Red Sox: Calculating the odds J.D. Martinez wins the triple crown

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BOSTON, MA – JUNE 27: J.D. Martinez #28 hugs Brock Holt #12 of the Boston Red Sox after hitting a three-run home run in the second inning of a game against the Los Angeles Angels at Fenway Park on June 27, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images) /

Triple Crown Odds

To put these all together we simply multiply the percentages to calculate the odds of Martinez leading the league in each category.

.50 x .225 x .111 = .0124875

So we have found the lower bound for J.D. Martinez’s triple crown odds to be approximately 1.25%.

That’s not particularly likely of course, but stranger things have happened and this is still just a lower bound. When adjusting for the lack of independence of these categories my gut tells me it’s closer to 3-5% (which is not, by any means, a scientific estimate).

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But if there’s any conclusion from this piece it’s that winning the triple crown is really, really hard no matter how great of a season you’re having and everything has to break just right. Let’s hope it does.

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