Red Sox fan’s guide for who to root for in AL Wild Card Game

The Red Sox have locked up their spot in the playoffs but their first opponent is TBD. What team should we hope the Red Sox run into in the ALDS?

As of September 14th, the Boston Red Sox have already won 101 games this season and have clinched a playoff birth. They also hold a commanding 10.5-game lead over the second place New York Yankees in the AL East and an 8.5-game lead over the Houston Astros for the top AL seed.

For the purposes of this article, *knock on wood*, I’m going to assume the Red Sox won’t have a catastrophic meltdown and hold their lead over the rest of the American League. This means that the Red Sox would play the winner of the AL Wild Card Game.

The Wild Card race has yet to be completely settled in the AL. Currently, the A’s are only three games back of the Astros in the AL West and one game back of the Yankees for home field in a one-game playoff series. However, we can say that barring a historic comeback by the Mariners, two of the A’s, Yankees, and Astros will be competing in the AL Wild Card Game. So a natural question for Red Sox fans is who should we be rooting for? What playoff scenario most benefits the Red Sox?

Let’s jump right in and compare these three potential opponents componentwise.

Offense

For a little more context, the Yankees have scored 743 runs with a 109 wRC+, the Athletics have scored 715 runs with a 110 wRC+, and the Astros have scored 724 runs with a 112 wRC+. That’s about as close as any three teams can reasonably get in offensive production so any analysis I could do here would probably just be splitting hairs. There are a few important observations, however.

The first and by far the most important is that the Yankees are currently without Aaron Judge and it is unknown when he will return. With Andrew McCutchen in Judge’s lineup spot, the Yankees probably become the most toothless offense of this grouping.

The second is that the Astros, despite the fact that only two of their hitters have looked legitimately scary, have no real breaks in their entire lineup. Their weakest hitter has been Josh Reddick, but he had a .847 OPS last season.

And the third is that the Athletics have the most offensive weapons. Lucroy is a black hole at the plate, but Stephen Piscotty, Khris Davis, Matt Chapman, and Jed Lowrie are all hitting near an All-Atar level.

If Judge is back in the lineup, I’d definitely be most hesitant to pitch to the Yankees; however, if we are ranking the lineups as they stand I’d probably say the A’s look the strongest, followed closely by the Astros, and then a not insignificant dip to the weakened Yankee offense.

Offensive pecking order: Athletics > Astros > Yankees

Defense

Full disclosure: UZR is far from perfect and isn’t even available for catchers. That said, this one is barely a contest. The A’s lead baseball with a team UZR of 35.4 while the Yankees and Astros sit at 4.8 (14th in baseball) and -12.6 (20th) in baseball. Similarly, the A’s rank third in baseball in Def while the Yankees rank 14th and the Astros rank 21st.

So we already have a pretty clear pecking order among these teams defenses. But it’s worth admiring the A’s defense a little bit anyway. Just look at that infield! All four members rank in the top five at their position in UZR and two of them (Chapman and Olson) are tops among their position in all of baseball. In fact, all four of those players are also worth more defensively than the entire Yankees and Astros teams in both Def and UZR. The Astros and Yankees are both middle of the pack and lack any true standout defensive performers.

Coming into this exercise, I’ll admit the Athletics were a distant third in my mind, but they may be the best offensive and defensive team of this bunch. Even more impressively, their position players also lead all of baseball with 27.7 fWAR.

Defensive pecking order: Athletics >>> Yankees > Astros

Starting Rotation

This is also an easy one. Let’s take a look at how the Astros starting rotation ranks in major pitching categories across baseball: ERA: 1st, FIP: 1st, WHIP: 1st, SO: 1st, IP: 2nd, fWAR: 2nd. Only the Indians even come close to the Astros rotation. Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole form potentially the scariest pitching duo in baseball, but everyone in that rotation is hurling at a near all-star level clip.

The Yankees haven’t been too shabby either. Luis Severino has fallen out of the Cy Young discussion somewhat, but he’s still one of the best in baseball. Meanwhile, Masahiro Tanaka, C.C. Sabathia, and, more recently, J.A. Happ have formed a formidable rotation backbone. Sonny Gray and Lance Lynn have struggled, but their peripherals make it look like they have mostly been unlucky. Overall, there a few steps below the Astros in this department, but I wouldn’t feel overly confident facing this rotation in a short series.

The A’s, on the other hand, have an absolutely hittable rotation. They look at least middle of the pack on the surface with a 4.17 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. But those numbers paint a picture that doesn’t hold up to close examination. One mustn’t forget that the A’s play in one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in baseball. When looking at stats that neutralize environment the A’s fair rather poorly coming 19th in FIP and 20th in fWAR. Aaaand their best pitcher, Sean Manaea, is out for the rest of the season with a shoulder injury.

Starting rotation pecking order: Astros > Yankees >>> Athletics

Conclusion

The conventional wisdom among Red Sox Nation seems to be that the A’s would be the easiest opponent of the three and the Astros would be the toughest. I would say that after going through this piece I agree wholeheartedly that the Astros are the toughest of the group and we should be praying that they hold onto the division.

After that, it gets pretty murky. If the Yankees get Judge back I would say they are the scarier opponent of the two, but that’s far from a guarantee. As is, I would say these teams are pretty close to a push. That means we, as fans, should be indifferent about the winner of the AL Wild Card Game presuming the Astros win the West.

But this is a rooting guide and we watch baseball for entertainment. I think most of us will agree that a Red Sox – Yankees playoff series sounds like the most exciting matchup in years. So with that in mind, the official verdict is that everyone here should be rooting for the Astros to win the AL West and the Yankees to beat the A’s in the Wild Card Game.

Whoever the Sox play, it’s going to be a fun ride.