Red Sox: Calculating the odds J.D. Martinez wins the triple crown
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Triple Crown Odds
To put these all together we simply multiply the percentages to calculate the odds of Martinez leading the league in each category.
.50 x .225 x .111 = .0124875
So we have found the lower bound for J.D. Martinez’s triple crown odds to be approximately 1.25%.
That’s not particularly likely of course, but stranger things have happened and this is still just a lower bound. When adjusting for the lack of independence of these categories my gut tells me it’s closer to 3-5% (which is not, by any means, a scientific estimate).
But if there’s any conclusion from this piece it’s that winning the triple crown is really, really hard no matter how great of a season you’re having and everything has to break just right. Let’s hope it does.