Red Sox Senior VP Frank Wren scouting for trade deadline help
By Damian Dydyn
The closers.
With reports that Jeurys Familia may be headed to Oakland, Dombrowski may be turning to other relievers. And the first name to come to mind is Fernando Rodney, the current closer for the Twins. Rodney pitched for the Tigers until 2009, so Dave Dombrowski is familiar with him. And he’s having a solid season. In fact, that’s about all you can say about him most years. He’s a solid reliever, but he’s never dominant. Generally speaking, his walk rate is the indicator of whether he’s having a good year or not. And this season it’s down to 3.12 per nine innings. The Red Sox could do far worse for a setup man. Rodney has a club option for 2019 with a small buyout.
The Royals also have a closer they’d likely be happy to move in Wily Peralta. Peralta isn’t as good as Rodney, but he likely wouldn’t cost as much in trade chips. While he has a massive issue with walking batters, posting a 7.71 BB/9, he has still managed a 3.86 ERA with a 3.58 FIP. The Royals closer is striking out more than a batter per inning, and has a .333 BABIP, so he’s not benefiting from absurd luck on balls in play. Even still, there are non-closer targets on these two rosters I’d rather see the Red Sox gamble on. Peralta also has a 2019 club option with a tiny buyout.
The non-closers.
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Zach Duke is on a one year contract and is having a very solid season. His 3.38 ERA bisects his 2.72 FIP and 3.76 xFIP nicely. He’s striking out a batter per inning and is walking almost 4% fewer batters than Matt Barnes. If nothing else he would be a nice addition to the existing mix of relievers vying for high leverage innings. Prior to his poor 2017, Duke had three straight strong seasons for results. He may be this year’s Addison Reed.
Speaking of Reed, he could be on the team’s radar as he did have a mostly successful run in Boston last year. But he has struggled mightily in 2018 posting a 4.83 ERA. His FIP and xFIP are in the same range, so it’s not just poor luck. But there is reason to hope he’ll improve. The K/9 is 8.12 and his BB/9 is 2.85. You’d expect better results and a .330 BABIP might indicate he’s due for positive regression. A 10 point drop in LOB% is probably attributable to that 66 point jump in BABIP. I wouldn’t want Reed to be the sole answer for the pen, but he could be a good buy low candidate for the second half.
Ryan Pressly is actually in his arb 2 year, meaning he’s cost controlled for another season. That said, he’s only cost controlled for one more season and the Twins may not expect to be a playoff contender for it. Pressly has a solid 3.63 ERA with a 2.95 FIP and a 2.72 xFIP suggesting he might be a bit better than that. And he’s striking out 13.50 per nine innings (that’s 34%, which is elite). Of all the options listed above, Pressly is my favorite. He helps beyond this year, and he has elite strikeout stuff, which is what you are looking for in close and late situations.