How about another angle?
So Let’s look for comparisons in a different manner. Xander is going to be looking for free agent type dollars to not test the market so we might as well look at free agents. We will consider free agent contracts signed after 2007 from third basemen, second basemen, and shortstops under the age of 28 with at least 10 fWAR in the three years leading up to their pacts.
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Above is the full list of players. Huh, did I forget to include the list? Nope. Not a single free agent contract matches those criteria. Players have historically not hit the market this young with this much success under their belt.
Because there has been a wave in baseball recently of young studs taking the league by storm at a younger age let’s go back to contract extensions from the past few years but broaden our horizons a little bit. We can all agree Xander will eclipse the 100 million dollar mark barring injury or disaster so let’s start with players who signed extensions since the beginning of 2013 under the age of 28 for a total value of $100 million or more.
| Date | Player | Team | Position | Years | Total Dollars (millions) | Adjusted Dollars | Service (years) | Agency | 3-year fWAR |
| 03/16/2018 | Jose Altuve | HOU | 2B | 5 | $151M | 151 | 6.072 | Boras Corporation | 18.7 |
| 11/17/2014 | Giancarlo Stanton | MIA | RF | 13 | $325M | 343.8 | 4.118 | Wasserman | 14.8 |
| 03/28/2014 | Mike Trout | LAA | CF | 6 | $144.5M | 152.9 | 2.07 | Landis Baseball Group | 20.9 |
| 02/04/2014 | Freddie Freeman | ATL | 1B | 8 | $135M | 142.8 | 3.033 | Excel Sports Management | 7.2 |
| 04/04/2013 | Elvis Andrus | TEX | SS | 8 | $120M | 128.8 | 4 | Boras Corporation | 9.7 |
| 03/29/2013 | Buster Posey | SFG | C | 8 | $159M | 170.7 | 2.161 | CAA Sports | 13.2 |
Considering service time and age, the best bet is that Xander’s contract will fall somewhere between the rate of Elvis Andrus’s contract and Jose Altuve’s pact. He isn’t as good as Altuve, but Altuve had several years left of control and he’s a little better than Andrus was in his three-year window prior to his deal.
What’s the takeaway?
If I had to take a stab at it I’d say that Xander’s contract will probably fall between 6-9 years with around $20-23 million annually depending on how he performs for the rest of this season. That’s a wide range by itself and perhaps Bogaerts isn’t even interested in an extension.
But if a deal will go down it will not be at a large discount and we should expect it to fall within that framework. Come on Dombrowski, let’s get it done.
Next: Red Sox should target a bench bat at the deadline
Have any thoughts on the likelihood of a Xander Bogaerts extension? How about what it will cost? Let us know in the comments!