Red Sox: Framework of an extension for shortstop Xander Bogaerts

4 of 4

BOSTON, MA – OCTOBER 09: Xander Bogaerts #2 of the Boston Red Sox celebrates with teammates in the dugout after hitting a solo home run in the first inning against the Houston Astros during game four of the American League Division Series at Fenway Park on October 9, 2017 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /

How about another angle?

So Let’s look for comparisons in a different manner. Xander is going to be looking for free agent type dollars to not test the market so we might as well look at free agents. We will consider free agent contracts signed after 2007 from third basemen, second basemen, and shortstops under the age of 28 with at least 10 fWAR in the three years leading up to their pacts.

…

Above is the full list of players. Huh, did I forget to include the list? Nope. Not a single free agent contract matches those criteria. Players have historically not hit the market this young with this much success under their belt.

Because there has been a wave in baseball recently of young studs taking the league by storm at a younger age let’s go back to contract extensions from the past few years but broaden our horizons a little bit. We can all agree Xander will eclipse the 100 million dollar mark barring injury or disaster so let’s start with players who signed extensions since the beginning of 2013 under the age of 28 for a total value of $100 million or more.

Date	Player	Team	Position	Years	Total Dollars (millions)	Adjusted Dollars	Service (years)	Agency	3-year fWAR
03/16/2018	Jose Altuve	HOU	2B	5	$151M	151	6.072	Boras Corporation	18.7
11/17/2014	Giancarlo Stanton	MIA	RF	13	$325M	343.8	4.118	Wasserman	14.8
03/28/2014	Mike Trout	LAA	CF	6	$144.5M	152.9	2.07	Landis Baseball Group	20.9
02/04/2014	Freddie Freeman	ATL	1B	8	$135M	142.8	3.033	Excel Sports Management	7.2
04/04/2013	Elvis Andrus	TEX	SS	8	$120M	128.8	4	Boras Corporation	9.7
03/29/2013	Buster Posey	SFG	C	8	$159M	170.7	2.161	CAA Sports	13.2

Considering service time and age, the best bet is that Xander’s contract will fall somewhere between the rate of Elvis Andrus’s contract and Jose Altuve’s pact. He isn’t as good as Altuve, but Altuve had several years left of control and he’s a little better than Andrus was in his three-year window prior to his deal.

What’s the takeaway?

If I had to take a stab at it I’d say that Xander’s contract will probably fall between 6-9 years with around $20-23 million annually depending on how he performs for the rest of this season. That’s a wide range by itself and perhaps Bogaerts isn’t even interested in an extension.

But if a deal will go down it will not be at a large discount and we should expect it to fall within that framework. Come on Dombrowski, let’s get it done.

Next: Red Sox should target a bench bat at the deadline

Have any thoughts on the likelihood of a Xander Bogaerts extension? How about what it will cost? Let us know in the comments!

Home/Red Sox News