How Red Sox compare to 1998 New York Yankees, 2001 Seattle Mariners

BOSTON, MA - APRIL 10: Mookie Betts #50 of the Boston Red Sox celebrates with Brock Holt #12 and Christian Vazquez #7 after hitting a grand slam during the sixth inning against the New York Yankees at Fenway Park on April 10, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
BOSTON, MA - APRIL 10: Mookie Betts #50 of the Boston Red Sox celebrates with Brock Holt #12 and Christian Vazquez #7 after hitting a grand slam during the sixth inning against the New York Yankees at Fenway Park on April 10, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
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BOSTON, MA – APRIL 10: Mookie Betts #50 of the Boston Red Sox celebrates with Brock Holt #12 and Christian Vazquez #7 after hitting a grand slam during the sixth inning against the New York Yankees at Fenway Park on April 10, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
BOSTON, MA – APRIL 10: Mookie Betts #50 of the Boston Red Sox celebrates with Brock Holt #12 and Christian Vazquez #7 after hitting a grand slam during the sixth inning against the New York Yankees at Fenway Park on April 10, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /

The 2018 Red Sox have been winning games at a historic clip. How do they compare to the only two modern teams to ever maintain that level of success?

Since baseball adopted the 162 game schedule in 1961, only two teams have topped 110 wins in the regular season. Those two teams were the 1998 New York Yankees with 114 wins and the 2001 Seattle Mariners with 116 wins. The 2018 Boston Red Sox still have a long way to go to reach the same milestone, but their odds look increasingly strong.

This year’s Red Sox currently sit at 86-36 through the season’s first 121 games and are on pace to win roughly 114 games. To reach 110 they’d need to go 24-16 or better through their final 40 games. For context, 24-17 corresponds to a winning percentage of .600 and the lowest winning percentage the Red Sox posted in any month this season was .621. It’s far from a slam dunk, but I’d give them a better than even shot to become the third modern team to join this elite group.

And that got me thinking “how does Boston compare to those two teams?” Both the ’98 Yankees and ’01 Mariners are right in the thick of any discussion surrounding the greatest baseball squads in recent memory and even being mentioned in the same breathe as those juggernauts should be considered an honor for anyone.

But, as mentioned earlier, the Red Sox are on pace to finish right next to those two clubs in wins at 114. It’s getting to be late enough in the ballgame where we can start to actually analyze how these teams stack up and that’s exactly what we are about to do. Let’s break this down into the lineup, bench, rotation, and bullpen.

BOSTON, MA – APRIL 11: J.D. Martinez #28 of the Boston Red Sox hits a grand slam during the fifth inning against the New York Yankees at Fenway Park on April 11, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
BOSTON, MA – APRIL 11: J.D. Martinez #28 of the Boston Red Sox hits a grand slam during the fifth inning against the New York Yankees at Fenway Park on April 11, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /

Lineup

1998 New York Yankees
PositionNamePAHRBAOBPSLGOPS+
CJorge Posada409170.2680.350.475115
1BTino Martinez608280.2810.3550.505124
2BChuck Knoblauch706170.2650.3610.405102
SSDerek Jeter694190.3240.3840.481127
3BScott Brosius603190.30.3710.472121
LFChad Curtis545100.2430.3550.3690
CFBernie Williams578260.3390.4220.575160
RFPaul O’Neill672240.3170.3720.51130
DHDarryl Strawberry345240.2470.3540.542132
2001 Seattle Mariners
PositionNamePAHRBAOBPSLGOPS+
CDan Wilson408100.2650.3050.40390
1BJohn Olerud679210.3020.4010.472136
2BBret Boone690370.3310.3720.578153
SSCarlos Guillen52350.2590.3330.35587
3BDavid Bell510150.260.3030.41592
LFAl Martin32470.240.330.38293
CFMike Cameron633250.2670.3530.48123
RFIchiro Suzuki73880.350.3810.457126
DHEdgar Martinez581230.3060.4230.543160
2018 Boston Red Sox
PositionNamePAHRBAOBPSLGOPS+
CSandy Leon22850.2120.2670.33261
1BMitch Moreland361140.2540.3210.464109
2BIan Kinsler1100.40.4550.5158
SSXander Bogaerts433170.2750.3510.505128
3BRafael Devers423160.2420.2980.42292
LFAndrew Benintendi508150.2980.3800.500135
CFJackie Bradley Jr.406110.2180.3050.38786
RFMookie Betts466270.3520.4400.668194
DHJ.D. Martinez500370.3330.4020.663181

The ’98 Yankees had far and away the most balanced attack with only one hitter batting below league average and seven hitters that were 15% or more above average by OPS+. These Yankees lacked the star power that the other two lineups feature; they didn’t have a single batter topple thirty homers and only Bernie Williams was truly exceptional at the plate. However, almost everyone in that lineup was a threat to do serious damage and the 2018 Red Sox can’t say anything of the sort.

The ’01 Mariners saw the emergence of Ichiro Suzuki in Major League Baseball and it was sensational. He will never get as much love from a stat like OPS+ as bona fide sluggers, but his .350 batting average coupled with off the charts speed – he stole 56 bases – gave the Mariners one of the best spark plugs in recent memory. Also of note are Brett Boone and Edgar Martinez absolutely mashing and John Olerud and Mike Cameron quietly putting together stellar seasons. These Mariners, however, had four players in their lineup with an OPS below .720 and when almost half your lineup lacks teeth you have to take a backseat to the Yankees lineup listed above.

And finally, we have by far the most lopsided lineup. J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts are having two of the greatest offensive seasons in Red Sox history while Sandy Leon and Eduardo Nunez are looking like black holes at the plate. Jackie Bradley and Rafael Devers aren’t too far removed from black hole status either. Andrew Benintendi and Xander Bogaerts have also been very good and, despite his recent struggles, Moreland still grades out above average. To be fair, Ian Kinsler is the second baseman going forward which removes one hole from the lineup and, when lefties are on the mound, Steve Pearce gives Boston a more formidable presence. But as it stands the Red Sox lineup is very much in the stars and scrubs category with four or five batters generating almost all of the offense every night.

To get a more general picture we should note that the Yankees scored 5.96 runs per game, the Mariners scored 5.72 runs per game, and the Red Sox have scored 5.46 runs per game to date. The Red Sox may have the best offense in baseball this year, but they fall short of these two juggernauts at the plate.

MIAMI, FL – APRIL 03: Jackie Bradley Jr. #19 of the Boston Red Sox makes a diving catch during the second inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park on April 3, 2018 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
MIAMI, FL – APRIL 03: Jackie Bradley Jr. #19 of the Boston Red Sox makes a diving catch during the second inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park on April 3, 2018 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) /

Defense

On the other side of the ball, the Red Sox have strong defenders at just about every position. Betts and JBJ are otherworldy of course. Moreland and Kinsler, upon the second baseman’s return, will make up one of the more formidable duos on the right side of any infield in baseball. Catcher defense is hard to measure, but Baseball Prospectus has Leon 11th in baseball in framing runs and 12th in fielding runs above average for catchers which are very solid placements. Leon also has a great reputation for handling pitchers and it shows in Boston’s 28-3 record in his last 31 starts. Benintendi, Bogaerts, and Devers constitute the weakest portion of their defense and they are all borderline average to average defenders at their positions.

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It’s a lot harder for me to judge the ’98 Yankees and ’01 Mariners defenses. Most defensive metrics don’t go back that far and I’m not old enough to have seen them play with my own eyes so I’ll just default to total zone for the most part here. By these measures, Posada, Brosius, and O’Neill were all great defensively for the Yankees; Jeter and Martinez were above average and everyone else was below average to terrible (Bernie Williams racked up -11 TZ).

The Mariners, on the other hand, were absolutely bonkers good on defense. As a team, they accumulated 101 TZ, which was 37 TZ higher than the next best team. Bell, Boone, Guillen, Suzuki, and Cameron were all particularly stellar but there was not a bad defender in the starting lineup. In fact, according to FanGraphs, this team ranked 5th all-time in TZ (full disclosure: this stat was not calculated on FanGraphs after 2002 so the Mariners rank is among teams between 1871-2001).

BOSTON, MA – SEPTEMBER 08: Brock Holt #12 of the Boston Red Sox takes batting practice before the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Fenway Park on September 8, 2017 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Omar Rawlings/Getty Images)
BOSTON, MA – SEPTEMBER 08: Brock Holt #12 of the Boston Red Sox takes batting practice before the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Fenway Park on September 8, 2017 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Omar Rawlings/Getty Images) /

Bench

1998 New York Yankees
PosNamePAHRBAOBPSLGOPS+
UTTim Raines38250.2900.3950.383107
CJoe Girardi27930.2760.3170.38685
IFLuis Sojo15300.2310.250.26537
DHChili Davis11830.2910.3730.447116
LFRicky Ledee8710.2410.2990.39281
UTHomer Bush7810.380.4210.465134
UTShane Spencer73100.3730.4110.91236
2001 Seattle Mariners
PosNamePAHRBAOBPSLGOPS+
UTMark McLemore48750.2860.3840.406115
LFStan Javier32340.2920.3750.391109
CTom Lampkin23150.2250.3090.34878
UTEd Sprague10720.2980.3740.436119
UTCharles Gipson7200.2190.2820.31361
UTJay Buhner5320.2220.340.4100
2018 Boston Red Sox
PosNamePAHRBAOBPSLGOPS+
UTBrock Holt28430.2680.3490.37296
CChristian Vazquez21830.2130.2490.30048
UTBlake Swihart12510.2260.2880.30461
UTSteve Pearce8760.3100.4250.634181
UTEduardo Nunez41170.260.2850.37476
IFTzu-Wei Lin4900.1820.2650.22736

It’s difficult to decide who counts for the bench on these teams. The Yankees, for example, received massive contributions down the stretch from Homer Bush and Shane Spencer, but both of these players had fewer plate appearances than five other members of the Yankees bench and thus could justifiably have been left off had I cut at the five bench players with the most playing time. I decided to include every player that was not listed in the lineup above with 50 or more plate appearances (Tzu-Wei Lin sneaks in at 49 because Boston hasn’t yet played a full slate).

The Red Sox bench clearly leaves something to be desired outside of Steve Pearce. Pearce has mashed at a rate that no one could’ve foreseen in his short time in Boston. Given how bad the team was against lefties early this season, his presence has been indispensable. However, everyone besides Brock Holt and Pearce has been below replacement level. That is not ideal.

The ’98 Yankees and ’01 Mariners, on the other hand, had very deep benches. In the Bomber’s case, the bench was led by Joe Girardi (a surely familiar name to Yankees fans still), HOFer Tim Raines, old friend Chili Davis, and absolutely insane performances by Homer Bush and Shane Spencer. Spencer, in particular, hit 10 homers in 27 games. Everyone besides Luis Sojo was above replacement level and at least a couple of these guys could’ve had everyday jobs on many first division teams. That’s championship level depth.

Tha ’01 Mariners bench surely seems far more anonymous to most baseball fans. The only name that jumps out is Jay Buhner and he was almost a non-factor on the season. However, Mark McLemore and Stan Javier were worth 3.5 bWAR and 2.8 bWAR off the bench respectively. Each of those totals is way more than the entire Red Sox bench combined.

NEW YORK, NY – JUNE 30: Chris Sale #41 of the Boston Red Sox pitches in the second inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on June 30, 2018 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY – JUNE 30: Chris Sale #41 of the Boston Red Sox pitches in the second inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on June 30, 2018 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) /

Rotation

1998 New York Yankees
PosNameERAGSIPERA+WHIPSO/W
SPAndy Pettitte4.2432216.11041.4471.68
SPDavid Wells3.4930214.11271.0455.62
SPDavid Cone3.5531207.21251.183.54
SPHideki Irabu4.06281731091.2951.66
SPOrlando Hernandez3.13211411421.172.52
SP/RPRamiro Mendoza3.2514130.11371.2351.87
2001 Seattle Mariners
PosNameERAGSIPERA+WHIPSO/W
SPFreddy Garcia3.0534238.21351.1232.36
SPAaron Sele3.60332151151.2422.24
SPJamie Moyer3.4333209.21201.1022.70
SPPaul Abbott4.2527163971.4231.36
SPJohn Halama4.7317110.1871.4321.92
SPJoel Pineiro2.031175.12040.9422.67
2018 Boston Red Sox
PosNameERAGSIPERA+WHIPSO/W
SPRick Porcello4.0425151.21081.1474.17
SPChris Sale1.97231462220.8496.64
SPDavid Price3.7523134.11161.1993.44
SPEduardo Rodriguez3.4419104.21271.2233.44
SPNathan Eovaldi1.99422.22231.194.67
SP/RPBrian Johnson3.958731111.3842.80

The 1998 Yankees, much like their lineup, featured a very balanced rotation. Orlando Hernandez and Ramiro Mendoza posted the best lines, but in far fewer starts than their counterparts at the top of the rotation. Of the pitchers actually taking the ball every fifth day throughout the year, none were otherworldy but all had strong seasons. These Yankees lacked a true ace but their duo of Davids racked up 38 wins while keeping their ERAs about 25% better than league average. Not too shabby all in all.

Without Joel Pineiro’s 11 starts, I’d feel pretty comfortable labeling the Mariner’s rotation as the weakest unit of this group. Freddy Garcia was better than any of the ’98 Yankees starters and Aaron Sele and Jamie Moyer were both very good. However, the bottom two spots in their rotation were occupied by two pitchers that weren’t very good. Neither Paul Abbott or John Halama could strike out two batters per walk or maintain a respectable WHIP and ERA despite pitching in one of the pitcher’s parks in all of baseball.

Pineiro gave them 11 Cy Young quality starts which were a solid boost. If we combine Piniero’s and Halama’s performances and treat that as their fifth starter, which makes sense because they combine for 185.2 innings, we get a 3.64 ERA and 1.23 WHIP for their last slot. Now that rotation looks pretty comparable to New York’s one.

But what about Boston?

Currently, Pomeranz still gets some starts, but when E-Rod returns he should be going by the wayside. That removes their one weak spot in their rotation and gives them six above-average starters.

One of those starters is Chris Sale who is in the middle of the best season for any Red Sox pitcher since Pedro Martinez in 2000. This group leads the ’98 Yankees and ’01 Mariners in ERA, WHIP, K/BB, and ERA+.

With Pomeranz in the fifth spot, I’d probably give Boston’s unit a slight edge over these two teams, but with Eovaldi in the place of Pomeranz, they are significantly better than the starting rotations of both of these clubs.

CLEVELAND, OH – AUGUST 15: Closing pitcher Craig Kimbrel #46 of the Boston Red Sox celebrates after the final out against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field on August 15, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Red Sox defeated the Indians 3-2. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)
CLEVELAND, OH – AUGUST 15: Closing pitcher Craig Kimbrel #46 of the Boston Red Sox celebrates after the final out against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field on August 15, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Red Sox defeated the Indians 3-2. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) /

Bullpen

1998 New York Yankees
PosNameERAGIPERA+WHIPSO/W
CLMariano Rivera1.915461.12331.062.12
RPMike Stanton5.476779811.2282.65
RPJeff Nelson3.794540.11181.6361.59
RPGraeme Lloyd1.675037.22670.853.33
RPDarren Holmes3.333451.11341.3052.21
RPMike Buddie5.622441.2791.4161.54
2001 Seattle Mariners
PosNameERAGIPERA+WHIPSO/W
CLKazuhiro Sasaki3.246966.21280.8855.64
RPArthur Rhodes1.7271682410.8536.92
RPJose Paniagua4.366066951.471.21
RPJeff Nelson2.766965.11501.1332.0
RPNorm Charlton3.024447.21380.9864.36
RPRyan Franklin3.563878.11161.2772.5
2018 Boston Red Sox
PosNameERAGIPERA+WHIPSO/W
CLCraig Kimbrel2.5250501741.043.3
RPHector Velazquez2.773561.21581.3782.12
RPMatt Barnes2.6051521691.1353.12
RPJoe Kelly4.295450.11021.2722.0
RPHeath Hembree3.8651491141.3672.78
SP/RPSteven Wright3.3810401301.251.55

I will start by reiterating that I am assuming Pomeranz is the odd man out when E-Rod returns.

It’s interesting that the narrative around the Red Sox this season has been that their bullpen is their biggest weakness. Craig Kimbrel has not been nearly as good as he was in a historically great campaign last season but he’s still 74% better than league average. Matt Barnes and Hector Velazquez (even if he looks very lucky) have also been elite this season.

Yes, the bullpen did a bad job last night, but Pomeranz just shouldn’t be pitching. They are the only unit here without a below average reliever (from the six we’d expect the Sox to keep in the pen when everyone’s healthy) and their back end looks as solid as those of both of these other pens.

The Yankees bullpen largely revolved around Mariano Rivera with the only other truly great reliever that season being Graeme Lloyd who only tossed 37.2 innings. Their bullpen also featured two pitchers with ERAs over 5.00. The ’98 Yankees were world beaters, but not necessarily because of their relief pitching.

The Mariners had Arthur Rhodes in the midst of an utterly fantastic season, but their pen also featured Jeff Nelson, Norm Charlton, and Kazuhiro Sasaki as true weapons. Ryan Franklin was also very solid and ate up a good amount of innings. The 2001 Mariners topped these two teams in nearly every category listed above and had a solid edge over the 2018 Sox and 1998 Yanks.

BOSTON, MA – APRIL 10: Manager Alex Cora of the Boston Red Sox looks on from the dugout before the game against the New York Yankees at Fenway Park on April 10, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
BOSTON, MA – APRIL 10: Manager Alex Cora of the Boston Red Sox looks on from the dugout before the game against the New York Yankees at Fenway Park on April 10, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /

Conclusion

It’s hard to say these Red Sox are as good as the 1998 Bombers or the 2001 Mariners. They probably have the best rotation of the bunch and their defense and bullpen hold up okay. However, they are last among the trio in hitting and depth by a significant margin.

The Red Sox may be on pace to almost catch these two teams as it stands; however, these teams clinched early on and were able to rest players for the latter portion of the season and still won at this insane clip. Once the Red Sox begin resting players for the same reason it remains to be seen if they can still play .700 baseball, but it certainly isn’t likely with the bench they possess.

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All things considered, the 2018 Red Sox are probably a step or two behind these two clubs. But don’t let that bring you down because that’s as close as any other teams have ever gotten since and they may very well be the best of the rest.

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