Red Sox MVP candidates face their competition with Cleveland Indians in town
MVP candidates collide when Boston Red Sox stars Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez meet the Cleveland Indians duo of Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor.
The Boston Red Sox host the Cleveland Indians for a four-game series at Fenway Park this week, giving us our first opportunity to watch the top American League MVP candidates go head-to-head.
This series will be loaded with star power. The two most recent AL Cy Young award winners square off to open the series, providing an enticing appetizer. However, the focus will be on this year’s MVP race.
We want our MVP to come from a winning team. That won’t be a problem if you’re scouting this series. Boston leads the majors at 88-37, putting them on pace for a franchise record for wins in a season. They may even challenge the major league record of 116 wins. That alone is reason enough to strongly consider a Red Sox player for MVP.
Cleveland is another team on the short list of contenders. Their 71-52 record pales in comparison to Boston’s yet they have a commanding 12 game lead over the Minnesota Twins in their division. They can essentially stamp their ticket to the postseason.
Four of the top six AL position players in Baseball-Reference’s version of WAR will headline the series. One of those stars seems certain to take home the hardware at the end of the season.
If voters lean toward a candidate from a team with the best record then a Red Sox player seems likely to earn the award. But which one?
Mookie Betts leads the league with 8.2 WAR. He’s leading the batting title race with a .343 average and owns a league-best .449 wOBA. Betts ranks second in the league with a .430 OBP, .652 SLG, 1.082 OPS, 186 wRC+ and 100 runs scored. His 27 home runs and 24 steals also makes him one of only three AL players in the 20/20 club this season. The best right fielder in baseball once again leads his position with 14 defensive runs saved this season.
He’s not the only Red Sox player vying for that MVP trophy. J.D. Martinez has transformed the lineup with his powerful presence. He leads the league with 38 homers, 106 RBI, and a .662 SLG. Martinez is second in the league with a .331 batting average, giving him a legitimate shot at the Triple Crown. He’s also third in the league with a .441 wOBA and .181 wRC+ this season.
Serving primarily as a designated hitter deprives him of the chance to drive up his value with his glove, which is why he ranks only sixth with a 5.7 WAR.
The case for Martinez being the “most valuable” stems from what his addition has meant to the Red Sox lineup. Boston was last in the league in home runs in 2017. Now they rank third while leading the majors in most other offensive categories. Martinez’ production doesn’t account for the entirety of this improvement but the threat of his bat makes everyone around him in the lineup better.
Betts was the runner-up for the MVP in 2016 with David Ortiz hitting behind him, only to regress significantly at the plate last year. Now he’s back in the race with Martinez protecting him in the lineup. That’s not entirely coincidental.
It’s tempting to add Chris Sale to the list. He leads the league with a 1.97 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 13.5 K/9 and 6.6 pitching WAR. I tend to lean against including pitchers in the MVP mix but those numbers are hard to ignore. Unfortunately, Sale’s second stint on the DL will hinder his chances. Depending on how long he’s out this time, his absence could cost him the Cy Young award that he seemed to have locked up prior to this latest setback.
Boston’s dynamic duo may be the frontrunners for the MVP but the Indians have a pair of superstars firmly in the mix.
Jose Ramirez is third in the league with a 7.8 WAR. Fangraphs actually puts him ahead of Betts at a league-leading 8.2 WAR (Betts is second with a 7.7 fWAR). He’s eighth in the league with a .300 batting average and fourth with a .430 wOBA and 174 wRC+.
Ramirez has been going back-and-forth with Martinez for the home run lead over the last few weeks. He enters the day second in that category with 37 and he’s third with 91 RBI. Ramirez also has a share of the league-lead with 27 steals, making him the only 35/25 player in the majors this season.
He’s not the Gold Glove candidate that Mookie is but Ramirez does provide above-average defense at the hot corner and has shown the versatility to handle other positions in previous seasons.
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Ramirez is essentially a slugger who rivals the power production of Martinez, only with baserunning and defense that nearly matches Betts. Martinez has a slight edge in the power department but he’s not a five-tool player. Betts is a better defensive player and about Ramirez’ equal on the base paths but doesn’t have quite the same power stroke. That makes Ramirez the biggest threat to steal the MVP from one of the Red Sox stars, especially if voters split the ballot between Boston’s bats.
Don’t sleep on Francisco Lindor as a darkhorse candidate in this race. He’s fourth in the league with a 6.9 WAR (6.6 fWAR). His 28 home runs and 74 RBI are the most in the league among leadoff hitters. He also has a slight edge over Betts for the league lead with 102 runs scored.
Lindor is second among AL shortstops with 13 defensive runs saved. He doesn’t have the off the charts defensive metrics that Betts has but Lindor does play a premium position at shortstop.
He currently trails the rest of this pack in most categories but not by much. Lindor has a significant edge in the offensive categories over anyone else at his position, so when you consider that this production is coming from a shortstop it makes it all the more impressive. He’s close enough to the rest of his competition that a strong finish could potentially push Lindor to the top.
Are any players from outside of Boston and Cleveland worth considering? Sure, but it would be a stretch to consider any of them the favorite.
Looking at the AL leaderboards, we find Mike Trout‘s name at or near the top of most categories. Many still consider him the best player in baseball and rightfully so. However, his current stint on the disabled list will inevitably cost him in the counting stats. His Los Angeles Angels are hopelessly out of the playoff race, mitigating the value of his production. Trout would have to blow everyone else away with his production in order to warrant the MVP for a .500 ballclub and that isn’t happening.
A case could be made for Alex Bregman, who has been the steadiest of the star player from the reigning champion Houston Astros. Matt Chapman would become a longshot candidate if the Oakland A’s win the west. He’s 5th in the league with 6.8 WAR, although much of his value stems from his stellar defense. He doesn’t have the offensive numbers to overtake the other contenders. Khris Davis and his 36 home runs are more likely to garner attention if the A’s warrant a candidate but he really doesn’t deserve to be in this conversation.
As for the New York Yankees, Aaron Judge was a candidate until he landed on the DL. He suffered a setback that will cost him more time than expected, crushing his MVP chances. Giancarlo Stanton is heating up in the power department with 32 homers but his slow start to the season may have buried him too far in this race. Aside from the home runs, none of his stats pop out as MVP-caliber and he ranks a distant 14th with 3.9 WAR. That puts him behind teammate Aaron Hicks and Red Sox outfielder Andrew Benintendi, who both have 4.1 WAR.
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There’s still over a month left in the regular season to shape this debate but in all likelihood, one of the four candidates from the Red Sox and Indians will win the MVP. How they perform in games featuring other MVP candidates has only a marginal impact on the race but it certainly couldn’t hurt for Betts and Martinez to come up big while the Indians are in town.