Machado won’t sign.
Given his history with the Red Sox, Boston likely isn’t his top preference for a landing spot in free agency. Sure, a massive contract would heal a lot of wounds, but he will find similar money no matter where he signs. That would require getting to free agency, however. And that makes the chances of working out an extension as part of a trade very low. At best, the Red Sox would be able to re-sign him over the winter. But that means there is no added value to trading for him now. Except, perhaps, giving him a chance to experience Boston as a member of the team. If we’re talking hundreds of millions of dollars, that’s just not going to be a big factor in making his decision.
Then there are his ties to New York. Whether it’s his connection to Alex Rodriguez, or just a desire to be a Yankee, the Baltimore Orioles shortstop has been connected to the Bronx Bombers for a while. Sure, the emergence of Miguel Andujar may lessen the need, but the struggles of Didi Gregorius could open the door at shortstop. Gregorius is only under control through the end of next year. And having him come off the bench in 2019 would be a huge weapon. At the very least, Machado needs to see what the Yankees (and others) are willing to offer.
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The farm has no real answers.
Ken Rosenthal did point to Michael Chavis as a possible answer at third if Machado walks. Even if we shrug off the suspension, however, he’s a poor replacement for Rafael Devers. For one, Devers has a much higher ceiling. Dave Cameron, while still working for Fangraphs, described his upside as being in the range of a Freddie Freeman. No matter how perfectly things go for Michael Chavis, he’s not getting anywhere near that level of production at the plate. Chances are he’s more of a Lucas Duda type, which would still be valuable. Especially if he can stick at third. And that’s the other question.
If you are uncomfortable with Devers at the hot corner, you should not be pining for Michael Chavis. He may be better at making throws to first, but his range and reactions are significantly poorer, and his hands aren’t nearly as soft. He’s more likely to end up at first than Devers is. Yes, the system also has Bobby Dalbec finding an intriguing balance offensively. But at best he’s looking at a 2019 late season arrival. Not exactly what the Red Sox need for their current window. If Dave Dombrowski sends Devers off to Baltimore for Machado, and Machado walks, the team is in a bind next season.