Red Sox closer Craig Kimbrel rejects qualifying offer

Boston Red Sox closer Craig Kimbrel has rejected the team’s qualifying offer and will become an unrestricted free agent this offseason.

Craig Kimbrel is officially a free agent after rejecting the qualifying offer extended by the Boston Red Sox prior to Monday’s 5 p.m. deadline.

Teams have the option of extending a qualifying offer to their impending free agents within five days of the end of the World Series, as long as that player spent the entire season with the organization. The offer is a one-year deal worth an average of the league’s 125 highest paid players, which amounts to $17.9 million this year.

It’s no surprise that Kimbrel rejected the offer and this certainly doesn’t mean the flame-throwing closer isn’t interested in re-signing with the Red Sox. Only five of the 73 players to receive a qualifying offer in previous years since the system began in 2012 have accepted and thus far only Los Angeles Dodgers left-handed pitcher Hyun-Jin Ryu has gone that route this year.

Kimbrel will enter free agency looking for a multi-year deal that will pay him an average salary similar to what the qualifying offer was for, if not more.

While 2018 was a bit of a down year statistically, Kimbrel remains one of the game’s top closers. He converted 42 of 47 saves while posting a 2.74 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 13.9 K/9. He struggled in the postseason, allowing seven earned runs in 10 2/3 innings, but successfully completed all six of his save chances.

Paying a relief pitcher on the wrong side of 30 is risky, especially a pitcher who relies heavily on his velocity. Contending for a championship without a proven closer is risky too though. Internal options Matt Barnes and Ryan Brasier are underwhelming fallback plans and would still leave the team in need of an upgrade in the setup role. Boston should explore the trade market or look to sign a cheaper alternative but may ultimately be inclined to pay up for the comfort of a known commodity by keeping Kimbrel.

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The benefit of extending the qualifying offer is that if Kimbrel does sign elsewhere, the Red Sox will receive a compensation draft pick. Since Boston was over the luxury tax this season, they will receive a pick after the fourth round instead of after the Competitive Balance round that follows the first round. This reduced compensation, in addition to having their first-round pick moved back 10 spots, is a reminder of why teams are cautious about exceeding the luxury tax. It’s not just about the money, folks.

Any other team that signs Kimbrel would be subject to losing at least one draft pick, with the severity of that penalty depending on if the team paid the luxury tax last season or receives revenue sharing. That could make some teams think twice about handing Kimbrel a lucrative contract. This factor typically doesn’t hinder elite players like Kimbrel but it potentially could lead to a cooler market than expected, making it easier for the Red Sox to compete for him on the open market.

The Red Sox didn’t extend a qualifying offer to Joe Kelly or Drew Pomeranz. While this means they may lose both without compensation, there was no way they would risk paying either of them $17.9 million next year. Nathan Eovaldi, Steve Pearce, and Ian Kinsler are all free agents who Boston would like to re-sign but they weren’t eligible for the qualifying offer since they were acquired mid-season.

The Red Sox have hinted that they are interested in bringing back most, but not all, of their free agents. Kimbrel is presumably at the top of their wish list. Rejecting the qualifying offer takes away one potential avenue for his return but the Red Sox should still be considered strongly in the mix for the All-Star closer.