Red Sox and Yankees square off for the division lead.
With the Red Sox just one game ahead of the stacked New York Yankees, the two teams face off in the Bronx for a three game set.
We are half way through the 2018 season and the division race in the A.L. East has been everything we could have hoped for. The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are separated by just one game. The Red Sox are tied with the Astros for the most wins in baseball. The Yankees are one back in the loss column and three wins back. To date, the teams have split six games against each other. The Yankees carry a better record against .500 or better teams. And they have the edge in strength of schedule .507 to .502. This head to head match-up is the third of six these two teams will have by the end of the season.
The series is the start of a nine game road trip for the Red Sox and a six game home-stand for the Yankees. The Sox will face the Washington Nationals and the Kansas City Royals next. The Yanks will host the Atlanta Braves. They then get on the road to take on the Toronto Blue Jays. Barring a sweep, the teams should part ways within two games of each other. So this is far from a critical series in determining the outcome of the division. But it’s always exciting when the long standing rivals get to go at it when both are playing so well.
Regardless of how this series plays out, this weekend should be an incredibly entertaining one. It’s rare for them to meet this late in the season while both are among the very top echelon of playoff contenders. Whatever happens, fans should get their money’s worth!
The match-ups.
Eduardo Rodriguez (3.86 ERA, 9-2) vs C.C. Sabathia (3.69 ERA, 4-3)
This one looks like an advantage for the Red Sox. While Sabathia has the better ERA, Rodriguez has significant advantages when we look beneath the hood. With a 3.54 FIP and a 3.76 versus 4.18 and 4.36 for Sabathia, we can trust Eduardo’s ERA to be more accurate. He also enjoys a nearly 3 K/9 advantage over his Yankees counterpart. Sabathia has looked better in his last five starts. But only because Eduardo had a rough go of it his last time out. Prior to his June 23 start, Rodriguez had gone at least 5.2 IP while giving up 2 or fewer runs in six straight games.
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Chris Sale (2.56 ERA, 7-4) vs Sonny Gray (4.93, 5-5)
This has all the makings of the classic “reverse jinx.” Sale has been better than Gray in every way this season. He is well on his way to another top 3 finish in the Cy Young voting. Gray has been a bit of a disappointment since being traded from the Oakland Athletics. Aside from a brief blip between May 27 and June 1, Sale has dominated all season. Meanwhile, Gray has given up 4 or 5 runs in four of his last eight starts. The problem for Chris Sale is run support. His 4.18 RS per game ranks the 39th lowest in MLB. While not quite as bad as he’s suffered in seasons past, the team does struggle to score when he’s on the mound.
David Price (3.66, 9-5) vs Luis Severino (2.10, 12-2)
This match-up obviously favors the Yankees. Severino is making a strong case for his first Cy Young award. And he is well on his way to cementing his status as one of baseball’s elite aces. David Price has righted the ship finally. But he has settled in as very good, but not the great pitcher he once was. This could end up being a pitcher’s duel, but the Yankees do have some excellent right handed power bats which could give Price fits.
The offenses.
Coming into the season it would have seemed a safe bet to take the Yankees for scoring more runs. That’s not how the season has played out, however. The Red Sox have the highest R/G in the majors at 5.20. Houston is second at 5.14 and the Yankees come in at third with 5.10. For raw runs scored, it’s Houston with 427. Then Boston at 426 and the Yankees at 398. The Red Sox are tied for the top batting average at .266 while the Yankees sit at eleventh with a .249. For OBP, the Sox are 4th and the Yanks 6th. For SLG it’s Boston at the top of the league (.459) and New York in second (.455).
The biggest surprise has been the home run power on display in Boston. Last season the Red Sox were one of the worst teams in MLB for both SLG and home runs hit. This year they trail only the Yankees in going bridge. The Sox have 118 HR, a 233 home run pace for the year. That’s a remarkable 72.1% increase over last season. The Yankees sit at the top of the hill with 127. Though with the addition of Giancarlo Stanton in the offseason, that isn’t surprising.
Key hitters for each team.
The Yankees lineup is longer than that of their rivals. With seven players having at 30 or more games played and at least a 115 OPS+ it’s hard for a pitcher to find a spot to take a breath when facing them. The Red Sox sport six players at 112 or higher and at least 30 games played. But where they pull ahead is at the top. Five of those batters have a 125 or higher, three are at 139 or higher, and their best hitters (Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez) are at 190 and 173 respectively. The top Yankees hitter is Aaron Judge at 155. After that it’s Gleyber Torres at 134.
If the Red Sox are to win this series, they will need Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez to continue their excellence, and for Andrew Benintendi to continue his hot streak. New addition Steve Pearce may be a key figure in game one given his success against left handed pitchers, and C.C. Sabathia in particular. He has an .848 OPS against the veteran southpaw.
The prediction.
This is always a dicey proposition. Baseball games are really hard to predict given the number of factors that go into one team prevailing over the other. That said, this one seems a little more straight forward than most. With the addition of Steve Pearce, the Red Sox will be able to field a solid lineup against Sabathia and take advantage of his up and down season. And Sabathia is due for a rough start. Expect the Red Sox to take this one in a high scoring affair as the Yankees will do some damage against Boston’s own southpaw.
In game two, I’ll take Chris Sale over Sonny Gray, reverse jinx be dammed. Sale may give up three or four runs, but the Red Sox are scoring at least 4 a game for him. And against Gray, expect the team’s left handed hitters to shine. Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers both continue to hit well, J.D. Martinez keeps crushing the ball and Mookie Betts keeps building that Yankee-killer rep. Betts has a 1.208 OPS against the Yankees this season and an 1.167 in Yankee Stadium. The Sox win this one big.
And here is where the Yankees minimize the damage. David Price hasn’t exactly dominated in big games since coming to Boston. The Yankees present an exceptional challenge for him. He’ll actually take the mound this time, but won’t last long as the Yankees will take him deep several times in the early innings. The Red Sox will get to Severino, but only a little. The Yankees will take a significant but not huge lead into a battle of the bullpens. And the Red Sox pen will not keep the game close. That means the Red Sox will walk way with a two game lead in the division before heading to Washington D.C. for their showdown with the Nationals.
Next: The Red Sox can beat the Yankees for the division.
Got a prediction for how this series will go? How about the division race? Let us know what you are expecting in the comments!