Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia still dealing with knee pain

Dustin Pedroia isn’t making much progress on the DL. With lingering knee swelling and soreness, do the Red Sox need to start looking elsewhere?

Knee surgery is a tricky thing. Especially when it’s a major surgery and not just a scope to clean out some loose cartilage. That’s why Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia’s off season procedure was such a huge concern for fans and the organization alike. The cartilage restoration procedure was meant to give him a more permanent fix of his aging knee. That said, it’s still an aging knee. And as his latest trip to the DL suggests, it’s still hurting.

Before we look at what another extended rehab would mean for the Red Sox, let’s take a closer look at the surgery he underwent. Dr. Christopher Geary of Tufts Medical described the cartilage restoration procedure here. The takeaway?

“While it has not been announced exactly what kind of surgery Pedroia underwent – “cartilage restoration” is a broader category of surgeries which includes multiple different potential techniques- he most likely had a microfracture to address his cartilage injury. In this procedure, multiple holes are poked in the exposed bone of the knee joint in an effort to stimulate new cartilage growth and thereby remove the source of pain.”

Sounds pleasant, right? It’s certainly a tough rehab to push through. But Dustin Pedroia is no stranger to working through pain. If there’s a member of the 25-man roster capable of doing it, it’s him. He is known to play through discomfort, sometimes to his detriment. Keeping him off the field can be a full time job for a manger all on its own.

How well does this work?

The success rate of the surgery leaves plenty of reason for optimism. Even within MLB there are some examples of players returning to form. While the idea of regrowing cartridge sounds agonizingly slow and difficult, it is successful in getting athletes back on the field pain free far more often than not.

Also from Dr. Geary’s blog post:

More from Red Sox News

• Red Sox invited group of players you’ve probably never heard of to Spring Training
• Jeter Downs’ official departure will continue to haunt Red Sox
• Aaron Judge’s Yankees return a brutal reminder of what could have been for Red Sox
• Red Sox should capitalize on Yankees’ latest roster move
• Red Sox ownership’s latest reported venture could be what’s affected team spending

“This is a well-established procedure with a proven track record for returning players to action – depending on the study you read, between 75-90% of patients have good results with this surgery. There are several examples of players in MLB who have had the procedure and returned to play – in the last few years, examples include Carlos Beltran (2010), Victor Martinez (2012), and Brad Ziegler (2014).”

There’s still a significant risk of it not panning out, of course. And that’s why the return to the DL has so many people feeling apprehensive. That said, the timeline for his return was about seven months. He underwent the procedure in late October, so that meant getting back on the field some time in May. Dustin Pedroia made his 2018 season debut on May 26. He played in just three games before hitting the shelf again. But it may be that he came back too quickly. One of the things Dr. Geary mentions in his blog post is that timelines vary depending on a number of factors. But what if this isn’t just a normal setback?

What internal options do the Red Sox have?

Well, there’s Tzu-Wei Lin who struggled at the major league level earlier this season. But he has a 119 wRC+ for AAA Pawtucket with 4 HR and 2 SB. He’s an excellent defender at short, and would be a fine replacement for Pedroia’s glove. Unlike Eduardo Nunez, who is barely passable defensively. His offensive upside is limited by a lack of home run power. But gets on base well and hits plenty of line drives.

Speaking of Eduardo Nunez, they could continue trotting him out there. He’s appeared at second 54 times this season so far. Unfortunately, his bat has failed to show up with him. He also had some knee trouble. And given the lack of stolen bases this season, it might still be bothering him. With a 66 wRC+, he needs to get hot soon or the Red Sox will be forced to try something else.

That something else might be Blake Swihart. The front office has been adamant about not giving up on him, but they simply can’t find regular playing time for him. Thus far, irregular playing time hasn’t suited him. He’s sporting a nifty 7 wRC+. That’s 93% worse than league average for those of you busting out the calculators at home. Even still, it wouldn’t be shocking to see them take one last shot at getting him going this way if Pedroia hits the 60 day DL again.

How about externally?

This is more complicated because the Red Sox have so little room before hitting the secondary luxury tax threshold. The secondary threshold is actually the third point at which penalties are assessed, but the second is a minor jump of a 12.5% tax rate. So it’s not really worth paying attention to. It’s when teams get to $40M over the $197M luxury tax threshold that really bad things start to happen.

You can get all the details here, but the gist of it is this: Once the Red Sox exceed $237M in payroll for the year, their tax rate on the overage jumps to 42.5% and their top pick in next year’s draft drops 10 spots. That may not sound like a huge drop in the draft, especially for a team picking near the end of the first round anyway. But the Red Sox likely miss out on Triston Casas if they had suffered this penalty going into the the June 2018 draft. And that would have been terrible. So they may limit themselves to minor additions in general, which means players like Dee Gordon or Scooter Gennett aren’t coming to town. It’s also possible that Dave Dombrowski, on the back of a strong draft, may decide the penalty is worth it and blow past even that secondary threshold.

Scooter Gennett or Dee Gordon, then?

Let’s get realistic here. Even if the Mariners decide they aren’t going to the playoffs (despite having a firm grasp on the second wild card slot), Dee Gordon isn’t the guy. He’s got an 85 wRC+ on the year. Sure, the 19 swipes are nice, but with Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr. and eventually a healthy (hopefully) Eduardo Nunez on the roster, they’re not hurting for steals. No, Scooter Gennett is the more likely acquisition either way.

Gennett has a 144 wRC+ for the last place Reds, with 14 HR and below average defense at second. Whether he’s worse than Nunez with the glove is debatable. But the offense is clearly better, even after we consider the .387 BABIP. He’s making $5.7M this season as an arbitration 2 player. That means he has one more season of semi-cost control left before hitting free agency. And, a pro-rated $5.7M could be as little as $1.9M. That means with a little outgoing payroll, they could stay below that $237M. (Cot’s Baseball Contracts has the Red Sox at $235,325,600.00 so far.)

There are additional mitigating factors, however.

The Red Sox are in dire need of some bullpen help. So even if they can keep a Scooter Gennett acquisition from pushing them into the highest penalty bracket, the additional needs would surely do them in. That means Dave Dombrowski has to come to the conclusion that going that far with the team’s payroll is worth the penalty.

Additionally, the acquisition of Scooter Gennett will not come terribly cheap. Even in a buyer’s market, he’s likely to cost something of some significance. And prospects with significant value are a rarity in Boston these days. The only way a package for Gennett is going to come together is if the Reds really like one of Boston’s on-the-shelf prospects like MIchael Chavis or Jay Groome. Chavis is serving an 80 game suspension for PED use, and Jay Groome is recovering from Tommy John surgery. Neither seems likely to be headlining a deal this summer. Perhaps the Reds are high on Josh Ockimey or Jalen Beeks, though. Both are having excellent minor league seasons. They could also gamble on Bobby Dalbec’s 132 wRC+ with 14 HR in high-A Salem. His power is legitimate, but it’s a three true outcomes approach which is tough to maintain.