Red Sox trade deadline target: Orioles reliever Zach Britton

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The Boston Red Sox are in need of significant help in the bullpen. So it’s no surprise that they have interest in Orioles reliever Zach Britton.

With Brad Hand and Jeurys Familia off the board, Baltimore Orioles closer Zach Britton is the best reliever remaining on the trade market this July. After Craig Kimbrel, the Red Sox don’t have a lock-down option for the late innings. Matt Barnes has been going well lately, but has had his issues this season. And even with a nifty ERA, FIP and xFIP, is still walking 4.60 batters per nine innings. That’s a 12.3% rate, which is the 19th worst in all of baseball. Joe Kelly now has a 4.31 ERA on the season and has given up 5 ER in his last two outings. Tyler Thornburg’s first 4.1 IP with the Red Sox have been a disaster. And Carson Smith is out for the season. Again.

That’s every name that was supposed to be in the mix for those non-save high leverage late innings this season. And every single one of them is a question mark. The minor leagues don’t seem to have an answer either. At least, not unless a June draftee can defy the odds and go from throwing in college games to locking down the 8th in October within the span of five months. So what is a championship hopeful team to do? Hit the trade market, of course.

The answer may be right down I-95.

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Looking at Zach Britton’s season line you might not be inclined to think he’s any more the answer than Matt Barnes. But his season line doesn’t tell us the entire story. Currently he’s sitting on a 3.45 ERA with a 4.43 FIP and a 4.01 xFIP. His 7.47 K/9 leaves a lot to be desired and his 5.47 BB/9 is a bit frightening. So why should the Red Sox give up valuable trade chips to add him to the mix? Well, Britton missed most of the first half of the season recovering from a ruptured Achilles tendon. He returned to major league game action on June 12. That was after just 5.1 IP in the minors to get back up to speed. So, essentially, Britton went through his spring training against major league hitters who were already in full swing.

So it’s not surprising that he gave up 4 ER against the Braves on June 22. Since then he has given up just 2 ER in 11 IP and none in his last eight appearances. Does he look like the dominant closer he was from 2014 through 2015? No, not quite. But he has looked mighty effective since that one meltdown against the National League’s third best offense. Especially since he was still ramping his fastball velocity up at that point. His game log at Brooks Baseball shows he was still throwing the heater around 94 MPH that night. It wasn’t until July 7 that his average fastball velocity ticked up over 95 MPH in a game. Since then it has lived between 95 and 96 MPH. And that time span correlates pretty well with the 8 game scoreless streak he’s on.

Is he really a sure thing, though?

Of course, parsing out smaller samples to make a point is often treacherous ground to walk on. One bad outing tomorrow could throw the whole narrative out the window. That said, there are signs that he’s building his arm strength back up to where it was in 2014 and 2017. It peaked between those years, but he was extremely effective in 2014 and was still really good last year. If he can keep his fastball velocity in the 95-96 MPH range, he should be at least as good as Matt Barnes.

And at this point, that’s probably the best they can hope for. Adding another pitcher with the ability to dominate like Barnes does, but has that lingering question lurking about in the background at least allows Alex Cora to go with the hot hand in any given series. If you were to give me the choice between pairing Barnes with anyone else in the Boston pen right now or with Zach Britton, I’m taking Britton in a heartbeat. He might not be quite as dominant as Brad Hand or Jeurys Familia, but he’s as close as they are going to get this July.

What would it cost?

Who would the centerpiece be?

The top prospect in the Machado deal was outfielder Yusniel Diaz who is ranked the 84th overall prospect in baseball by MLB Pipeline. That puts him in the same range as Michael Chavis (63) and Jay Groome (76). If Britton is not worth as much as Machado, however, that could mean both should be off the table. Especially if the market for relievers in contract years is down, as the Familia trade indicates. So what else can the Red Sox offer? To many, Bryan Mata has leapfrogged the injured Jay Groome to become the top pitching prospect in the system. His ceiling isn’t as high, but he’s healthy and has been productive despite being young for the league he’s playing in. If push comes to shove, I’d probably rather hang on to the ceiling Groome offers than the current success of Mata. But it would still sting to see him as the centerpiece.

Beyond Mata, and assuming this year’s draftees won’t be on the table, there’s Tanner Houck, who has great late inning potential in the bullpen if he doesn’t pan out as a starter. Then there are Mike Shawaryn and Jalen Beeks who are near major league ready starting pitchers with solid floors but limited ceilings. Josh Ockimey is looking increasingly like the strong side of a platoon at first base which has some value. Then there is C.J. Chatham, a big solid-fielding shortstop who makes good contact but lacks in game power. And finally we have Bobby Dalbec, who has been absolutely mashing after a lost 2017 season and huge questions about his strikeout rate. That rounds out the current top 10 according to soxprospects.com.

So what would a package look like?

With the caveat that this is all speculation and is based on a fluid and often unpredictable market, let’s say the centerpiece ends up being Bryan Mata. It’s a steep price to pay, but the Red Sox are all in on this contention window. Plus, it’s Dave Dombrowski. He’s contractually obligated to make every big ticket trade hurt for prospect lovers. What else could we see added, though? Josh Ockimey doesn’t make much sense for the O’s unless they pull a Pablo Sandoval with Chris Davis. I doubt they’re ready to pull that particular plug, though. So someone like Bobby Dalbec is more likely to be on their radar. Ryan Mountcastle is their answer at third long term, but Dalbec could slide over to 1st and move Chris Davis to DH. And it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Dalbec could play a passable corner outfield given his arm strength.

After that, it would just be filler types with upside. Maybe a starting pitcher like Darwinzon Hernandez or a near major league ready reliever like Travis Lakins. Likewise, Ty Buttrey could be intriguing to the Orioles front office. That leaves us with something in the vein of Mata, Dalbec, Buttrey, and probably a far away lotto ticket type with an impact tool like the speedy Tyler Hill or the raw power-speed combo of Tyler Dearden. Is it too much to pay? That’s all relative. It would certainly sting to see that much talent go out for a relief pitching rental. But this Red Sox team has a fairly specific window where they can expect to be among the elite teams in the majors and it makes sense to expend whatever resources are necessary to capitalize on that window.

Next: Are the Red Sox interested in Mike Fiers?

As it stands, it’s hard to imagine this bullpen holding up against the Yankees or Astros in the playoffs. Or even the surging Indians. Never mind the Dodgers or the Cubs if they are lucky enough to reach the World Series. Rip the band-aid off and go for it. Don’t be that guy who ends up losing 95% of your chips on the river because you wouldn’t call a bet that puts you all-in. At this point, you’ve gotta see that last card. You’re pot committed. What would you give up for Britton? Is the above too much? Not enough? Let us know in the comments!

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