Red Sox: Reacting to MLB Trade Rumor’s free agent predictions
The Boston Red Sox have four free agents this offseason on MLB Trade Rumors’ Top 50 list. They predict that all but one will be wearing a different jersey on Opening Day 2019.
The World Series Champion Boston Red Sox have some choices to make this offseason. Seven of their players are free agents. Craig Kimbrel, Joe Kelly, Nathan Eovaldi, Ian Kinsler, Steve Pearce, Drew Pomeranz, and Brandon Phillips will all have the chance to sign elsewhere.
In their top-50 free agent predictions, MLB Trade Rumors has Kimbrel, Kelly, and Pomeranz all ending up on different teams, with Eovaldi coming back to Boston, and the Red Sox signing lefty reliever Andrew Miller from the Cleveland Indians. They also list Kinsler as an honorable mention, though they don’t predict where he will sign.
Dave Dombrowski recently mentioned that all of the Red Sox’ free agents have expressed a desire to come back to Boston, but that probably isn’t realistic or practical. They have a limited amount of money they can spend, even with lots of money coming off the books. So they will need to take a look at their options, both internal and external, and make the best decisions possible.
Let’s take a more in-depth look at MLBTR’s predictions.
Craig Kimbrel
Predicted Contract: Four years, $70MM from the St. Louis Cardinals
This contract would not be a surprise for Kimbrel. The Red Sox extended him a qualifying offer of one year, $17.9MM, which he is all but certain to reject. His reasoning for this would be that he can, in all likelihood, obtain a contract roughly this size from someone like the Cardinals.
Currently, the highest paid reliever in baseball is Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman, who is on a five-year deal worth $86MM, which amounts to $17.2MM per year. Kimbrel is likely looking to beat this yearly average. The difference between the two players, though, is age. Chapman was 28 when he signed his deal and Kimbrel is 30.
This, along with a decline in performance this year, would likely make the Red Sox hesitate to give him a contract of this size. His walks and home runs were up, and he had a mostly rough postseason. He didn’t actually blow any saves, but he gave up at least one run in five out of his nine outings. He was able to bounce back in the World Series but there was still a sense of nervousness every time he came out to pitch.
This is a large contract for the Red Sox to commit to a closer at this time. Especially after we’ve seen Alex Cora get creative with his bullpen in the playoffs, they would probably be smart to pass on this contract and let someone like Matt Barnes slide into the closer role, while adding a versatile reliever like Andrew Miller.
Andrew Miller
Predicted Contract: Three years, $27MM from the Red Sox
Andrew Miller has been one of the best relievers in all of baseball for about six years now. He just finished off a four-year, $36MM deal that the Yankees gave him before the 2015 season. But he’s 33 now and is coming off a season in which he was placed on the disabled list three different times for three different injuries. One of the injuries was to his right knee, which has been bothering him since the end of 2017.
Miller would be an intriguing option to add to the back of this Red Sox bullpen. He hasn’t closed regularly since he was traded from the Yankees to the Indians, but he definitely has the ability to if the situation calls for it.
Even so, three years seems like a lot for a guy his age with the injury history that he’s building up. This is especially true when there are other relievers in their prime hitting the market this offseason, including Cody Allen, David Robertson, Kelvin Herrera, and Adam Ottavino, to name a few.
If Miller were willing to take a shorter contract, then it really might be worth taking a look at for the Red Sox. Otherwise, based on the huge talent pool that’s building up, they should probably pass on old friend Andrew Miller this offseason. In fact, bringing back someone like Joe Kelly might be the better option.
Joe Kelly
Predicted Contract: Three years, $27MM from the Los Angeles Angels
Joe Kelly has had a rollercoaster of a career in Boston. Gone are the days when he would say that he didn’t want to be a reliever because he hurt himself as a reliever in college. Kelly turned himself into an early-season Boston hero when he hit Tyler Austin of the Yankees with a pitch that started a benches-clearing brawl.
He then had a magical postseason in which he only gave up one run in 11.1 innings, while striking out 13 Yankees, Astros and Dodgers. This performance brought Kelly into the national spotlight and is a big reason a team might be willing to give him $9MM a year for three years.
Kelly is prone to a stinker outing every once in a while, but overall, he’s a solid option out of the bullpen. Especially if he’s figured out something new that will take him to the next level, as it seems like he did based on his playoff performance, he could be a dangerous weapon. And as we all know, Joe Kelly has great stuff.
A three-year contract would take him to his age 33 season, where he could still be plenty effective. The yearly average might be a little bit high, but it is definitely worth exploring for the Red Sox.
Nathan Eovaldi
Predicted Contract: Four years, $60MM from the Red Sox
Nathan Eovaldi really made a name for himself in Boston this year. In 16 regular season innings against the Yankees, he didn’t give up any runs. That is something that will immediately endear any pitcher in the hearts of Red Sox fans.
Overall, he had a 3.33 ERA for Boston while striking out 48 in 54 innings. But it was again the playoffs that did a lot to bolster his worth. Eovaldi was willing to do whatever the Red Sox needed from him, whether it was to start or come out of the bullpen, whenever they needed him to do it. Most notably, he pitched six relief innings and threw 97 pitches in Game Three of the World Series, after already having pitched in the first two games of the series.
Eovaldi is a more-than-solid free agent option. He is only 28 and he had a very good year split between the Rays and Red Sox in his first year back from Tommy John surgery. The surgery didn’t cause him to lose velocity – his average four-seam fastball clocked in at 97.2 mph, which isn’t even a full tick down from what it was in 2016 (97.7).
Four years at this dollar amount wouldn’t really be a stretch for the Red Sox at all. There are a lot of question marks in their starting rotation – can Chris Sale come back healthy? What Rick Porcello will we get? Can Eduardo Rodriguez pitch more efficiently for a full season? So bringing back Eovaldi would be a smart move.
Drew Pomeranz
Predicted Contract: One year, $6MM from the Kansas City Royals
There probably isn’t any situation in which Pomeranz returns to the Red Sox in 2019. He had a very good season in 2017, where he went 17-6 with a 3.32 ERA and 174 strikeouts. It made him a solid and dependable starter in the Red Sox’ rotation.
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But his first half season in Boston was disappointing, as was his 2018. Injuries have brought his velocity down and he hasn’t had the same control of his curveball that he has had when he is at his best. For the most part, he’s caused more trouble for the Red Sox than he has produced good results.
This contract would be a low risk, high reward kind of contract for both Pomeranz and the Royals. For Pomeranz, he would be going to a market where the pressure would be all but gone. If his velocity really is back like it was said to be towards the end of the playoffs, he could put together a good season in Kansas City. He could increase his stock and find himself with a comfortable contract from a good team two years from now in 2020. And the Royals would be getting a good former All-Star, who is barely 30 years old.
The Red Sox also have three other free agents that didn’t make the top-50 list: Kinsler, Pearce, and Phillips.
With Dustin Pedroia‘s future still uncertain, they could look into re-signing either Kinsler or Phillips on a short-term deal due to their ages. Kinsler’s offense can be brutally bad at times, but he did just win a Gold Glove. Phillips only played in nine games for the Major League ball club this year. Other than one big home run, he didn’t do anything to show that he can play second base regularly in the Majors.
Another possible option for second base could be Jed Lowrie. MLBTR is predicting him to stay with Oakland for three years, $30MM. First of all, he may not be worth quite that much. And second, the Red Sox could very easily swoop in and sign the 34-year-old. He’s played two full seasons in a row for the first time in his career and has produced good offensive numbers in both while playing very good defense.
Finally, Steve Pearce is an interesting candidate to return on a short-term deal. He’ll be 36 in April, but the lifetime Red Sox fan proved he has a knack for clutch situations during the regular season, and especially during the playoffs. He could return as a first base platoon option because of Mitch Moreland‘s ever-questionable health.
Next. Benintendi more than deserving of Gold Glove Award. dark
The Red Sox have a lot of interesting choices ahead of them this offseason. Fortunately, in all of their areas of need, there are plenty of options available. Look for Dave Dombrowski to do whatever is needed to get the team back to the World Series in 2019.