Red Sox: Triston Casas signs for slot money, where does he rank in top 10?
By Damian Dydyn
First round pick Triston Casas has officially signed. Where does he rank in the Red Sox top 10? Probably higher than you think.
Boston Red Sox first round pick Triston Casas has signed a slot deal for $2,552,800.00. The power hitting first baseman was picked 26th overall on Monday, June 4. He will immediately be one of the best prospects in the Red Sox farm system. That’s partially because of how thin that system currently is, and partially because of how good Casas might be. His potential is through the roof. With a 70 grade raw power and a solid hit tool, he may fly through the minors, even though he is a high school draftee. Now, that likely still means three years before making his debut, but an age 21 debut is nothing to sneeze at.
So where does he rank in the top 10? The most up to date rankings for the Red Sox are probably found at soxprospects.com. They update several times a year and currently have the top ten looking like this:
The SoxProspects.com Top 10
- Michael Chavis, 3B
- Tanner Houck, RHP
- Bryan Mata, RHP
- Jay Groome, LHP
- Jalen Beeks, LHP
- Mike Shawaryn, RHP
- Darwinzon Hernandez, LHP
- C.J. Chatham, SS
- Josh Ockimey, 1B
- Sam Travis, 1B
That’s a really ugly list. When your top prospect is serving a suspension for steroid use, you’re in some trouble. Now, there’s no way you can drop a high school bat at the top of a farm system, no matter how thin it is. So we’re not going to predict that Triston Casas ends up that high. But he will crack the top 5 most likely. The question is where?
That depends on whether we’re dropping him into this list or prognosticating about what the list will look like when they update again in August. Right now? I probably wouldn’t quibble too much with someone slotting him in ahead of Houck. But personally, I’m more likely to stick him between Houck and Mata.
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What about in August?
That’s more complicated, as there has been some intriguing development by a few names not his list, and some not rated that highly this spring. Bobby Dalbec is tearin up high-A Salem right now, even if his approach is a tightrope walk. His ceiling is high enough that he deserves to be added, which pushes Sam Travis off. If Dalbec keeps up what he’s done the last two seasons, I might start my new top 10 with him. Again, that’s an indictment of the system, but it is what it is. I’d also have Jalen Beeks moving up considering his dominance in AAA. No, his one bad major league start doesn’t mean much. Yet. So we have a new 1 and 2.
And it’s hard to drop Houck much given his floor. He’s working on incorporating a four seam fastball to his mix right now, so his results don’t look pretty. But he’s got a fantastic two seamer and a nice slider. If the attempt to build on his arsenal fails and he ends up in the pen, he’s got late inning potential. So he’d be three. Then Chavis hangs on at 4. At least until he comes back from his suspension and shows he can still hit bombs. After that, it’s tough to argue for anyone else being ahead of Casas.
The almost made it club.
Jay Groome still has an enormous ceiling but has lost the first two years of his development to injuries. Bryan Mata has lost the ability to hit the strike zone. Mike Shawaryn has a nice floor, but a limited ceiling. Darwinzon Hernandez is intriguing, but like Mata, can’t find the zone. Chatham is hitting, but has yet to flash any power. And Sam Travis seems well on his way to busting.
Only Josh Ockimey seems to have made a case for a top 5 spot in the new ranking. And while I’m encouraged by his 145 wRC+ and 8 HR in AA Portland, his ceiling is limited by defensive shortcomings and solid, but not spectacular power. So that’s where Casas is going. Right behind Chavis at 4 and in front of Josh Ockimey at number 6. You are looking at your new number 5 overall prospect, folks.
Next: Red Sox left-handed prospect Jalen Beeks to get a start
And if the team signs Nicholas Northcut, as it is rumored to be close to, you may see another 2018 draftee in the top 10. So keep an eye out for updates and let us know what you think in the comments! Do we have Casas too high? Too low? Where would you put him?