Red Sox Trade Deadline: Nine targets you might hear in rumors
The 2018 MLB trade deadline isn’t far off. With questions in the pen and at second, what will the Boston Red Sox do to plug the holes in their roster?
With the trade deadline a little more than a month away and warts starting to show for the Boston Red Sox, it’s time to start speculating. We’ve already touched on one of the obvious ones in Brad Hand. So we will skip him below, but there are plenty of other possibilities. The team has had disappointing production out of the bullpen, second base and third. Mitch Moreland has cooled at first. Even the rotation has some questions. Despite that, the team has third best record in baseball and may decide this is a GFIN year.
The mitigating factors that might convince Dave Dombrowski to stand pat mostly revolve around the latest CBA and its competitive balance measures. Namely, the luxury tax threshold. The team is well past the $197M soft cap. At $40M over that, or $237M, they see their tax go up to 42.5% and their top draft pick next year drop 10 slots. That’s a very harsh penalty. But given the window in front of them, it might be one worth paying.
Currently, Cot’s Baseball Contracts has the Red Sox at $235,325,600.00 for the year. That means they can add up to just under $1.75M more in salary before triggering the harshest tier of penalties.
Is it worth going over?
Typically I’d say no. But this isn’t a typical season for the Red Sox. A lot of work went into putting the current roster on the field. Years of developing its core in Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Andrew Benintendi and Eduardo Rodriguez. The expending of long-term resources to bring in Chris Sale and Craig Kimbrel. Tons of cash going out to bring back David Price. This team is built to win, and it’s built to win now. In fact, Dombrowski used almost all of the franchise’s prospect capital to get them to where they are.
Only third baseman Rafael Devers was spared the trade block. Michael Chavis emerged last season but popped positive for steroids before any serious trade discussions could kick off this season. Jay Groome still has a massive ceiling but has lost most of his first two seasons to injury. They’re mostly tapped out for minor league resources, though they did just have a strong draft. Because of that, dropping their top pick in 2019 might not be as unpalatable as it would have seemed a month ago. So let’s go with yes, it is worth it, and proceed without financial constraints.
What are the areas of need?
We got pretty close to including third base to this list, given Devers’ struggles to start the year. Thankfully he’s heating up, so we can focus elsewhere. The most obvious area, of course, is the bullpen. After Kimbrel, there are a lot of question marks. While that’s true of a lot of bullpens, playoff caliber pens tend to have more than one sure thing to go to at the end of a game. Matt Barnes is a very nice arm to have in middle relief, but he’s not one you want in lots of high leverage situations. Joe Kelly might be that guy, but as Tuesday’s appearance reminded us (a double, a triple and a walk with no outs recorded), he can meltdown at a moment’s notice.
Then there’s second base. We all hope Dustin Pedroia is going to recover fully, get back on the field, and look like the Pedey of old. But the fact is, he’s getting old. His return to the field at full strength is no given and if he doesn’t start making progress soon, the team may have no choice but to start looking to plug that hole. Eduardo Nunez isn’t the answer. Brock Holt is at his best when bouncing around the field. They may need a replacement, and may not have enough time to wait and see for sure. That likely means Swihart’s roster spot finally gets upgraded, or maybe the DL Nunez for the knee that might still be bothering him. Either way, the clock is ticking.
The Relievers
Mark Melancon, RP – San Francisco Giants
The San Francisco Giants may not be willing to sell on Mark Melancon. They’re a game below .500 but just four back in their division. That said, they’re a game below .500, so they should at least consider heading in the seller direction. Assuming they do, the Red Sox could seek a reunion with Melancon who spent the 2012 season in Boston. His time in Boston didn’t go well, but since leaving in a trade that brought back Brock Holt, he has been nothing short of excellent.
In the four years that followed his departure from the Red Sox, Melancon posted ERAs between 1.39 and 2.23. His ERA last season was 4.50 in an injury-plagued campaign. He started this season on the DL, but rides a 2.70 ERA toward the end of the June, looking like his usual self. Melancon would slide in behind Craig Kimbrel as the team’s best set up option if he were to be acquired. The price would likely include Michael Chavis or Jay Groome since Melancon has control through the 2020 season. He would also give the Red Sox an internal option for replacing Kimbrel, should he leave in free agency.
Joakim Soria, RP – Chicago White Sox
Over the course of his career, Joakim Soria has been a solid setup man, and at times, a closer. His career 2.86 ERA is anchored mostly by his early seasons with the Royals. From 2007 through 2010 he was one of the most dominant arms in the game. What is he today? Over the last four and a half seasons he has a 3.34 ERA and tends to strike out a little more than a batter per inning. His walk rate has fluctuated but sits at a pretty 1.67 on the year thus far.
As a setup man, he mixes well with Joe Kelly and would push Matt Barnes back fully into middle relief. He’s of melting down from time to time, but he hasn’t allowed an earned run since May 18. The White Sox clearly aren’t expecting to compete this season, and would certainly listen to offers. Soria is under control through the end of the year with a mutual option for 2019.
Blake Treinen, RP – Oakland Athletics
This might be out of the Red Sox price range, though you never know with Billy Beane. He did trade Josh Donaldson’s arbitration years for Kendall Graveman and Brett Lawrie. That said, Blake Treinen is only in his first arbitration-eligible season and is likely not going to come cheap. The Athletics have no real need to trade him, so a bit of an overpay might be necessary. And that leads to the question: Is Blake Treinen worth overpaying for? He has been outstanding so far this season with a 1.03 ERA and a 30.7% strikeout rate. But he’s just one season removed from a 3.93 ERA.
Treinen, like Melancon, has added value to the Red Sox because of those years of control. Having an internal option for replacing current closer Craig Kimbrel would take a lot of the stress out of the coming winter. At 29, there is some risk that his step forward this season is a bit of a mirage. But even if he reverts back to his 2017 form, he adds another solid arm to the late-inning mix.
Jeurys Familia, RP – New York Mets
For the most part, Jeurys Familia has been one of the most consistently dominant closers in baseball since cracking the big league roster permanently in 2014. Of course, 2017 is the lone exception, which raises some flags. He required surgery last May to remove a blood clot in his throwing shoulder. By all accounts that surgery was a success. And while he did spend some time on the DL earlier this month for the same shoulder, the Mets insist it is unrelated. He was activated earlier in the week.
Familia would instantly be the second best pitcher in the Red Sox bullpen. He would be the go-to arm in the 8th inning, pushing both Kelly and Barnes back into lower leverage index innings. He is a free agent at the end of the year, so the cost may not be too bad. Think in the range of what the Red Sox paid for Addison Reed last year. A prospect like Josh Ockimey and a lotto ticket may well be enough. After all, Reed fetched just three relief pitching prospects from outside the Red Sox top 10 last summer.
Honorable Mention: Zach Britton, RP – Baltimore Orioles
Zach Britton missed most of the season with a torn Achilles tendon but he’s finally back on the mound for the Orioles. Like Familia, he is on the verge of free agency, and shouldn’t cost too much. His record is well known. When he’s healthy, he’s one of the best in baseball. But he pitches for a division rival, and that may mean the Orioles only willing to entertain offers from Boston so far as they help drive up the price for another team. This would be a great get, but likely isn’t something that has even a puncher’s chance of coming to fruition.
The Second basemen
Scooter Gennett, 2B – Cincinnati Reds
I wrote about Scooter Gennett a bit here. He’s having a career year and is in his second arbitration year. He won’t come cheap, which may preclude him from Dombrowski’s list of targets given the possibility of Pedroia getting back on the field. But his 145 wRC+ and 13 HR would look mighty fine in the Red Sox lineup. He’s 28 years old and isn’t the kind of player you can stash on your bench if Pedroia does come back. However, they could juggle playing time around a bit.
Whether that be letting Pedroia DH while Jackie Bradley, Jr. sits, or giving Devers a breather at third here and there, Gennett could extend the bench significantly and still see regular playing time. His glove would be a significant step back from Pedroia’s, but the bat is far more than the former MVP can offer at the plate these days. It’s not a perfect match, and it’s unclear whether the Red Sox can offer an enticing enough package. But a year and a half of Scooter Gennett for a Michael Chavis led package would likely be worth it. For the Red Sox, at least.
Jed Lowrie, 2B – Oakland Athletics
If the Red Sox do trade for Blake Treinen, chances are they won’t have the chips left to also land Jed Lowrie. If they land one of the less expensive relief pitching options, there may be rumors about a Lowrie reunion with Beantown. Lowrie started his career with the Red Sox but struggled to find consistent playing time at the major league level. He was sent to the Houston Astros as part of the cost in acquiring Mark Melancon. Gives this list a nice bit of balance, no?
Lowrie got off to an incredibly hot start this season, posting a 171 wRC+ in April. He was perfectly league average in May and has been a bit below that so far in June. That said, he’s a solid high floor hitter who would be a massive upgrade over Nunez if Pedroia can’t get back on the field. He’s not likely to be too much better than Pedey with the stick if Pedroia does come back, but with 497 career games played at short, and 119 at third, Lowrie would likely be an upgrade all around on what Nunez offers the club. Especially if Nunez is still being bothered by his knee and could use some time on the DL himself.
Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B – New York Mets
Unlike with Lowrie, this could actually work as a combo deal. Familia shouldn’t be too expensive, so the idea of adding Asdrubal Cabrera in the last year of his deal makes some sense. While not knocking the cover off the ball, his 118 wRC+ and 12 HR would be a significant improvement over what the Red Sox have put on the field so far this season. He is a lifetime above average hitter and has had two and a half very productive seasons with the Mets so far.
Like Lowrie, Cabrera could slide into the Nunez role should Pedroia get back to being healthy. He has 1,038 games played at short, and even a few dozen at third. Since the cost shouldn’t be too high, taking the chance that you end up with more infielders than you need makes sense here. A package deal for both Familia and Cabrera could cure both the ails the roster currently has. It even offers a potential path around Jackie Bradley Jr. if he doesn’t come around in that Pedroia can DH and move J.D. Martinez to the outfield as a regular. With Eduardo Nunez capable of playing the outfield a bit, JBJ as a 4th outfielder gives the team plenty of flexibility.
Brian Dozier, 2B – Minnesota Twins
This one depends on a few things happening. The most important of which is that the Twins need to decide they’re packing it in for the year. Brian Dozier is an impending free agent who is very likely to test the market. That means there’s a pretty good chance the Twins will only get a compensation pick for him after he walks for a big contract elsewhere. If they decide they aren’t likely to make the playoffs this season, and with Miguel Sano in high-A and Byron Buxton hurt they might, then trading Dozier might be the right call. He’s likely to bring back something more valuable than a comp round pick, at any rate.
Dozier is off to a rough start with a 90 wRC+ and just 10 HR so far. That said, he’s a big second-half hitter. Last season he went from a 95 wRC+ in the first half to a 158 in the second. His home runs were split 13 and 21. For his career, the splits are 102 in the first half and 118 in the second. So what we’re saying here is that this is a good time to buy on Dozier. He’s not a great defender, but he’s not bad either. And he lacks the flexibility of a Lowrie or Cabrera. But that bat. Just picture that bat in the lineup. Yeah, we’ll go get your napkin for that drool.
Next: Red Sox: Dustin Pedroia still dealing with knee pain
Who do you think the Red Sox should target at the trade deadline? Let us know in the comments! And keep checking back for more trade deadline news and rumors.