Boston Red Sox hypothetical fire sale: Five potential trade ideas
The Red Sox have money, but what would happen if conditions suddenly existed that forced a franchise dismantling? Just what type of return could be expected of young, talented, and controllable players?
Charlie Finley dismantled an Athletics team that won three straight World Series championships with his motivator being free agency and the impending doom it would present to Finley. The Red Sox purchased Joe Rudi and Rollie Fingers only to have the transaction vacated by Commissioner Bowie Kuhn.
Going back into A’s history a similar occurrence happened in the years after the Great Depression started when owner Connie Mack was financially strapped. The Red Sox and Tom Yawkey stepped in and Lefty Grove and Jimmie Foxx came to Boston. This was a repeat of what Mack Had done in 1915 with the emergence of Federal League competition.
Since the advent of free agency we have seen successful teams dismantled over pending salary issues – Miami seems to have a patent on the system. Others look towards deep pockets on the bookend coasts to sell off fat contracts or impending free agents for prospects of low mileage ( limited service time) players. Just what would the Red Sox get?
I am not advocating for the Red Sox to have a Charlie O. type fire sale, but the curiosity factor is certainly present. Who to ship out? Who to keep? What teams in the mix? Obviously, a Rafael Devers or Andrew Benintendi would be retained even by a desperate team based on service time, but others are vulnerable. Just what could a different set of circumstances produce in an early July housecleaning?
Consider the following like astrology – fun to read, but not to take seriously.
Xander Bogaerts to Brewers
The Brewers have a team that may win the National League Central. They also have former Red Sox Travis Shaw and can keep him. What they need is a shortstop who can hit. Tyler Saladino had the position until an ankle injury put him on the sideline, but Saladino is a career .236 hitter with 15 home runs in 902 PA’s.
The delegated starter is 23-year-old Orlando Arcia who is hovering around .200. Arcia is excellent in the defensive portion of his skill set with 10 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and a 15.4 UZR/150. Veteran Eric Songard occasional steps in, but his hitting makes Jackie Bradley look like Mike Trout.
What could the Brewers offer? Start with Arcia to replace Bogaerts and move on from there. The next and key addition would be right-hand prospect Freddy Peralta. Peralta will not impress with his fastball (92.2) and relies on it with limited use of a change and curve. Peralta has had a rather interesting start to his MLB career with some excellent beginning numbers. Peralta is currently ranked ninth on the Brewers prospect list.
Peralta makes up for being an undersized righty by generating enormous extension to plate, causing his low-90s fastball that touches 94 mph to play up consistently. The pitch is his primary source of whiffs, many of which he induces inside the strike zone, and was at the heart of his Minor League-best .178 batting average against among starters in 2017. – MLB Prospect Watch
The last piece would be more pitching with another top prospect Corbin Burns in the Brewers farm system menagerie and is ranked second in their portfolio. Neither Burns nor Peralta are ranked among the top 100 MLM prospects. A concern from a Red Sox vantage point.
Scouts rave about Burnes’ lightning-quick arm, as it produces a 92-95 mph fastball that has natural cutting action out of his hand. He pounds the strike zone with the pitch, using it to attack hitters on both sides of the plate, and maintains velocity deep into starts. – MLB Prospect Watch
Burns is a 23-year-old righty who – as with most young pitchers – a work in progress. Just how high is his ceiling? That as with Peralta is debatable, but the Brewers would be getting a player with well-established credentials as a hitter and controllable through 2020.
David Price to Angels
After watching the Red Sox dismantle the Angels pitching staff this season the need is clear – LAA needs functioning arms and that means Price. The big picture is the remaining $127 MM on Price’s contract for 2019-22. This drifts into the realm of a salary dump. But Price is proving he can still pitch and LAA has money.
Just what do the Angels have that may quench a baseball thirst? The Angels farm system is similar to that of the Red Sox – rather barren and that sets limits, but limits are already in place with Price’s contract.
The target I would have to start with is a 20-year old second baseman, Jahmai Jones. Jones is still in the low minors (A+) and is struggling to get to the .250 plateau. With Dustin Pedroia, questionable yearly Jones could be an addition if his 2020 ETA is realized. The right-hand hitting Jones has shown spurts of power 14 home runs in 2017.
His intangibles give Jones a very high floor. His tools and athleticism give him a very high ceiling. He’s poised to impact the upper levels of the Angels system and could be ready to join another toolsy homegrown player, Trout, in Los Angeles soon. – MLB Prospect Watch.
Jones’ athleticism is demonstrated by excellent defensive prowess and some very good speed with 27 steals last season. Jones has rough edges and may suddenly put it together or simply stall once he advances up the minor league ladder.
Chris Rodriguez is a 19-year-old right-hander who throws hard (mid-90s) and has not pitched this season. For his minor league career, Rodriguez has a 5.40 ERA in 68.1 innings. What Rodriguez offers is a “promise” and sometimes they get broken.
Rodriguez is a solid athlete who has done a very good job taking care of his body to help him maximize the considerable tools he has. He’s a strong breakout candidate, one who could start moving up pitching prospect lists soon. – MLB Prospect Watch
The last is a payroll offset and that means 30-year-old left-hand hitting Kole Calhoun. Calhoun is owed $10.5 MM for 2019 with a team option for $14 MM or a one million buyout for 2020. Calhoun won a Gold Glove (2015) for his outfield work, but his hitting has never quite reached the next level with a .254 career average. Calhoun does have decent power once hitting 26 home runs. A help balance the books moment.
Rick Porcello to Cubs
Everyone needs pitching and those that don’t soon will when an arm goes dead. The Cubs have had a taste of a World Series championship and I doubt management or fans wish to wait until the next century for a repeat. Porcello will have another year under contract, but the Cubs have money. What do I want?
A bat and that means Kyle Schwarber who may take his hitting to the next level. Schwarber has power and could reach 30+ home runs this season, but his average may need a serious jolt to reach .250. Schwarber – a 25-year-old lefty – reminds me of Matt Stairs, but with more long-range potential.
I would expect pitching in return and the Cubs for having six of their top ten prospects as hurlers. You can ask for Adbert Alzolay but expect to be rejected. After all, Porcello has a lot of innings on his arm and will be on the bump in homer-happy Wrigley Field. Lower the expectations, but not by much.
That not by much centers around a 19-year-old $1.5 MM prospect – righty Jose Albertos has not won a game in the minors. Again – this is the great hope of anticipation all targeted to projections.
Albertos possesses easily the best changeup in the system, earning plus-plus grades at times because he sells it so well and it seems to disappear at the plate. He sets it up with a 93-95 mph fastball that he can push to 97 and spot on either side of the plate when he’s going well. He’ll also flash a plus curveball at times, though it’s less consistent than his other two pitches because he uses it less often. – MLB Prospect Watch
With his youth and experience you expect Albertos fill out physically and lean both the mechanics and mental approach to pitching. The Cubs have been patient with Albertos and that could be rewarded in a few seasons.
Mookie Betts to Dodgers
Do you trade the face of the franchise? What can you get for value? Betts may be unsignable and may just be waiting for his eventual truckload of money. Bryce Harper was discussed as a $400 MM player – Mookie is better. Mookie may be unsignable and with this scenario, the Red Sox are looking to go under $100 MM payroll.
Just who could afford Betts? There are teams with prospects to offer, but payroll limitations exclude them. Somehow I do not picture Betts in right field at Tropicana Field or with the Royals at Kauffman Field.
The Dodgers have one player who could give the Red Sox an additional three-year window on free agency – Cody Bellinger. The left-hand power hitter is suffering from a “sophomore slump” that sometimes turns into a career signal for major disappointment. Bellinger is no five-tool player such as Betts but is a nice piece to start with.
The Dodgers have a rich farm system ranked as one of the best on MLB Pipeline. Looking over their system is a variety of options and I would expect no less than their number one prospect – Alex Verdugo a left-hand hitting outfielder.
One of the best pure hitting prospects in baseball, Verdugo recognizes pitches and controls the strike zone better than most players his age. He uses the whole field, repeatedly barreling balls with a quick left-handed stroke geared for line drives. – MLB Prospect Watch
Verdugo does not have the power of Betts, but his hitting is easily in the top ten in the Pacific Coast League (AAA), That, however, is the PCL and hitting league it certainly is, but Verdugo has a swing that may be a Benintendi swing clone.
Chris Sale to Yankees
When the Red Sox acquired Sale they gave up two of the top prospects in baseball with Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech. Any deal with the Yankees would require an equal amount or more since it is the Yankees and within the division. And for the Yankees, you would have a Luis Severino and Sale duo. A frightening combination. The Yankees also have the one item that Sale would find irresistible assuming he is a proponent of capitalism – money.
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The deal with the Yankees would be significantly different than a prospect collection. The Yankees have prospects, but also players who have a distance to go on service time and can certainly supply a need for a “rebuilding” Boston. The two would be outfielder Clint Frazier and catcher Gary Sanchez.
Sanchez has whacked seven home runs and hit .296 at Fenway Park. A prodigious right-handed power stroke who is now hitting under .200. As a hitter Sanchez is dangerous and as a catcher, the same may be applied to his defense. Sanchez has a quick arm, but his footwork and skills have raised some concerns.
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Frazier is locked out of the Yankee lineup. The 23-year-old right-handed hitting outfielder – like Sanchez – is under team control into the next decade with his earliest free agency 2024 and for Sanchez 2023. Frazier is a “potential” player and that goes with inherent risks. Sanchez also has concerns based on his batting average, but his power is undeniable.