Red Sox prospect Bobby Dalbec has a 3-true-outcomes approach that leaves many doubting he can succeed at the major league level. Here’s why we’re hopeful.
Selected in the 4th round of the 2016 MLB draft, Boston Red Sox third baseman Bobby Dalbec has a peculiar approach at the plate. It’s one that is very difficult to make work over the long haul, and even when it works it’s not pretty. And let’s be frank about this. If you are on the extreme end of the scale in high-A, what chance do you have of making it work against more advanced pitchers? I mean, he had a 37.4% strikeout rate against A-ball pitchers last year. Surely the swing and miss is a fatal flaw.
His minor league career has been a roller coaster ride to say the least. After being drafted hit hit like Babe Ruth in 34 games at low-A. No, seriously. He put up a 224 wRC+ with 7 HR. Then he missed a significant chunk of 2017 with a broken hamate. And when he was on the field, he was swinging and missing at an epic rate. As evidenced by the strikeout rate referenced in the paragraph above. Well, we’re not ready to write Dalbec off just yet. Here’s why.
He’s showing improvements.
His season line this year is .225/.351/.479 with 14 HR in 69 games. Compared to the .246/.345/.437 with 13 HR in 78 games last year, it represents a step forward. We can see this in his wRC+ which has improved from 128 to 132. Not a huge jump, but even within the season there has been growth.
More from Red Sox Prospects
- Red Sox risk repeating rookie mistake with Eric Hosmer release
- Red Sox invited group of players you’ve probably never heard of to Spring Training
- Jeter Downs’ official departure will continue to haunt Red Sox
- 3 players the Red Sox could’ve DFA’ed instead of Jeter Downs and Eric Hosmer
- Red Sox cut bait with key Mookie Betts trade piece in latest roster move
In his first 44 games Dalbec hit .204/.335/.454 with 9 HR and a 33.5% strikeout rate. In the 25 games since? .262/.379/.524 with 5 HR and a 26.2% strikeout rate. He’s maintained the power while lowering his strikeout rate. This helped improve his triple slash stats across the line. And more importantly, it shows that he is working to address the swing and miss issues he has had since the start of last year. Now, don’t get me wrong, he will always have a significant amount of swing and miss in his game. The key is keeping it within a livable range.
Is it a survivable rate?
His rate over the last 25 games certainly is. There are 23 players with a higher strikeout rate at the major league level right now, and among them are big time power bats like Trevor Story, Cody Bellinger, Kyle Schwarber, Khris Davis, Paul Goldschmidt and Giancarlo Stanton. His raw power is on par with every one of those hitters, even if the in game power is still a question.
That said, the 33.5% rate from his first 44 games of the season is more questionable. In fact, only hour hitters in the majors have a higher rate right now, and one of them is Chris Davis. The other three offer hope, however: Joey Gallo, Matt Davidson, and Yoan Moncada. Bobby Dalbec is still a long way from a call up, but he has intriguing tools. And at least to this point he has made it work as a minor leaguer. We probably wouldn’t bet the house on him being a productive major leaguer, but the chances that he succeeds aren’t insubstantial.
Next: The framework for a Xander Bogaerts extension
And if he really has figured out how to keep his strikeout rate in the mid twenties instead of around 30%, look out. He could go from fringe prospect to middle of the order impact bat in a hurry. What are your thoughts on three true outcomes hitters? Do you think Bobby Dalbec can make this approach work? Let us know in the comments!