Red Sox Rumors: What’s left for Dombrowski on the reliever market?
The big names are off the board. The Red Sox still need bullpen help. What are their options? More varied than you might think.
Stop me if you’ve heard this one: The Boston Red Sox need bullpen help. Cutting edge analysis, I know. But they do. Until Dave Dombrowski trades for another arm, this will continue to be a focus of writers everywhere. Because when Matt Barnes and his 12.3% walk rate is your best non-closer option, and the next best reliever is a few steps behind that, you aren’t ready for October. Every pen has question marks, but the Red Sox have more than most. Or, at least, most of the contenders.
We’ve recently written about Keone Kela and Kelvin Herrera, the two remaining high profile reliever names still on the market. You can read about the Washington Nationals reliever here. And you can read about the Texas Rangers closer here. But what about the less talked about names? The under the radar types that you didn’t see coming? Dave Dombrowski has already shocked Red Sox fans by acquiring Nathan Eovaldi from the Tampa Bay Rays. Could he do the same here? Below is a list of potential targets that could pop up in rumors over the next few days*.
American League Central arms.
Fernando Rodney – MIN
The Red Sox got an up close and personal look at Rodney the last two nights, for good and for ill. The 41-year-old closer is having a fairly typical season with a 3.49 ERA sitting atop a 3.94 FIP and a 3.83 xFIP. His K/9 has been at 10 or higher the for the last three seasons. But it’s his BB/9, which dropped to 3.49 this year, that is keeping him a relevant option. Of course, he suffers from Matt Barnes disease and will occasionally lose the zone entirely. We saw this on Thursday night when he nearly blew the game by issuing walks to Xander Bogaerts and Brock Holt before running the count full to Jackie Bradley Jr. He finished Bradley off with a high fastball to end the game, but the downside was on full display. Rodney has a 2019 club option.
Nate Jones – CWS
Nate Jones has been part of trade rumors involving the Chicago White Sox for a few years. At 32 years old he is likely not going to be part of the next great White Sox team, and they may try to cash in on his value soon. He’s got plenty of it, despite a 5.11 BB/9. With a league minimum team option in 2019 followed by two relatively cheap team options in the next two seasons, he is quite cost controlled. He also has a track record of success. A 2.55 ERA this season may not look great next to a 4.62 FIP and a 4.84 xFIP but he is striking out 9.85 per nine innings. And an ERA in the 2’s stretches back to the start of 2016. Jones has some of the same issues as Matt Barnes, and he will cost some significant prospect capital. So he may not be the most efficient use of resources. But he is one of the few known quantities left on the market and Dombrowski should be plenty familiar with him from his time in the Detroit Tigers front office.
Alex Wilson – DET
Speaking of the Tigers, the Red Sox could seek a prodigal son in Alex Wilson. Wilson spent the first 6 seasons of his professional career as part of the Red Sox organization. He was sent to Detroit as part of the Rick Porcello trade. A reunion would make some sense as he has one more arbitration eligible season left and the Tigers may be happy to convert him to prospects given their ongoing rebuild. Wilson 3.32 ERA with a 2.21 BB/9 but he only strikes out 5.53 per nine innings. He induces ground balls about half the time. While the infield defense is a bit suspect, however, this might not be the best option on the table.
*All stats current as of the morning of July 28.
The other Rangers and an Angel.
Jake Diekman – TEX
If the Texas Rangers are hitting the reset button then Jake Diekman is one of the pieces they should be shopping. The 31-year-old lefty is a free agent at the end of the season and would add some balance to a heavily right handed pen in Boston. Diekman’s ERA of 3.89 could be due for a little regression. His FIP is 3.59. Of course his xFIP is 4.31 and his BB/9 is a whopping 5.59. But he strikes out more than 10 batters per nine innings pitched and has a reverse split, holding RHB to a .271 wOBA. That would make him an intriguing weapon against the New York Yankees. And given the fact that he is a rental with warts, the cost shouldn’t be too high. He wouldn’t top my wish list, but the Red Sox could do worse at the deadline.
Jim Johnson – LAA
The Los Angeles Angels are 14 games out of the West and 9 back of a Wild Card spot. They should be selling despite getting off to an unexpectedly hot start. That means selling off any rental they can, and that means Jim Johnson. Johnson is having a solid year out of the pen, posting a 3.52 ERA in front of a 3.89 FIP and a 4.01 xFIP. He strikes out 7.75 per nine, but was up over a batter per inning the previous two seasons. His walk rate fluctuates, but is at a respectable 3.29 per nine this season. And perhaps more importantly, he is a weapon against righties. For the year he has allowed just a .242 wOBA against them. The cost should be low so this could be a sneaky good get if that’s what Dombrowski ends up with.
Could the National League East hold the answer?
Kyle Barraclough – MIA
This isn’t the first time Kyle Barraclough’s name has come up in Red Sox trade speculation. But it bears repeating here. Barraclough, and the next name on the list are both cost controlled and will cost a bit extra. While the next entry isn’t even arbitration eligible yet, Barraclough is starting this winter and the penny pinching Marlins may be willing to move him for a decent package. With nifty 2.41 ERA and a 10.20 K/9, the Marlins current closer would bring a skillset similar to Matt Barnes to the table, giving Alex Cora the ability to ride the hot hand at any given moment. A 4.80 BB/9 is concerning, but the years of control could outweigh it. Barraclough has been equally as effective against left and right handed hitters this season.
Drew Steckenrider – MIA
The other Marlins reliever on this list has been part of a recent rumor, and while it appears the price is currently too high, that could change by the deadline. Steckenrider is not yet arbitration eligible, making him even more valuable than Barraclough. Additionally, he sports a 3.40 ERA with a 2.94 FIP and a 3.97 xFIP. The results he gets from his 10.20 K/9 are mitigated slightly by a 4.00 BB/9, but the overall package is an encouraging one. He would give the Red Sox another late inning weapon to mix with Barnes and Eovaldi for the playoffs. And like several previous entries on this list, he keeps right handed batters from doing much damage with a .225 wOBA against.
The Reds. All of them.
Raisel Iglesias – CIN
Raisel Iglesias is cost controlled through the end of 2020, and as such, will not be cheap. That said, if the Red Sox are going to part with a trade chip like Michael Chavis, this is the arm to do it for. His ERA’s this season is 2.14. That follows seasons in which he posted a 2.52 and then a 2.49. He gets results. The strikeout rate hangs out around a batter per inning, and the walk rate rarely gets over 3 per nine innings pitched. If acquired, he would be a fine replacement for Craig Kimbrel who is likely to test the free agent market and may price himself out of Boston’s reach. Iglesias throws a fastball, slider, changeup mix with the heater living in the mid-90’s. If you are pulling for anyone on this list, make it Raisel Iglesias, price be dammed.
Jared Hughes – CIN
And if Iglesias proves to be just a little too expensive, Jared Hughes is a fine consolation prize. Like the Reds closer, Hughes is cost controlled through the 2020 season, with that final year being a team option. Having spent his entire career in the N.L. Central, he has been a solid to excellent reliever going back as far as 2014. This season he has a 1.51 ERA with a 3.14 FIP and a 3.49 xFIP. The K/9 is just 7.04 but he induces a 66% ground balls. While I would prefer Raisel Iglesias, if the Red Sox came out of negotiations with the Reds with Jared Hughes at a lower cost, we should all be happy with the return.
The Reds. The last of them. And a Cardinal.
David Hernandez – CIN
Another option from Cincinnati is 33-year-old righty David Hernandez. The journeyman is in the midst of a career year and is under control through the end of next season. Though he has an unsustainably low HR/FB of 4.5%, he is striking out nearly a batter per inning and is only walking 2.97 per nine. Hernandez does not display a significant platoon split and could be used in any late inning situation.
Bud Norris – STL
The 33-year-old Norris is on a one year deal with the Cardinals who may decide to cell before the deadline comes. If they do, Norris should be one of the more movable pieces they have. Having established himself as viable closer option in 2017, he has followed up with a 3.21 ERA, a 3.00 FIP and a 2.91 xFIP in 2018. His stuff has translated to the bullpen well where he strikes out 11.57 per nine, walks just 1.71 per nine, and has converted 20 of 23 save opportunities. You may not think of Bud Norris when considering name value closers, but he should qualify.
The N.L. West is our last stop.
Kirby Yates – SDP
Kirby Yates inherited the closer role from Brad Hand when he departed for Cleveland in one of the earlier trade deadline deals. Yates was an okay reliever in 2017 with a 3.97 ERA, but has been utterly dominant this season. A 1.40 ERA with a 2.00 FIP and a 2.72 xFIP suggest that what we are seeing is genuine success and is not driven by unsustainable good luck or defense. An 11.64 K/9 is supported by a 2.56 BB/9 and a 50.6 GB%. The one area of concern is a 4% HR/FB which is almost assuredly due for some regression given his career 15.5% rate. That said, he appears to have figured something out this year, which is a good thing for the Padres who traded for him last season. The 31-year-old Yates is a free agent at the end of this year and should fetch a decent prospect for the Friars.
Craig Stammen – SDP
Craig Stammen has spent the last two seasons in San Diego and has been excellent for both of them. A 3.14 ERA last year has been followed up with a 2.70 this season, to go along with a 1.92 FIP and a 2.94 xFIP. His 10.26 K/9 looks quite nice next to a 1.80 BB/9. That’s a 5.70 K/BB ratio, which is good for 13th best in the majors among relievers. On top of all that, he induces ground balls 51.9% of the time and has had single digit HR/FB rates in 3 of his last 4 healthy seasons. Even still, that 2.6% from this year is bound to regress a little.
That’s a lot of names, and some of them may even be a bit of a stretch. But if Dave Dombrowski has shown us anything, it’s that he can be unpredictable. The Red Sox will almost assuredly improve their bullpen before the seasons ends. It may be before the July 31st deadline. It may be before the August 31st waiver wire deadline. But it is incredibly unlikely that the team will stand pat. With less than three days to go before the deadline the rumors should be flying the rest of the way.
Next. What options do the Red Sox have for improving second base?. dark
Who do you want to see the Red Sox add to the pen? What are you willing to part with to get it done? Let us know in the comments!