.
The only other viable non-tender candidate is Steven Wright. The former All-Star has enough upside to warrant keeping at a projected price tag of $1.4 million. He pitched well this season, although he was limited by injuries and recently underwent another knee surgery that could cost him part of the 2019 season. It’s possible the team could cut ties with the knuckleballer if they believe his latest injury setback will prevent him from being a factor next year but it would be a bit surprising considering he remains under team control until 2021.
Next. Long-shot blockbuster deal ideas. dark
We should expect all 12 of these arbitration-eligible players to be tendered a contract, with Thornburg being the possible exception. A case can be made for a few others but I wouldn’t bet on it. The reigning World Series champions will look to bring back as much of the band as they can to defend their title.