Red Sox vs Dodgers: Five key factors to watch in this World Series
These five factors could be the key to victory for the Boston Red Sox or Los Angeles Dodgers when they square off in the 2018 World Series.
This is it! The big dance, the show, the one for all the marbles. It’s the Boston Red Sox and the Los Angeles Dodgers, two star-studded clubs pitted against each other with a World Series championship on the line.
The Dodgers have won the National League pennant 23 times while the Red Sox have won the American League pennant 14 times yet surprisingly these franchises haven’t met in the World Series in over a century. The last time was in 1916 when the Dodgers were still in Brooklyn and calling themselves the Robins. Babe Ruth tossed 13 scoreless innings in Game 2 of the five-game series won by the Red Sox. Fenway Park was still a shiny new ballpark considered too small to host World Series games, resulting in the home games in Boston being moved to Braves Field.
So, yeah, that was a long time ago. Much has changed since then but one theme that remains is the desire by both sides to be crowned champion. Both of these teams won their respective divisions and boast rosters overflowing with talent yet they each have obstacles to overcome in order to earn that World Series ring.
These five factors could swing the World Series for one of these teams, making them key concerns to keep an eye on.
Struggle with southpaws
The Red Sox and Dodgers have two of the most prolific offenses in baseball, leading their respective leagues in runs scored. If there is a weakness with either lineup, it’s against left-handed pitching.
The Red Sox tied for 12th in the majors with a .250 batting average against lefties and were 18th with a .719 OPS. They saw some improvement in this area following the mid-season acquisition of lefty masher Steve Pearce but their regular lineup will still contain at least a few left-handed bats who struggle against southpaws.
Andrew Benintendi (.247), Mitch Moreland (.242), Rafael Devers (.229), Jackie Bradley Jr (.185), and Sandy Leon (.153) were all liabilities at the plate against lefties this season. Even some of their right-handed hitters surprisingly performed worse against lefties, including Xander Bogaerts (.269) and Ian Kinsler (.167). Boston can’t sit all of these guys.
That could be a problem against a Dodgers rotation that includes Clayton Kershaw, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Rich Hill. Los Angeles has also added left-handed reliever Scott Alexander to their roster for this series. He has held left-handed hitters to a .172 average and .460 OPS this season, giving the Dodgers a weapon to strategically deploy out of the bullpen.
The Dodgers lineup isn’t any better against lefties. They were 20th in the majors with a .240 average and 13th with a .733 OPS. They upgraded mid-season by adding David Freese, who posted a .464/.545/.786 line in 28 at-bats against lefties since joining the Dodgers.
Los Angeles has several key bats who struggles against lefties though, including Max Muncy (.255), Chris Taylor (.232), Cody Bellinger (.226), Yasmani Grandal (.206), and Joc Pederson (.170). The Dodgers brought in Brian Dozier to help but he’s been a disaster since moving to LA.
A lineup that struggles against lefties will have an uphill battle on the road against Chris Sale and David Price in the first two games of the World Series. Boston surprisingly added Drew Pomeranz to their roster to give them another lefty to deploy against this lineup. As disastrous as his season went, Pomeranz is at least serviceable against left-handed hitters. Eduardo Rodriguez hasn’t pitched well this postseason but he could be a key cog in this bullpen given the struggles of the Dodgers against lefties.
Redemption tours continue
The starting rotations for both teams include former Cy Young winners who have flipped the script on their postseason narratives this October.
David Price vanquished his playoff demons with his first postseason win as a starting pitcher in the decisive Game 5 of the ALCS against the Houston Astros. His postseason struggles are well documented. Price was tagged with the loss in nine of his first 11 postseason starts with an unsightly ERA north of 5.00 over that span. Six shutout innings with nine strikeouts and zero walks to lead his team into the World Series will silence the critics.
Clayton Kershaw’s postseason woes haven’t received as much attention as Price has but the three-time Cy Young winner and former MVP hasn’t been quite as sharp under the bright lights of the October stage. He’s 9-8 over 28 career playoff games, including 22 starts, with a 4.09 ERA that stands well above his regular season career 2.39 ERA.
It hasn’t been all smooth sailing for Kershaw this year, with a loss in Game 1 of the NLCS (four earned runs over three innings) standing out as a blemish on his resume. However, he was brilliant in eight shutout innings in Game 2 of the NLDS against the Atlanta Braves. He bounced back from his rocky start against the Milwaukee Brewers to win Game 5 behind seven innings of one-run ball. Kershaw also slammed the series shut with a scoreless ninth inning in the decisive Game 7 of the NLCS.
Both of these pitchers have reinvented themselves after winding up on the wrong side of 30. They have both lost a tick on their fastballs, living in the 90-92 mph range instead of mid-90’s heat. Price still gets his fair share of punchouts but he’s not blowing batters away anymore. He has to be craftier, painting the corners to rack up called strikes. Kershaw also locates well and still has a filthy slider but his 8.6 K/9 is his lowest since he was a rookie in 2008. It’s still an above-average rate but this is from a guy who led the league in that category at his peak.
Price and Kershaw may not be as dominant as they once were but perhaps their altered approach makes them better suited for the postseason. They are forced to pitch rather than simply rely on raw talent. It seems to be working for each of them this postseason. Will that continue in the World Series?
DH Debate
One of the biggest questions teams face in the World Series is how to handle the designated hitter position. The National League doesn’t use the DH, forcing American League teams to ditch that spot in favor of pitchers stepping to the plate. While some may favor this old-school approach for the strategy it invokes, the rules put the AL at a distinct disadvantage. This is particularly true for a team like the Red Sox that has a primary DH as the linchpin of their lineup.
How will the Red Sox fit J.D. Martinez in the lineup for Games 3-5 in Los Angeles?
One theory being floated around is that Mookie Betts could move to second base to allow Martinez to play right field. Betts came up through the minor league system as a second baseman, moving to the outfield only because his path to the big leagues was blocked by Dustin Pedroia at the time. Aside from six innings at the position earlier this season, Betts hasn’t played second base since 2014.
He fields grounders as part of his pregame routine and there’s no doubt he’d be prepared if asked to switch positions yet it would be a significant risk to have Betts play a position he hasn’t been familiar with for years in the biggest games of his career. Even if he holds his own at second, he’s still a downgrade from former Gold Glove winner Ian Kinsler. Boston also loses the advantage of having the best right fielder in baseball. Replacing Betts with Martinez in right is a massive downgrade.
The Red Sox could bench Jackie Bradley, shift Betts to center field and put Martinez in right. Andrew Benintendi is also capable of moving to center with Martinez going to left if they prefer. This is how the Red Sox typically handled their alignment in the 57 games Martinez spent int he outfield this season, making it the most likely solution. Either scenario still weakens the outfield defense and deprives the Red Sox of the ALCS MVP.
Lefties Kershaw and Ryu will start the first two games of the series at Fenway, where Boston will have the DH available. Expect Bradley to sit against the lefty Hill in Game 4, although he’ll still be used as a defensive replacement and/or pinch-runner late in games if the Red Sox have a lead. He could also sit against Kershaw in a potential Game 5.
That leaves only Game 3 against Walker Buehler as the only road game against a right-handed starter. Bradley should be starting if the Red Sox aren’t facing a lefty. Perhaps this is the spot where they experiment with Betts at second base? It’s not a viable long-term strategy but they could make it work for at least part of one game.
It’s either that or they start Martinez on the bench in that game, allowing manager Alex Cora to deploy him strategically midway through the game. Maybe he hits for the pitcher and remains in the game as part of a double-switch. It may cost him at least one at-bat but it may be worth it to avoid weakening their defense for an entire game.
Cora will have to get creative to maximize Martinez’ bat without costing his team on the defensive end. He’ll make it work but there’s no doubt that the rules put Boston at a disadvantage.
Catcher conundrum
Sandy Leon emerged as the primary catcher for the Red Sox this season based on his stellar defense and game-calling abilities. His anemic bat has been a problem though. Normally, an offense as powerful as Boston’s can handle having an automatic out at the bottom of the order but that may not be the case in this series. We’ve already discussed Boston’s struggles against lefties, which are only compounded by having Leon in the lineup. What about when the series shifts to Los Angeles and they lose the DH? Can the Red Sox afford to have Leon and the pitcher batting back-to-back?
Christian Vazquez isn’t exactly lighting it up but his .227 average this postseason makes him more of a threat than Leon, who is hitless in seven at-bats. Vazquez also has a bit more pop with a double and a homer this postseason. He’s a very good defensive catcher in his own right and should earn the nod to start the majority of games in this series.
Leon will get the start in Game 1 due to his rapport with Chris Sale but it should be Vazquez catching anyone else.
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Can we please have a Blake Swihart sighting in this series? The Red Sox have insisted on carrying three catchers yet have only given Swihart one plate appearance. There’s no excuse for not getting him into at least one of the games in LA to pinch-hit for the pitcher.
The Dodgers have the opposite problem. Yasmani Grandal is one of the game’s best hitters at the position but his defense has been a problem this postseason. He was benched following a disastrous Game 3 in the NLCS in which he allowed three passed balls and was relegated to pinch-hitting duties for the rest of the series.
Austin Barnes is hitting .111 in the playoffs and barely cracked the Mendoza Line during the regular season. The Dodgers may be forced to use him in the World Series if they can’t stomach the risk of losing a game due to Grandal failing to keep the ball in front of him with runners on base.
Shaky closers
How comfortable will either of these teams feel protecting a slim lead in the ninth inning? That shouldn’t be an issue when you have Craig Kimbrel or Kenley Jansen filling the closer role for your team but neither has been their usual reliable selves this year.
Kimbrel produced another All-Star campaign, converting 42 of 47 save opportunities (89.4%) while posting a 2.74 ERA and 13.9 K/9. Those a great numbers, just not quite what we’re used to from Kimbrel. His atrocious 4.5 BB/9 and career-high seven home runs allowed were also concerning.
Those flaws have been exposed in the playoffs. Kimbrel has allowed five earned runs over 6 1/3 innings for a 7.11 ERA this postseason.
While he managed to hold off the New York Yankees in Game 1 of the ALDS, Kimbrel didn’t get through the save unscathed. He allowed a home run to Aaron Judge that cut Boston’s lead to one in the ninth.
He has walked six batters this postseason, including three in Game 4 of the ALCS to load the bases. Kimbrel may have blown the save if not for an outstanding diving catch by Benintendi to end the game. He also hit a batter the previous inning, leading to a run that trimmed Boston’s lead to two.
Kimbrel’s two messiest appearances this postseason are also the only instances in which he’s been asked to get more than three outs. If ever there’s a time for a team to ask their stars to give them a little extra, it’s the World Series. Can the Red Sox risk sending Kimbrel out for more than an inning with the stakes this high?
Jansen has been brilliant this postseason, tossing 6 2/3 scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts. This is an encouraging sign for the Dodgers but is this small sample enough to offset what has been an otherwise down season for their closer?
Jansen converted 38 of 42 save opportunities (90.5%) but posted a career-high 3.01 ERA. His velocity was down and his 10.3 K/9 – while still elite – was well below his 13.5 K/9 career rate. Jansen also allowed 13 home runs, more than double his previous career-high.
Next. World Series schedule. dark
These are two of the game’s best closers having uncharacteristically poor seasons. It hasn’t cost their team yet this postseason but it very well could if they don’t return to form.