State of the Red Sox as we look ahead to the 2019 season
The Boston Red Sox now have another title and that will soon mean attention will be focused on the 2019 season. This is a quick look at potential changes for the coming season.
The hangover will last awhile as Red Sox Nation enjoys victory fever over a spectacular 2018 season. But what does the future hold for the Red Sox? If previous championships are an indicator, the Red Sox will not repeat, but history does have a way of being rewritten.
The Red Sox are a team with question marks just like every other team, but we can certainly state that our question marks are considerably less than other teams as Boston has youth, money, an incredible fan base, and a resilience on and off the field.
The following is just an overview of what potential awaits in the offseason for the Red Sox and more will follow as the Duck Boats are put away and management gets down to formulating a team that can break the repeat curse – this team has been rather adept at beating curses.
With the ever-fluid dynamics of contracts, free agency, and trades the Red Sox will most certainly have new faces arrive and old faces leave. That is the nature of all professional sports and just look at the 2013 championship team as only three members were on the 2018 squad.
Starting Rotation
In baseball, it all begins with that little bump in the middle of the infield and that will be an issue as it is every season. Someone will surprise and so will someone fail. The ever-present specter of injuries only complicate the dynamics that is your rotation.
The free agency of Drew Pomeranz will have little in consequences on the staff. Pomeranz was a statistical failure (2-6, 6.08) and will move on, but the core of the rotation remains with David Price and Chris Sale now elevated to equals among equals.
Price has the long-term contract and Sale is in his free agency season, but Sale certainly comes with a huge question mark regarding his shoulder. Sale pitched just 17 innings in the last two months of the season and that raises red flags. As always, depth will be a significant part of the rotation equation.
Rick Porcello is also in the last year of his contract and the durable right-hander made 33 starts and did manage to lead the American League pitchers with the dubious distinction of hitting 16 batters. Porcello most likely can be counted upon for 15+ wins.
The three wild cards in the potential rotation for 2019 are Nathan Eovaldi, Steven Wright, and Eduardo Rodriguez. Eovaldi is a free agent and Red Sox management will do everything possible to sign the postseason stud or face the PR wrath of Red Sox Nation. What the price tag will be is going to be dependent upon the market, but expect Eovaldi to get both years and money somewhere.
Rodriguez (13-5, 3.82) has the “stuff” to be a big-time factor in the rotation providing E-Rod manages to stay healthy. In 2018 it was a quirky tumble at first base that put him on the shelf. And then there is Wright when one speaks of injury. Just what does the knee future hold for Wright? At 34-years-old the right-hander is in his prime years for a knuckleball pitcher.
Brian Johnson is easy to dismiss, but the former number one draft pick did respectable service as a part-time starter (4-3, 4.15) and could be in the mix if injuries and a failure to sign Eovaldi surface. Johnson could also be part of a package deal if the Red Sox feel they have adequate depth.
The Red Sox farm system has no one – at least yet – to be considered a potential addition to the rotation.
Prediction: Red Sox sign Eovaldi
Bullpen
The 2018 season was a love-hate relationship with the Red Sox bullpen. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski passed on making any significant additions at the trading deadline and the general consensus was this would doom the team in the playoffs. That – thankfully – proved just the opposite when the playoffs arrived.
The two big health question marks are Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg who have been clear failures in their Red Sox years. Both have injury issues that may or may not kill their careers. Smith (1-1, 3.72) appeared to be making headway until he injured his shoulder and Thornburg managed to give up six home runs in just 24 innings. Don’t count on either.
The next issue is free agents Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly. This is a real flip-flop between the regular season and postseason for both. Kimbrel had 42 saves and the strikeouts were down (13.9 K/9) versus 2017 and the walks (4.5 BB/9) we up. Kimbel was awful in the playoffs with 10.2 innings pitched and seven earned runs.
Kelly gave the Dodgers fits in the World Series appearing in all five games and allowing no runs, four hits, striking out 10, and issuing no walks. Kelly didn’t walk a batter in the playoffs despite having a 4.4 BB/9 during 2018. And 2018 was a tale of two halves with the first half being spectacular and the second half a spectacular failure.
Expect the remaining pieces of the bullpen to return with all-purpose starter-reliever Hector Velazquez, hard-throwing Matt Barnes, home run prone (10) Heath Hembree, surprising Ryan Brasier, and youthful lefty Bobby Poyner. Brandon Workman may have seen his last days in a Red Sox uniform but will leave with two rings.
Prediction: Red Sox sign Kelly
Outfield/DH
This is a something special position for the Red Sox and is flat-out the best outfield in the American League, National League, and any other league on this planet. Just run the numbers: First with a 136 wRC+, wOBA (.378), Slugging (.518), ISO (.223), BABIP (.340), batting average (.295), OBP (.373) and a 22.9 fWAR. They steal bases (80), they walk (10.5 BB%) and they play defense (8.9 UZR/150.
The outfielders are young and interchangeable as each one can play any three of the outfield slots. When J.D. Martinez is not DH he can play either right or left and as long as he avoids a David Freese fly ball will do fine. And speaking of Martinez, the Red Sox easily rank first at DH. No surprise.
This outfield will soon become costly as all are going to be either deep into arbitration of free agency, but Boston is not the Kansas City Royals so expect decisions being made that do not sing the sad song of a fire sale.
The real issue is depth to overcome any significant time lost to injury such as what happened when Mookie Betts missed 14 games. The Red Sox gave Sam Travis and Blake Swihart some time in the outfield and all-purpose Brock Holt can play just about anywhere. After the Big Four, the drop off is considerable.
Maybe the Red Sox can somehow tweak the payroll and get International League batting champion, Rusney Castillo, back to Boston? The versatile Castillo can also play any outfield position, but I doubt he’ll replace Andrew Benintendi or Jackie Bradley. The only other option is Tzu-Wei Lin who saw limited duty in Boston (.246) but hit .307 for Pawtucket (AAA).
Prediction: Benintendi makes a run at the batting title
Infield
Get the easy stuff out of the way first. Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers will play 130+ games if healthy and for Devers that may be a bit of a challenge. Devers’ average and power numbers (.240/21 HR) may have disappointed, but the 22-year-old seems to flourish in the spotlight of the playoffs. Maybe get a nice bounce on his 90 wRC+ in 2019? Devers’ 24 errors and -5.2 UZR/150 are of concern.
Bogaerts did it all in 2018 and may just be starting to move up to the next level with power production. In the shortstop rich AL, the former Silver Slugger (twice) winner slammed 23 home runs and busted out with 103 RBI. Can he do more? Bogaerts also was third among AL shortstops with an impressive 4.9 fWAR.
The last easy stuff depends on contracts and that means Word Series MVP, Steve Pearce. Will the Red Sox re-sign Pearce to compliment the left-hand hitting Mitch Moreland? The right-handed hitting Pearce tormented the Yankees during the season and the Dodgers in the postseason. Both Pearce and Moreland have that innate ability to get big – usually very big – hits at the most opportune of time.
Ian Kinsler will be a free agent and may still be a free agent deep into spring training. The Red Sox’ big question mark regarding the infield is Dustin Pedroia with injury and age (35) placing this .300 lifetime hitters career in jeopardy. If Pedroia makes a full recovery second base is a lockdown, but that may be wishful dreaming.
The Red Sox have Eduardo Nunez who I will suspect will exercise his player option ($5 MM) and be back for third, second, or short. Holt is always available for every infield position and Lin is waiting for his opportunity. But if Pedroia is a no go the Red Sox may have to hope that Kinsler is still on the board.
Prediction: Sox sign Pearce
Catching
Just how bad was the Red Sox offense at catcher? In the NL, 13 pitchers had a higher batting average than Sandy Leon‘s .177. Is there now a Leon Line? Collectively the Red Sox catchers hit .202 and had a -2.1 fWAR. The good news is they led all AL catchers in steals (11). The surprising news is they were on base enough to get 11 steals.
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The key ingredient for the catching group is defense. One item is catcher ERA and Leon is the leader in that statistic among backstops, but the catchers also have a +24 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) and it metricsville that is a positive. Overall the Red Sox are tenth in catching defensive metrics, but the real issue is giving up at-bats. They can’t hit.
Christian Vazquez hit .290 in 2017 and big things were expected in 2018 and Vaz sank to .207. Swihart caught 154 innings, tossed out 26% of attempted base stealers, and did hit .229 with three home runs. Will he get more time?
The free agent market offers some options that are long in tooth and short on talent. With Boston and an industrious lineup they can enjoy the luxury of a good field and no hit at the catcher slot, but can they continue down that path?
Prediction: Red Sox sign Kurt Suzuki
Management
The most notable of management is the manager Alex Cora who rejuvenated a team that was about as exciting as a budget meeting. Cora gets much and very well deserved praise for using his lineup like a chess master in getting the right players in the right position to succeed. Cora will not be Manager of the Year as that award will probably go to Kevin Cash since the perception is doing more with less.
Next on the list is Dave Dombrowski you made horrific trades and spectacular trades, but also addressed issues when they needed to be addressed. The moves for Pearce and Eovaldi undoubtedly saved the season. Long-term may be another story. Will payroll and the loss of minor league talent finally impact the team? That is the future and in the present DD has delivered what he was supposed to deliver and that is a World Series flag.
The ownership expressed a willingness to exceed the luxury tax this season and will that philosophy continue? The Red Sox are obviously a cash machine that had great reach as it has allowed the expansion of the ownership into other sports, real estate, and even a new theater. Maybe the money will be there from the various enterprises to pump up the coffers at Fenway Park?
Next. Red Sox are World Series Champions. dark
The farm system certainly provided talent that is now on the positional roster and talent that could and was used in trades to upgrade the team. Just how barren is the farm system? Various sites that analyze that aspect of the game have the Red Sox well on the back end of the 30 MLB teams. Maybe that will change in 2019?
Prediction: No Repeat