Red Sox Senior VP Frank Wren scouting for trade deadline help

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Last year around this time Red Sox Senior VP of Baseball Operations Frank Wren was scouting Eduardo Nunez in San Francisco. Could a deal be on the horizon?

Red Sox senior Vice President of Baseball Operations Frank Wren is in Kansas City this weekend scouting talent. When Frank Wren is somewhere scouting talent, Dombrowski is in discussions on someone. Despite a league best 69-30 record, this Red Sox team has some significant flaws and needs to make some moves before the deadline. They have already signaled their willingness to go past the $237M final threshold and incur the heaviest penalties under the current CBA.

That means payroll won’t be a limiting factor over the next week or so. And it likely means they don’t have to pick one area to fix while hoping the rest gets fixed internally. So who would the Red Sox be targeting in this instance? Well, there are a number of possibilities, given the team’s needs.

The needs…

The bullpen has been in need of an upgrade since the winter. Matt Barnes and Joe Kelly have, thankfully, alternated periods of dominance so far. But neither can be trusted in a big spot in October because both are prone to mental lapses where they completely lose the zone. Carson Smith is out for another year with a shoulder injury. And Tyler Thornburg, recently back from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery, has not found his dominance again.

Dustin Pedroia‘s return was brief and his season is now in doubt. And Brock Holt suffered a bruised knee in last night’s game, further depleting second base depth. Eduardo Nunez has not repeated his excellent stint with the Red Sox from 2017. So he’s not the answer either.

The starting rotation has sprung a leak as well. Eduardo Rodriguez just landed back on the DL with a bad ankle sprain. Steven Wright is also back on the DL. Drew Pomeranz is trying to come back from biceps tendinitis and has struggled all year. So the team could be looking for anything. Here are some names that might pop up in rumors:

The closers.

With reports that Jeurys Familia may be headed to Oakland, Dombrowski may be turning to other relievers. And the first name to come to mind is Fernando Rodney, the current closer for the Twins. Rodney pitched for the Tigers until 2009, so Dave Dombrowski is familiar with him. And he’s having a solid season. In fact, that’s about all you can say about him most years. He’s a solid reliever, but he’s never dominant. Generally speaking, his walk rate is the indicator of whether he’s having a good year or not. And this season it’s down to 3.12 per nine innings. The Red Sox could do far worse for a setup man. Rodney has a club option for 2019 with a small buyout.

The Royals also have a closer they’d likely be happy to move in Wily Peralta. Peralta isn’t as good as Rodney, but he likely wouldn’t cost as much in trade chips. While he has a massive issue with walking batters, posting a 7.71 BB/9, he has still managed a 3.86 ERA with a 3.58 FIP. The Royals closer is striking out more than a batter per inning, and has a .333 BABIP, so he’s not benefiting from absurd luck on balls in play. Even still, there are non-closer targets on these two rosters I’d rather see the Red Sox gamble on. Peralta also has a 2019 club option with a tiny buyout.

The non-closers.

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Zach Duke is on a one year contract and is having a very solid season. His 3.38 ERA bisects his 2.72 FIP and 3.76 xFIP nicely. He’s striking out a batter per inning and is walking almost 4% fewer batters than Matt Barnes. If nothing else he would be a nice addition to the existing mix of relievers vying for high leverage innings. Prior to his poor 2017, Duke had three straight strong seasons for results. He may be this year’s Addison Reed.

Speaking of Reed, he could be on the team’s radar as he did have a mostly successful run in Boston last year. But he has struggled mightily in 2018 posting a 4.83 ERA. His FIP and xFIP are in the same range, so it’s not just poor luck. But there is reason to hope he’ll improve. The K/9 is 8.12 and his BB/9 is 2.85. You’d expect better results and a .330 BABIP might indicate he’s due for positive regression. A 10 point drop in LOB% is probably attributable to that 66 point jump in BABIP. I wouldn’t want Reed to be the sole answer for the pen, but he could be a good buy low candidate for the second half.

Ryan Pressly is actually in his arb 2 year, meaning he’s cost controlled for another season. That said, he’s only cost controlled for one more season and the Twins may not expect to be a playoff contender for it. Pressly has a solid 3.63 ERA with a 2.95 FIP and a 2.72 xFIP suggesting he might be a bit better than that. And he’s striking out 13.50 per nine innings (that’s 34%, which is elite). Of all the options listed above, Pressly is my favorite. He helps beyond this year, and he has elite strikeout stuff, which is what you are looking for in close and late situations.

The starters.

It’s possible the Red Sox are actually looking for a starting pitcher, given Eduardo Rodriguez’s unfortunate DL stint. Jake Odorizzi is, like Ryan Pressly, cost controlled for another year. That’s the bulk of his appeal, though. A 4.54 ERA is slightly better than his FIP and xFIP, so he appears to be essentially what his ERA says he is. But if Dave Dombrowski decides that filling in the rotation from the back end is the best they can do, Odorizzi can given them that much.

Lance Lynn is another option, but would be an example of buying into ceiling over current production. Lynn’s 3.43 ERA from 2017 was unsustainable given his .244 BABIP. But he’s likely better than the 5.22 ERA he has this season. Again, we’re not talking about a strong number two here, but filling in the back of the rotation should be something Lynn can provide.

Kyle Gibson is probably the most likely target here. He’s controllable for another year before he hits free agency for the first time, and he’s having a very strong season. In fact, he’d be a great replacement for the 2017 version of Drew Pomeranz that hasn’t materialized this season and will be hitting the market this winter. Gibson has a 3.57 ERA with a FIP and xFIP to match. He’s striking out almost a batter per nine and has a sustainable BABIP. And he’ll be going into a contract year next season. If the Red Sox are scouting for starting pitching, this is where I’d like to see them throw their chips.

The second basemen.

This may be the most obvious possibility. The Red Sox need a second baseman. Badly. Dustin Pedroia’s status is difficult to assess, and even if Holt isn’t out long, he’s better utilized bouncing around the field. Enter Brian Dozier. Dozier is a free agent this winter and is typically a big second half hitter. Over the last three seasons he’s finished with 28, 42 and 34 home runs. For his career he has a 118 wRC+ in the second half versus a 103 in the first. Last season it was 95 and 158. The year before it was 109 and 155. You can see the pattern here. This is a great time to buy in on Dozier and the fact that he’s a rental means the cost shouldn’t be too high. Manny Machado got moved without a single top 50 prospect heading to Baltimore. That means the Red Sox have the chips to make this work.

It’s perhaps a bit less likely, but they could be scouting Whit Merrifield. The Kansas City second baseman isn’t even arbitration eligible yet, but he is 29 years old and will likely be declining by the time the Royals are good again. His value will never be higher than it is today, which means the Red Sox would have to part with one of their few highly regarded trade chips. That means Michael Chavis or Jay Groome. It might be a price not worth paying, but Merrifield gives the Red Sox a hedge against Pedroia’s knee not recovering enough to get back on the field next season, and great depth to pair with Brock Holt. Merrifield offers great speed on the base paths and flashed intriguing power in 2017. Even so, Brian Dozier appears to be the better option of the two, all things considered.

What will they come away with?

It’s possible they won’t trade for any of these names. Frank Wren being there means Dombrowski has his eye one someone playing in this series, but that’s far from a guarantee that a deal is imminent. And it’s probably far more likely than not that if a deal is coming, it’s for one of these names, and not a combination of them. But I’m going to put on my optimistic hat and hope that we’ll see an announcement that the Red Sox have traded for Brian Dozier, Ryan Pressly and Fernando Rodney. I can dream, right?

Next: The Red Sox division hopes could rest on Drew Pomeranz...

What do you think the Red Sox are looking at in Kansas City this weekend? Any other names worth considering? Let us know in the comments!

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