Red Sox outfielder Mookie Betts ranks No. 6 on FanGraphs Trade Value list
Boston Red Sox outfielder Mookie Betts was ranked only sixth by FanGraphs in their latest Trade Value column. Should he be higher on the list?
You would be hard-pressed to find any one major league player that Boston Red Sox fans would be willing to part with Mookie Betts for. Apparently, not everyone agrees.
FanGraphs released their annual Trade Value column this week, which surprisingly lists Betts outside the top-five. Boston’s star outfielder ranks No. 6, behind Carlos Correa, Mike Trout, Aaron Judge, Francisco Lindor, and Jose Ramirez.
Wait, so there’s a handful of players better than Betts? Well, not exactly. FanGraphs currently has Betts tied with Trout with 6.4 WAR this season, trailing only Ramirez (6.7 WAR). Mookie leads the majors with a 199 wRC+ and .466 wOBA. He also provides Gold Glove defense and elite base running. Betts is having an MVP-caliber season yet that’s not all that is factored into trade value.
The list FanGraphs compiled is based primarily on five-year WAR projections, salary and remaining years of team control. Contracts matter. Two players could be producing equally on the field yet if one costs half as much then he has more trade value.
Years of control matter. Manny Machado is tied for 8th in the majors with 4.0 WAR but doesn’t sniff the top-10 on this list. Why? He’s a free agent after this season. That’s why the Los Angeles Dodgers managed to acquire him for a package that didn’t include a top-50 prospect. Teams are starting to realize that if they want to cash in for a bounty on the trade market they can’t wait until their star becomes a three-month rental.
Now that we’ve established the ground rules, let’s see if FanGraphs has Betts ranked fairly.
Five-year projections
The ZiPS projections used to determine the WAR forecast has Betts pegged for 34.3 WAR over the next five years. That average of 6.8 WAR per year seems conservative but reasonable. He will blow by that figure this year but projections have to take into account the potential for a down season like the one Betts had last year when he produced 5.4 WAR.
Among players FanGraphs ranks in their top 10, only Trout (44.5) and Lindor (34.8) have a higher five-year WAR projection than Betts. Trout is the best player in baseball and would top the list if it were based on expected production alone. Lindor barely edges out Betts in this forecast, although it’s fair to question the projections.
Betts has been worth 18.5 WAR over the last three seasons, or 6.2 WAR per year. Lindor has been worth 15.5 WAR over the last three years for an average of 5.2 WAR. Betts has been worth almost one full win more than Lindor this season. While Lindor is a year younger, both players will be in their prime for the duration of this five-year projection. It’s hard to fathom how Lindor ended up ahead.
Trout is the only position player to produce more value than Betts over the last three years. Going based on average, Judge comes in second behind Trout with 8.2 WAR in last year’s rookie campaign. The small sample works in Judge’s favor. The long-term projections do not. His 28.2 five-year WAR projection is the lowest among those in the top-six on the Trade Value list, yet FanGraphs ranks him third overall.
The value of long-term control
Which brings us to the part about how contracts factor into these rankings.
Betts has two years of arbitration remaining, tied with Trout for the fewest years of control among those in the top-10 on this list. Betts fell just shy of setting a record for first-year arbitration eligible players with his $10.5 million salary for 2018. He’ll earn much more over the next two years and could enter unprecedented territory if he goes on to earn himself an MVP award.
Betts will get expensive in a hurry. After the 2020 season he’ll either cash in with a huge payday from the Red Sox or bolt to another team who will back up the Brinks truck for him. This uncertainty is what dampens his trade value.
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Compare that to Judge, who is making near the league minimum this year and won’t hit free agency until 2022. Betts is the better player yet those two extra years of control for Judge increases his value to the Yankees.
That explains why Lindor is second on the list. I mentioned the reasons to question why Lindor has a higher five-year projection. Even if you feel Betts will continue to be the better player, it’s still fairly close. Too close not to favor the extra year of control Lindor has.
The same goes for Correa. His 31.8 five-year WAR projects him for about half a win less than Betts per season, which he’ll easily make up with an extra year of control.
That being said, there’s not a chance that the Red Sox would consider trading Betts straight up for any of those three. Mookie may only have two years of control left but Boston isn’t going to let him walk away. The team with MLB’s highest payroll will shell out whatever it takes to keep a generational talent like Betts. However, when Betts earns his mega-contract it will immediately cause his trade value to plummet. Boston can afford that type of contract. Most other teams can’t, which has to be taken into account when determining trade value.
No. 1 Trade Value
Jose Ramirez earned the top spot on the Trade Value list. The Cleveland Indians third baseman has only been marginally more valuable than Betts this year. His 4.0 average WAR over the last three years is well behind Mookie’s level, as is his 32.5 five-year WAR projection. Betts has had the better career and has a brighter forecast.
But… take a look at that contract for Ramirez. Cleveland wisely locked him up after his breakout 2016 season. They now have Ramirez under team control for a mere $43 million through 2023, including team options in the last two years of his deal.
Betts might make that much money in his next two arbitration years, let alone what it would cost to keep him for five years. You can argue that Betts is the more productive player but it would be by a slim margin. There’s no case to be made that Betts will be a better value than the bargain contract Ramirez is locked in on.
In terms of trade value, Ramirez is the clear winner. Betts could conceivably spend the rest of his career in a Red Sox uniform, alleviating any concerns about years of control. However, he’ll never be the bargain Ramirez is now. Other teams that don’t have Boston’s financial resources won’t value Betts as much if they can’t afford to keep him beyond his arbitration years. He has more value to the Red Sox than he would to most other teams.
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Boston would trade Betts for Trout if they could since he’s the only player who represents a clear upgrade. They would have to consider trading him for Ramirez given that his contract is too good to pass up. The Red Sox should value Betts higher than anyone else on the list. The problem is that other teams wouldn’t. Not when factoring in the years of control. That’s why putting Betts sixth on the list is fair.