Boston Red Sox stars will factor heavily in the AL MVP race
Boston Red Sox stars Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez both factor heavily in the AL MVP race. Here’s how we rank the top-five candidates.
There are many ways to approach the AL MVP ballot. The term “most valuable” is open to interpretation. Regardless of how you view a player’s value, one thing is clear when accessing the loaded crop of candidates in the American League – the Boston Red Sox are going to be a significant factor in this race.
The Red Sox have a pair of worthy candidates but which will be chosen by those leaning toward rewarding a player from the team with the league’s best record? The better all-around player or the slugger who made a valiant run at the Triple Crown? Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez may split some votes, potentially hindering the chances of either taking home the hardware.
That won’t be a concern for the purposes of these rankings, where the only vote factored in is my own.
How did I go about determining the order of this ballot? Several factors need to be considered. The Red Sox won a franchise record 108 games, five more than any other team in the majors. That certainly helps the case of Betts and Martinez but doesn’t automatically lock them into the top two spots. Players were still given consideration even if they play for teams that fell short of the postseason but we also can’t ignore that they played in fewer meaningful games.
The offensive categories are what typically catch our eye. Everyone digs the home run. However, baserunning and defense still matter. We have to consider everything.
WAR is arguably the best all-encompassing statistic we have at our disposal and is a significant factor that you will see referenced often in these rankings. However, it is not the be-all-end-all. Otherwise, we’d simply be filling out our ballots based on the WAR rankings – a task complicated by the fact that Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs don’t even have players ranked in the same order.
I also left pitchers out of consideration. Technically, pitchers are eligible to win the MVP and it has happened on occasion. I tend to favor position players who contribute on a daily basis over a starting pitcher who only participates once every five days. Relievers don’t pitch enough innings to be a factor in my view. Pitchers have their own award for a reason. There are years where a starter is so dominant that they force their way into the MVP discussion but that’s generally in seasons where worthy position player candidates are limited. That’s not the case this year. I had a hard enough time leaving off several candidates outside of my top five before considering a pitcher.
With these criteria in mind, here’s how I would rank the top-five AL MVP candidates.
Honorable Mention
Close, but no cigar. These players are certain to appear on ballots given that the baseball writers who vote for this award can rank 10 candidates. They all had great seasons but didn’t do quite enough to crack my top five.
You won’t find any Yankees on this list. No, this isn’t an example of a Red Sox fan hating on our greatest rival. The New York Yankees won 100 games and set a major league record for the most home runs hit in a season yet nobody in their lineup stands out as an MVP candidate.
Reigning NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton blasted 38 homers and drove in 100 RBI but was still considered by many to be a disappointment during his first year in pinstripes. Aaron Judge played well on a per game basis but missed too much time with a wrist injury to warrant consideration. Didi Gregorius was an early-season favorite but a brutal slump in May took the shine off his candidacy and he never rediscovered the power stroke he showed in April.
Matt Chapman may have warranted a top-five spot if his strong second half had led the Oakland A’s to a division title. His overall numbers at the plate are more solid than spectacular but voters do love a strong finish and Chapman hit .308 with a .962 OPS after the break. He’s an excellent defensive player with 29 defensive runs saved, giving his value a significant boost. His 8.2 bWAR ranks third in the league and he’s sixth with 6.5 fWAR.
The toughest omission is Francisco Lindor. The Cleveland Indians shortstop won’t win the award considering he’s not even the top candidate on his own team but his numbers aren’t far from his more worthy teammate. Lindor is actually tied with Jose Ramirez with 7.9 bWAR while Fangraphs only gives Ramirez a slight edge, 8.1 to 7.6 WAR.
You can certainly make a case that Lindor belongs in the top-five, I just couldn’t bring myself to put him ahead of any of these five candidates.
Bregman has been the most consistent player on a loaded roster that won 103 games and happens to be the reigning World Series champions.
A breakout was expected for the 24-year old following a strong second half to 2017 and his postseason heroics. Few projected for him to be quite this good so soon. Bregman hit .286/.394/.532 with 31 home runs, 103 RBI, and 10 steals. He led the league with 51 doubles and finished second with 83 extra-base hits. His .396 wOBA, 157 wRC+, and 7.6 fWAR all rank fourth in the league.
Bregman drew the third most walks in the league with 96 and his 13.6 BB% ranked sixth. He racked up all those free passes while maintaining a low 12.1 K% that ranked eighth in the league. Jose Ramirez is the only other AL hitter to finish in the top-eight in both walk and strikeout percentage.
Although Bregman rates a bit below average by most defensive metrics, he still looks solid at third base and has a strong throwing arm. He’s also shown the versatility to slide over to shortstop or second base when needed. Bregman even logged a couple innings in left field this season.
J.D. Martinez
Martinez was worth every cent that the Red Sox spent on him last winter. He was brought to Boston to solve the team’s power deficiency and he did exactly that, blasting 43 home runs to rank second in the league. That total gives him the most home runs ever by a player in their first season with the Red Sox. Martinez also had the most home runs by any Red Sox hitter since David Ortiz set the franchise record with 54 in 2006.
Martinez proved to be an elite run producer with a major league-leading 130 RBI. The home runs clearly helped boost that total but Martinez had a knack for getting clutch hits. He batted .386 with runners in scoring position and .422 with RISP and two outs.
The power numbers obviously stand out but Martinez is more than just a slugger. He hits for average as well, batting .330 to finish second in the batting title race. He joins Jimmie Foxx and Ted Williams as the only Red Sox hitters to hit at least .330 with 40+ home runs and 130+ RBI in a season.
We were on Triple Crown watch with Martinez within striking distance of the league lead in average, homers and RBI deep into September. Had he finished at the top in those three categories it would have set up a similar scenario to what we saw in 2012 when Miguel Cabrera was handed the MVP award because he was the first Triple Crown winner since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967.
The Triple Crown would not have been enough to push Martinez to the top of my list. Just as Mike Trout was the better all-around candidate in 2012, there are others who are more worthy this year. We have so many ways to evaluate production these days. It’s foolish to vote for a player based on three arbitrary categories while ignoring the other data. The Triple Crown remains a special achievement due to how uncommon it is but it shouldn’t lock the player in for MVP honors.
Martinez was the league’s best hitter this year but not the most valuable player. He was primarily a designated hitter and below-average when he did play the outfield. Martinez was also one of the league’s worst base runners with -4.2 BsR.
He merits consideration for his outstanding production at the plate but the five-tool players ahead of him on this list put up stellar numbers with a bat in their hands while also providing value in other areas of the game.
Jose Ramirez
Ramirez had a strong case going for him at the All-Star break but a second-half slide will cost him. The 26-year old saw his batting average plummet to .223 after the break, including a putrid .185 average in September. Voters favor a strong finish and Ramirez simply didn’t give us one.
The overall season numbers still place Ramirez among the elite though. He finished with a .272 average that was derailed by his late-season fade but his .944 OPS was fourth in the league and he was fifth with a .388 OBP.
A few weeks ago, Ramirez had a shot at the home run title, trading places with Martinez at the top seemingly on a daily basis. Oakland’s Khris Davis ended up racing by both of them to lead the league with 47 but Ramirez still finished tied for fourth with 39.
He also finished third with 34 steals, making him one of only two 30/30 players in the majors. You’ve probably heard of the other guy to join that club this year, although it’s worth noting that Ramirez tallied more homers and steals than his fellow 30/30 member.
Ramirez is no Gold Glove candidate but he plays both second and third at an above-average level. He’s a bit better at second base, where he’s been playing since the Indians acquired Josh Donaldson.
His candidacy appeared much stronger when he was hitting over .300, as he’s done in each of the last two seasons, yet Ramirez provided tremendous value in several other areas. His 7.9 bWAR was fourth in the league and he’s third with 8.1 fWAR.
Mike Trout
Trout has been the consensus top pick for the best player on the planet almost since the day he arrived in the big leagues. His talent is off the charts. His problem is that there isn’t much talent around him. Trout has only been to the postseason once in his career and his Los Angeles Angels finished with a losing record (80-82) this season. Is that his fault? Certainly not but can we give the MVP to a player who hasn’t played a meaningful game in over a month?
The answer is that you can, or at least it’s been done before, although you probably shouldn’t. At least not when there are so many other deserving candidates.
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However, we can’t ignore this outstanding production. Trout led the league with 122 walks, a .460 OBP, 1.088 OPS, and 191 wRC+. He was fourth in the league with a .312 batting average and 39 home runs while ranking third with a .628 slugging percentage.
Trout stole 24 bases and posted a 5.0 BsR, both of which ranked ninth in the league. He also provides solid defense with 8 defensive runs saved in center field, which is considered a more premium position than where our other candidates play.
Since 2000, only four players have produced at least 10.0 bWAR in a season. A-Rod did it in his last year with the Seattle Mariners, the best year of his career by this metric. Barry Bonds did it three times in the early part of this century. Trout has now done it three times, including a 10.2 WAR that ranks second this season.
The only other 10+ bWAR season of the 21st century belongs to the hitter who ranks first in that category this year and on this list of MVP candidates.
Mookie Betts
Markus Lynn Betts is the most valuable player in baseball this year, leading the majors with a 10.9 bWAR and 10.0 fWAR. According to FanGraph’s measurement of the statistic, Betts is tied for the 27th greatest season of the modern era.
Betts won his first batting title with a career-high .346 average. He also led the league with 129 runs scored, 84 extra-base hits, .640 SLG, and a .449 wOBA. Betts ranked second with 185 wRC+, .438 OBP, and 1.078 OPS.
With a career-high 32 home runs and 30 stolen bases, Betts joined Jose Ramirez as the only members of the 30/30 club this season. He joins Jacoby Ellsbury (2011) as the only Red Sox players to achieve that milestone. Betts’ home run total is also the most in franchise history by a leadoff hitter.
Betts was second in the league with 47 doubles. It’s the second time in his career that he’s hit 40+ doubles, 5+ triples, and 30+ home runs. The only other Red Sox hitter to do that twice was Ted Williams. Betts is also the only major league player with 40+ doubles and 20+ steals in four consecutive seasons.
Stolen bases aren’t the only factor that makes Betts an elite base runner. He was sixth in the league with 6.7 BsR this season.
The two-time Gold Glove winner is on his way to earning the award for the third consecutive season. His 20 defensive runs saved and 14.7 UZR lead all right fielders by a comfortable margin. He compares favorably to any outfielder with those numbers. While center field is typically deemed a more valuable position, these metrics don’t give Betts enough credit for navigating the notoriously difficult corners in right field at Fenway Park. Betts more than held his own in games he was asked to shift to center field. He even manned second base for a few innings, a position he hadn’t played since he was a rookie.
Next. Ranking the top-30 Red Sox prospects. dark
This is more than merely the best season in the majors this season. Betts has produced one of the greatest in franchise history. When we think about the best seasons by a Red Sox hitter it’s the peak years of Teddy Ballgame, Yaz in ’67, or Big Papi setting the franchise home run record. We can now put Betts in that conversation. It would be a crime for his historically productive season not to be honored with the MVP award.