Red Sox: Framework of an extension for shortstop Xander Bogaerts
Xander Bogaerts has been a key cog on the Red Sox for several years. Now that he’s approaching the market it’s time to ask what it’d take to keep him.
Xander Bogaerts has had a peculiar career to date. He entered the big leagues in 2013 as perhaps baseball’s best offensive prospect. At just 20 years old, Xander pushed his way into Boston’s lineup by slashing .297/.388/.477 with 15 homers in 116 games. His rare combination of hit tool and power conjured up memories of Nomar from starry-eyed fans. His major league trajectory did not go quite as planned, however.
In his first full season, Xander was picked apart by pitchers when they discovered a huge hole in his swing on the low-outside corner. He only managed a replacement level performance in 2014 and fans began to wonder if he would adjust or flame out like countless talented prospects before him.
In 2015 Xander flipped the narrative. He corrected the hole in his swing on the outer half by hitting the ball the other way 32.0% of the time; a huge jump from just 19.3% the year before. In turn, Xander’s batting average jumped from .240 in 2014 to .320 in 2015, but he also lost his power. He would hit only 7 homers and maintain an ISO of just .101 that season. He accrued a stellar fWAR of 4.6 for his overall contributions, but he felt like a very different player than the one we expected.
Consistency would not be his forte.
Two more seasons passed and Bogaerts has hardly been less enigmatic. He would hit like Troy Tulowitzki for awhile and then his bat would disappear for months. But despite never reaching Tulo-like heights over a full season, it would be foolish to say Xander has been a bust.
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Our early expectations and frustrations with Xander caused many of us to overlook how valuable he has been. Xander’s 12.7 fWAR between 2015 and 2017 ranks fourth among all shortstops in baseball during that stretch. Compared to other shortstops he has been well above average at the plate and solidly middle of the pack in the field, ranking 6th in wRC+ and 12th in UZR/150 over the same stretch. And this year he has gotten better.
To date, Bogaerts has posted a career-best slash line of .278/.336/.511 with a .361 wOBA. His .233 ISO is miles ahead of his previous work and his 12 homers in just 57 games already eclipses his total from last season. And he’s only 25-years-old. After the 2019 season, Xander is set to hit free agency. He has been a key contributor for the Red Sox and there is no doubt that the Red Sox would love to keep him around. The question is “what would it take?”
His agent complicates things.
He is a Scott Boras client which traditionally means that he is looking for the largest payout possible. He would also have five years of service time under his belt if negotiations were to take place this offseason. With that in mind let’s examine all short-stops who received contract extensions in the past ten years who had at least five seasons of service time accumulated.
| Date | Player | Team | Position | Years | Total Dollars (millions) | Adjusted Dollars | Service (years) | Agency |
| 10/09/2014 | J.J. Hardy | BAL | SS | 3 | $40M | 42.3 | 9.164 | Landis Baseball Group |
| 11/30/2012 | Alexi Casilla | BAL | SS | 1 | $1.9M | 2.1 | 5.038 | Proformance |
| 04/18/2012 | Erick Aybar | LAA | SS | 4 | $35M | 38.2 | 5.086 | ISE Baseball |
| 07/16/2011 | J.J. Hardy | BAL | SS | 3 | $22.5M | 25.3 | 6.099 | Landis Baseball Group |
| 01/10/2011 | Jason Bartlett | SDG | SS | 2 | $11M | 12.4 | 5.086 | Landis Baseball Group |
| 01/25/2010 | Maicer Izturis | LAA | 2B / SS | 3 | $10M | 11.4 | 5.038 | Legacy Agency |
| 12/16/2009 | Ramon Santiago | DET | SS | 2 | $2.5M | 2.9 | 5.095 | ACES |
| 11/13/2009 | Jack Wilson | SEA | SS | 2 | $10M | 11.7 | 8.147 | Page Odle |
| 07/22/2008 | Cristian Guzman | WAS | SS | 2 | $16M | 18.8 | 9.119 | Stanley King |
Contract data is via MLB Trade Rumors and all adjusted salaries were calculated using this calculator. The first thing that jumps out is that these players are all much worse than Xander Bogaerts. J.J. Hardy’s 8.5 fWAR in the three years prior to his extension is the highest mark of the group and still well short of the 12.7 fWAR Bogaerts achieved between 2015 and 2017. That’s without even accounting for the fact that Hardy was 31-years-old; a decent bit older than the 25-year-old Bogaerts.
How about another angle?
So Let’s look for comparisons in a different manner. Xander is going to be looking for free agent type dollars to not test the market so we might as well look at free agents. We will consider free agent contracts signed after 2007 from third basemen, second basemen, and shortstops under the age of 28 with at least 10 fWAR in the three years leading up to their pacts.
…
Above is the full list of players. Huh, did I forget to include the list? Nope. Not a single free agent contract matches those criteria. Players have historically not hit the market this young with this much success under their belt.
Because there has been a wave in baseball recently of young studs taking the league by storm at a younger age let’s go back to contract extensions from the past few years but broaden our horizons a little bit. We can all agree Xander will eclipse the 100 million dollar mark barring injury or disaster so let’s start with players who signed extensions since the beginning of 2013 under the age of 28 for a total value of $100 million or more.
| Date | Player | Team | Position | Years | Total Dollars (millions) | Adjusted Dollars | Service (years) | Agency | 3-year fWAR |
| 03/16/2018 | Jose Altuve | HOU | 2B | 5 | $151M | 151 | 6.072 | Boras Corporation | 18.7 |
| 11/17/2014 | Giancarlo Stanton | MIA | RF | 13 | $325M | 343.8 | 4.118 | Wasserman | 14.8 |
| 03/28/2014 | Mike Trout | LAA | CF | 6 | $144.5M | 152.9 | 2.07 | Landis Baseball Group | 20.9 |
| 02/04/2014 | Freddie Freeman | ATL | 1B | 8 | $135M | 142.8 | 3.033 | Excel Sports Management | 7.2 |
| 04/04/2013 | Elvis Andrus | TEX | SS | 8 | $120M | 128.8 | 4 | Boras Corporation | 9.7 |
| 03/29/2013 | Buster Posey | SFG | C | 8 | $159M | 170.7 | 2.161 | CAA Sports | 13.2 |
Considering service time and age, the best bet is that Xander’s contract will fall somewhere between the rate of Elvis Andrus’s contract and Jose Altuve’s pact. He isn’t as good as Altuve, but Altuve had several years left of control and he’s a little better than Andrus was in his three-year window prior to his deal.
What’s the takeaway?
If I had to take a stab at it I’d say that Xander’s contract will probably fall between 6-9 years with around $20-23 million annually depending on how he performs for the rest of this season. That’s a wide range by itself and perhaps Bogaerts isn’t even interested in an extension.
But if a deal will go down it will not be at a large discount and we should expect it to fall within that framework. Come on Dombrowski, let’s get it done.
Next: Red Sox should target a bench bat at the deadline
Have any thoughts on the likelihood of a Xander Bogaerts extension? How about what it will cost? Let us know in the comments!