Boston Red Sox: Three up, three down for the home stretch
We’ve entered the final weeks of the regular season. Some Red Sox are playing their best when it matters most, while others still need to step up.
We’re in the last month of the regular season. The stretch run is finally here. These remaining weeks and games will determine how the MLB playoffs take shape. The players themselves will determine how these games shake out. Whatever happens over the next few weeks could tell us who the next World Series champion will be.
The Boston Red Sox have bludgeoned their opponents into submission for much of the season, and they’ve seen immense contributions from a wide variety of players. Some are locks for the postseason roster. Others, though still seeing significant playing time, could be on the bubble. As the season draws to a close, some of those players are pushing for greater consideration and are doing their parts to keep the Sox well ahead of the ever-dangerous New York Yankees.
The 2011 collapse, though now seven years in the past, remains a fresh wound in the minds of many Red Sox fans and of those in the organization; the fear of a repeat, of complacency, will always be a powerful motivator.
Which Red Sox are stepping up to the proverbial plate at the right time? Which have chosen the wrong moment to shrink? Let’s take a look.
Up: Jackie Bradley Jr.
It’s been a tough season for Jackie Bradley Jr. The defensive wizard has struggled mightily at the plate and has never regained the consistency he displayed a two seasons ago. Even the 2017 campaign, a step back from 2016 by most measures, looks bright in comparison to most of Bradley’s 2018 run.
Yet, thanks to his magical glove, Bradley retained his spot in the regular lineup, and manager Alex Cora‘s patience seems to finally be paying off. Since July 1, Bradley has raised his batting average from .198 to .230. Half of his 12 home runs have come in the seven weeks since the All-Star Break. In August, Bradley really began to come alive.
Last month, Bradley hit .282 with a .827 OPS, numbers encouragingly similar the those of his standout 2016 season. The Red Sox, strong as they’ve been, have had two identifiable weaknesses this year: an unreliable bridge to Craig Kimbrel, and a couple of holes at the bottom of their order. If Bradley really is heating up, he couldn’t have picked a better time to do it. If he can keep it going through September and October, the Red Sox will be that much closer to a World Title.
Up: Joe Kelly
Few relievers got off to a better start than Joe Kelly. He was almost unhittable from April 1 through May 29. Across that span of games, totaling 25.2 innings, he allowed just a single earned run. However, June and July did not treat him nearly as well.
Across the middle months of the summer, Kelly pitched 18.1 innings and allowed 17 earned runs to cross the plate. He never found the rhythm he’d displayed over the season’s first two months, and the bullpen suffered for it. While other relievers rose to the occasion at various times, nobody truly stepped up to fill Kelly’s role. The Red Sox often struggled to get the ball into the hands of Kimbrel; if not for their otherworldly offense, the bullpen might have doomed the season.
Thankfully, in August, the Joe Kelly we all loved in April and May returned. He pitched 12.2 innings last month and surrendered just two earned runs. He also fanned 14 batters, after collecting 15 strikeouts in June and July combined. The Red Sox were expected to target a reliever at the trade deadline. That they did not left many scratching their heads. However, if the Joe Kelly of old is really back, that decision suddenly doesn’t look so bad.
Up: Ryan Brasier
If anyone stepped up to help Kelly shoulder the load during his struggles, it was Ryan Brasier. In July, Brasier came seemingly out of nowhere and posted a 0.90 ERA across 10 innings. If you thought he might come back to Earth once there was enough film on him, you thought wrong.
Brasier followed his breakout month with 12 strong innings in August. Last month, Brasier compiled a 1.50 ERA and 12 strikeouts, a significant uptick from the seven Ks he racked up in July. He also collected his first major league win.
Brasier, Kelly, and Kimbrel can’t do it all themselves, but a strong 1-2-3 in the bullpen will make the Red Sox tough to put down in elimination games. Kelly’s resurgence and Brasier continued strong play will mean as much to Boston in the postseason as any other aspect of the team. Bullpens win playoff games, and the Red Sox officially have at least three relievers they can count on to shut opponents down. If Steven Wright stays in the ‘pen, he’ll be the fourth.
Brasier won’t get the publicity he deserves, but he’ll have as large a role as anyone in whatever success the Red Sox end up finding.
Down: Rick Porcello
With Chris Sale and David Price ailing, the Red Sox needed Rick Porcello to step up and lead the rotation. For much of 2018, Porcello has looked more like he did in 2016 when he won the American League Cy Young Award than he did in 2017 when he allowed 38 home runs. However, Porcello has recently begun to fall back on bad trends.
Pretty Ricky made six starts in August and pitched a total of 37 innings. In those 37 innings, batters left the yard a whopping eight times against Porcello. In comparison, Porcello surrendered nine home runs in June and July combined (57.2 innings).
Rick looked better in his first September start, allowing just two hits over five innings. However, one of those hits was another home run, which remains a cause for immense concern. The Red Sox could have a strong playoff rotation if Price and Sale are healthy and Porcello remembers how to keep the ball in the yard. Unfortunately, at the moment, that looks like a big “if” for Porcello, and he doesn’t have much time to right the ship. The Porcello of April, or even the Porcello of June, needs to make a swift reappearance.
Down: Nathan Eovaldi
Nathan Eovaldi looked like a steal in his first two starts with the Red Sox after being acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays. In the first, he surrendered four hits over seven shutout innings; he was even better, if possible, in his second start, in which he allowed just three hits across eight innings against the Yankees. He looked like a rotation lock for the rest of the season, and possibly for the postseason as well.
However, since that August 4 start against New York, Eovaldi has been mediocre at best, and even that might be too generous. Beginning with a worryingly short outing on August 10, Eovaldi has pitched 22.1 innings and made six starts following his shutout of the Yankees. In that span, he’s allowed 17 earned runs and pitched more than five innings just once. In half of those starts, he allowed four or more runs.
Luckily, his issues are correctable. The command of his secondary stuff, which is what makes him so hard to hit, just hasn’t been there. If that’s caused by a problem in his mechanics, the Red Sox coaching staff will find and fix it. In the meantime, he needs to use his fastball, which can touch triple digits, more often to keep opponents off of his slower offerings. Even if Eovaldi doesn’t remain in the rotation for the postseason, he could still be an important bullpen option.
Down: Drew Pomeranz
Oh, where to begin? This whole season has been one long downturn for Drew Pomeranz, who was so good just a year ago. It was thought before the season began that a rejuvenated Pomeranz would give the Red Sox a four-headed beast of a pitching staff; however, injuries and abysmal performances forced him from the rotation after July.
The hope was that his stuff would play better in the bullpen and that the shorter outings would protect him from the high pitch counts that marked each of his starts.
The theory was sound. Pomeranz has found success as a reliever in the past. His numbers in relief, including a 2.26 career ERA, actually hold up when compared against those of almost any other reliever. In some ways, the switch has helped him. His ERA in August was a solid 3.15, by far his best ERA for a single month this season. However, concerns linger.
For one thing, his velocity isn’t where it should be. He normally throws his fastball in the mid-to-upper-90’s but has been sitting in the low 90’s this year. That makes his offspeed stuff, which is relatively fast, less effective. He’s also been wildly inconsistent from appearance to appearance. Since moving to the bullpen, he allowed zero earned runs in six of 10 outings, but that still leaves four outings, including his most recent one, in which he got roughed up.
Next. Red Sox Prospect Watch: The final week of the 2018 season. dark
As a long reliever, Pomeranz could be incredibly important to the team’s championship hopes. Yet, Pomeranz needs to smooth a few things out before Alex Cora can trust him with playoff innings.