Home Runs
This one is more complicated only because Martinez is tied at the top of the American League with Jose Ramirez at 32 dingers a piece. So we will use the same methodology as above, ignoring the fact that Ramirez exists, and then divide the resulting odds by two to account for the Indian’s slugger.
| Year | League | Leader on 7/31 | Margin | Did he win? | League | Leader on 7/31 | Margin | Did he win? |
| 2017 | AL | Aaron Judge | 3 | Yes | NL | Giancarlo Stanton | 5 | Yes |
| 2016 | AL | Mark Trumbo | 1 | Yes | NL | Trevor Story | 1 | No |
| 2015 | AL | Mike Trout | 1 | No | NL | Nolan Arenado | 2 | Yes |
| 2014 | AL | Jose Abreu | 2 | No | NL | Anthony Rizzo | 1 | No |
| 2013 | AL | Chris Davis | 6 | Yes | NL | Pedro Alvarez | 1 | Yes |
| 2012 | AL | Adam Dunn | 2 | No | NL | Ryan Bruan | 5 | Yes |
| 2011 | AL | Jose Bautista | 2 | Yes | NL | Lance Berkman | 1 | No |
| 2010 | AL | Jose Bautista | 6 | Yes | NL | Joey Votto | 3 | No |
| 2009 | AL | Tie | Tie | Void | NL | Albert Pujols | 6 | Yes |
| 2008 | AL | Carlos Quentin | 2 | No | NL | Adam Dunn | 2 | No |
| 2007 | AL | Alex Rodriguez | 7 | Yes | NL | Prince Fielder | 1 | Yes |
| 2006 | AL | David Ortiz | 2 | Yes | NL | Ryan Howard | 2 | Yes |
| 2005 | AL | Tie | Tie | Void | NL | Tie | Tie | Void |
| 2004 | AL | Tie | Tie | Void | NL | Jim Thome | 2 | No |
| 2003 | AL | Carlos Delgado | 1 | No | NL | Barry Bonds | 4 | No |
| 2002 | AL | Alex Rodriguez | 4 | Yes | NL | Sammy Sosa | 1 | Yes |
In 16 of the 28 non-void data points, the league leader in homers on July 31 went on to lead his respective league in home runs. We could be more cynical and look at years where the league leader was above his closest competitor by three homers or less (Martinez and Ramirez sit three homers above Mike Trout). In these cases, the player went on to lead his league in homers nine times out of twenty (again, throwing away voided data points).
Going with that number, there is at least a 45% chance Ramirez or Martinez will lead the league in round-trippers. Cutting that in half, we get a 22.5% chance Martinez leads the AL in homers.