Red Sox Postseason: Five biggest questions heading into ALDS vs Yankees
These are the five biggest questions facing the Boston Red Sox as they prepare to take on the New York Yankees in the ALDS.
The rivalry has been renewed. The Boston Red Sox will meet the New York Yankees in the American League Division Series, which begins Friday night at Fenway Park.
This marks the first time these rivals have met in the postseason since the 2004 ALCS. That turned out pretty well for Boston, as you may recall. Hey, the Red Sox have a four-game postseason winning streak against the Yankees!
Boston won a franchise record 108 games this season to capture their third consecutive AL East division title. New York finished a distant eight games behind them yet still won 100 games, third most in the majors.
Imagine winning 100 games and having to fight for your postseason life in a do-or-die Wild Card Game. That’s the spot the Yankees found themselves in Wednesday night against the Oakland A’s. The Bronx Bombers lived up to their moniker, slugging their way to a 7-2 victory at Yankee Stadium.
Now we have the series we’ve been waiting for. One of the greatest rivalries in sports ignites again on the postseason stage.
As dominant as the Red Sox have been this year, a number of questions linger over this team heading into the playoffs. The answers to these questions may determine whether or not Boston moves on to the next round.
Can the starting rotation earn a win?
This narrative will continue to haunt the Red Sox until it changes course. Boston is expected to roll with a four-man rotation in the ALDS, none of whom have ever won a playoff game as a starting pitcher.
You know the deal with David Price. Great regular season resume but he can’t win in the postseason. That’s not entirely true and wildly unfair yet his critics will continue to harp on it. Price is 2-8 in the postseason with both wins coming as a reliever. His 5.03 ERA and 1.21 WHIP are higher than you’d expect from a pitcher of his caliber.
It’s true that Price has had a few meltdowns in the playoffs. That doesn’t mean he can’t perform in October. In fact, he has. He held the Baltimore Orioles to two runs over eight innings in the 2014 ALDS. He didn’t get the win but why is that his fault? He pitched well enough to earn one. Price was brilliant in last year’s postseason, tossing 6 2/3 shutout innings over two appearances. Who cares if those innings came out of the bullpen? He’s far from the most consistent guy in the playoffs but Price is clearly capable of handling the postseason pressure.
A win in Game 2 against the Yankees would go a long way toward shifting how fans view Price.
While none of them garner the attention that Price does for the lack of wins, the rest of the rotation lacks a winning track record in the playoffs.
Rick Porcello hasn’t been any better than Price, posting a 0-3 record and 5.47 ERA in his postseason career. He hasn’t made it through five innings in either of his starts in the postseason with the Red Sox.
Nathan Eovaldi seems likely to get the start in Game 4. He’s pitched well against the Yankees this year but he’s never pitched in the postseason before.
Chris Sale made his postseason debut last year with the Red Sox after spending the first seven seasons of his career with a Chicago White Sox team that sat at home every October. The results weren’t great. He made one start and one relief appearance, getting tagged with the loss both times while allowing nine earned runs over 9 2/3 innings against the Houston Astros.
It’s a small sample size and Sale is too talented to not bounce back. However, he dealt with shoulder issues for most of the second half and saw a concerning dip in velocity as he worked up his pitch count down the stretch. If Chris Sale isn’t quite Chris Sale against this Yankees lineup then the Red Sox are in trouble.
Who plays third base?
The hot corner threatens to be a weak spot for the Red Sox in the postseason.
Rafael Devers was expected to have a breakout season but instead struggled through a Sophomore slump. The 21-year old hit .240 with a .731 OPS, both of which are steep drops from what he produced as a rookie last year.
Devers was also among the worst defensive third baseman in baseball with -13 defensive runs saved and a major-league leading 24 errors at the position.
Eduardo Nunez is a lukewarm alternative. His season wasn’t any better at the plate, hitting .265 with a .677 OPS. He’ll hit for a higher average than Devers but lacks the same power upside.
Nunez recovered from a slow start to post a modest .282 average and .736 OPS in the second half. His stock started to rise when he took over at third base while Devers was on the disabled list in August. However, he dealt with a hamstring injury late in the season that kept him off the field in eight of the last ten regular season games.
Nunez isn’t exactly a drastic improvement with the glove either. He’s better at third than he was at second base but still produced -4 defensive runs saved in only 45 games at the position.
Maybe the Red Sox roll with Brock Holt at third base? They value his defensive versatility but in a short series, they can afford to cement him in one spot. He’s not great defensively but he’s not a liability. When the stakes are this high you have to go with your best options.
Holt was on fire in September, hitting .354 with a 1.123 OPS over his last 48 at-bats. Four of his seven home runs this season came in the final month and he enters the postseason riding an 11-game hitting streak.
Devers needs to mash in order to earn a spot in the lineup. Even when he’s hitting, the potential of blowing a playoff game because of another error by the young third baseman is terrifying. Nunez is below average in essentially every aspect of the game.
I say, stick with Holt unless he cools off. If he stops hitting or is needed to fill in elsewhere on the field, the Red Sox should cross their fingers and put Devers in the lineup. Maybe he can run into one, shifting momentum with a mammoth home run.
What role will Steve Pearce play?
We know that Steve Pearce can do some serious damage against the Yankees. Who could forget his three-homer game against them back in August?
The Red Sox acquired Pearce to mash left-handed pitching. He hit .304/.400/.559 against lefties this year, providing a significant upgrade at the plate over Mitch Moreland (.242/.305/.379 vs LHP).
This could make Pearce a valuable x-factor against a Yankees team that will use a pair of lefties in their rotation. Pearce is 11-for-32 (.344) with six home runs and 16 RBI in his career against J.A. Happ. He’s never faced C.C. Sabathia but we can assume Pearce will be in the lineup against him anyway considering how tough the veteran pitcher has been on left-handed hitters (.180 average, .629 OPS).
The Yankees bullpen is stacked with left-handers that could chase Moreland from games he does start. Aroldis Chapman, Zach Britton, and Chad Green are all arms we’ll see out of the Yankees bullpen, providing Pearce with potential pinch-hit opportunities in any game he doesn’t start.
Boston’s lineup collectively hit .250/.325/.395 against lefties compared to .275/.344/.473 against right-handed pitching. With the number of southpaws the Yankees can send at them from the rotation and the bullpen, we’re going to see plenty of Pearce in this series.
While the Red Sox will need Pearce’s bat against lefties, he’s not nearly the defensive player that Moreland is. Pearce could get pulled in favor of the former Gold Glove winner once the left-handed starter is out of the game, especially if the Red Sox have a lead to protect. Choosing when to send in the defensive replacement won’t be easy with all those lefties looming in the bullpen. This strategic chess match can alter a series if manager Alex Cora chooses wisely.
Who can be trusted in the bullpen?
This is an area where the Red Sox have a clear disadvantage against the Yankees. Boston’s 3.72 bullpen ERA ranked only one spot behind the Yankees (3.38 ERA) in the American League but the gap is wider than it appears.
Boston’s bullpen is extremely top-heavy. Craig Kimbrel remains one of the elite closers in the game but the bridge to get to him is rickety. Who else can we trust?
Matt Barnes is the top setup man coming off a career year in which he posted a 3.65 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and an elite 14.01 K/9. However, he was brutal in the second half with a 6.41 ERA after the break. Those struggles may partially be explained by a hip issue that shut him down for a couple weeks in September. Barnes seemed to be back on track until he was blown up for three runs by the Baltimore Orioles.
The best reliever on the team has been Ryan Brasier, who posted a 1.60 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, and 7.75 K/9 in 33 2/3 innings. He’s earned Cora’s trust but we also have to keep in mind this is a pitcher who was out of the majors for five years before making a triumphant return with the Red Sox this season. He’s also never pitched in the postseason so there will be a bit of uneasiness watching him hold a late lead no matter how great he’s been all year.
Those two represent the best options for the seventh and eighth innings. If the starting pitchers can’t go deep into games, forcing the bullpen into action earlier than that, there aren’t a lot of appealing options.
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Joe Kelly has had a frustrating Jekyll and Hyde season. He was lights out in April, May, and August but had an ERA north of 8.00 in the other three months. Which version will we see in October? Good Kelly or Bad Kelly? Maybe Jim Buchanan? Nobody knows.
Brandon Workman was having a good season until we got to September, a month in which he posted a 6.48 ERA. He coughed up three runs in his last appearance against the Yankees.
If Bobby Poyner makes the ALDS roster his role should be limited to being a lefty specialist. He’s holding left-handed hitters to a .143 average and .420 OPS. Unfortunately, the Yankees don’t have any left-handed threats outside of Didi Gregorius. Is Poyner worth carrying on the roster if he’ll only need to face one guy?
The good news is that with only four starters in the postseason rotation, Eduardo Rodriguez can help out of the bullpen. He has limited experience as a reliever but should theoretically thrive in the role since he’s usually very good until the opposing lineup turns over for the third time. Steven Wright can fill a similar role, one that he’s performed admirably in this year. Sure, watching Wright pitch in a tight game with a man on third can be nervewracking but adjusting from the upper 90’s heat of Sale’s fastball to the unpredictability of the knuckleball is equally uncomfortable for hitters.
If the Red Sox can get at least five innings from their starters followed by a couple of innings from Rodriguez/Wright then they can finish the game with Barnes/Brasier and Kimbrel. The ability to get multiple innings out of their converted starting pitchers helps negate the more questionable aspects of this bullpen.
Who will be the Red Sox MVP in this series?
This question boils down to the two players who are in the mix for the AL MVP award this season. In order for the Red Sox to succeed they are going to need the heroics of Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez to continue.
The Yankees set a single-season major league record with 267 home runs. While Boston led the majors by a significant margin in runs scored, runs are harder to manufacture in the postseason. Games can be swayed by the long ball and nobody does that better than the Yankees.
Martinez gives the Red Sox lineup their best chance to keep pace with the Bronx Bombers. He was second in the league with 43 home runs this season. He also destroyed Yankees pitching to the tune of a .333/.367/.597 line with four home runs and 20 RBI in 19 games.
Betts has been even better against New York, slashing .415/.506/.738 against them. He also provided one of the season’s most memorable moments with his dramatic grand slam against Happ.
Brb, reliving last night. pic.twitter.com/dZfLxmTsmM
— Red Sox (@RedSox) July 13, 2018
Betts and Martinez are the first MLB teammates to finish first and second in the majors in both batting average and slugging percentage since 1903. No team in baseball has a more fearsome duo to carry their lineup.
Boston has the two best position players in this series. Is that enough to overcome the depth of a Yankees lineup that boasts seven players who hit 20+ homers and eight with an OPS of at least .820?
Next. Ranking the top 30 Red Sox prospects. dark
The postseason is where the brightest stars shine and the Red Sox will need their stars to lead the charge against the Yankees in this series.