Red Sox Rumors: Could Rafael Devers be traded for Manny Machado?

The trade deadline is looming on the horizon and with it comes speculation and Red Sox rumors. Will they trade Rafael Devers for Manny Machado?

Ken Rosenthal is one of the best baseball writers out there. But even the best can go off the rails once in a while. Such is the case with his recent trade deadline speculation piece in which he suggests the Boston Red Sox send Rafael Devers to the Baltimore Orioles for Manny Machado. It’s fine to speculate on Red Sox rumors, but this one is at least a step too far. Here’s the relevant quote:

“Would the Sox give up say, five-plus years of third baseman Rafael Devers if the Orioles also included one of their potential free-agent relievers, Zach Britton or Brad Brach, and maybe a prospect”

He goes on to point to Michael Chavis, currently serving an 80 game suspension for steroid use, as a reason they could part with Devers. He also points out that this would be a very Dave Dombrowski move. The problem is, it makes absolutely no sense from the Red Sox perspective. Let’s dig into why.

The Luxury Tax Threshold.

The Red Sox are already over the threshold of $197M, so what’s the harm in going even further past that figure? If you read that entire page you would see that there are tiers above the threshold that trigger additional penalties. In a season with a championship caliber team, it makes sense to take an additional tax hit. But that’s not all that’s at stake here. How does the overage structure break down?

For a first time offender, which the Red Sox are, going up to $20M past the threshold means paying 20% on every dollar you are over. At $20-40M past the threshold, it’s an additional 12%. If a team exceeds the threshold by $40M or more, the final stage of penalties kicks in. And it’s a doozy. The tax jumps to 42.5% on any overage, but that’s not all. It also moves the team’s next first round pick back ten spots in the draft order. And for those think that’s not a big deal, the Red Sox likely miss out on Triston Casas earlier this month if their pick is ten spots lower. Or, imagine that penalty being leveraged in 2015 when they selected Andrew Benintendi.

How would Machado impact that secondary threshold?

The Cot’s Baseball Contracts running salary tracker currently lists the Red Sox at $235,325,600.00 this season. That’s very close to the $237M limit before that first round pick is impacted. Manny Machado is being paid $16M this season, so even a prorated amount of that puts the Red Sox over. That’s not likely something they are willing to do.

And that’s before considering Zach Britton’s $12M contract. The contracts just don’t fit, which means the Orioles would need to eat virtually all of the money remaining on both deals. A return like Rafael Devers would likely be the best they could hope for when trading a rental package like Manny Machado and Zach Britton. So eating the contracts may well be something they are willing to do. But the money isn’t the only reason for the Red Sox to say no.

Could the free agent market bail them out?

The free agent market for third baseman is actually pretty interesting next winter. Let’s look at it with the assumption that Machado doesn’t want to return to Boston after finishing the season there. What’s left is a mix of veterans that could all provide solid production. They are all also old enough that any deal signed is likely to end poorly. Adrian Beltre will be 40, and might be the most interesting option. He’s still very good when healthy, but can he stay on the field? If they can get one mostly healthy season out of him on a one year deal, that might be the best way to try and get to Dalbec.

Beyond him there is Mike Moustakas who is basically repeating a 2017 season that landed him one year at $6.5M guaranteed. Josh Donaldson will be 33 and is in the midst of a league average season at the plate and has struggled to remain healthy. He was one of the top third basemen in baseball until this season, though. And that means he won’t be likely to sign for short years or money. Does the team really want to sign another veteran third baseman to a big contract with the last year of Pablo Sandoval still on the books? Speaking of, Panda will be available too. More seriously, so will Jed Lowrie. He’s another veteran who has had trouble staying on the field throughout his career. The free agent market could offer an answer, but not without significant risk.

And then there is Devers’ upside.

Besides, Devers is likely to improve as the season goes on and may be better than any of those free agents in the next five years. He’s just 21 years old and is holding down a starting gig at the major league level. That’s remarkable all on its own. Chris Hatfield of soxprospects.com had a nice reminder on that front recently:

So, sure, the 79 wRC+ is discouraging to see, as are the 13 errors. Of course, 10 of those errors were from before May 25th. Only three have happened since. His rate has dropped from one every 4.9 games to one every 5.3. He’s still not where we want to see him, but he is improving. At the plate, Devers is showing signs of turning it around. And he’s hit 10 HR in 66 games. That’s not far off his 10 hit in 58 games in 2017. In fact, his total rate of HR in the majors is one for every 6.2 games he plays. That a 26 HR pace over 162 games.

Not bad for a kid barely old enough to drink. He has work to do, but that’s true of virtually every 21 year old ever to play in the majors.

Don’t forget about the cost savings.

And now we’re back to salary. Only this time, it’s from the angle of signing extensions for the other young studs on the roster. The team is going to need to extend some or all of Craig Kimbrel, Chris Sale, Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Joe Kelly, Xander Bogaerts, and Brock Holt by 2021. Having Devers manning third base for the league minimum goes a long way toward making it possible for the team to secure most of that talent. Let’s just say, for the moment, that the team is able to work out an extension for Manny Machado as part of the trade. That’s probably $30M per year tied up going forward.

Who from the above list do they let go to make that happen? Of that group, Mookie Betts, Chris Sale, and Xander Bogaerts are all in line for big pay days. Bogaerts may be closer to $20M a year than $30M, but both Betts and Sale will be in that range. Can the team carry both along with David Price for a combined $90 million on top of Machado? I’m not so sure. For one year, it might be worth blowing past that secondary tax threshold, but this would make it tough to get back under in the near future. Chances are the Red Sox would let one of those three go to make the Machado money work.

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Is Machado worth it?

There’s an argument for that being worth it. But if the team can have Devers giving them 85% of what Machado does next year for the league minimum, wouldn’t you pick that? And before you scoff, that’s not an outrageous hope. Machado is basically a lock for 35 HR in any given year. 85% of that would be 30, which is just a nominal step forward from the rate Devers has hit at so far. And if his 77 games in AA are any indication, his OBP and SLG should rebound to respectable levels. Even his 58 games in the majors last year suggest he’s going to see positive regression.

We could assume that his age 20 2017 season is what he’ll be his entire career, and I’d still pick that over paying Machado market rate this winter. A 111 wRC+ with a .338 OBP, a .482 SLG and 28 HR over 162 games at league minimum is hugely valuable. So no, I don’t think a trade for Machado is worth it, even if he will sign an extension. Reasonable minds can disagree on that particular idea, but even that is likely a moot point. It seems incredibly unlikely that he will forgo free agency this winter, which makes this a rental trade. And you simply don’t give up a player like Rafael Devers in a trade for a rental. Or two rentals.

What about the prospect Rosenthal mentioned?

And while Rosenthal did include the caveat of a prospect being involved, it seems unlikely the Orioles would give up anyone worth putting Devers on the table for. Austin Hays might be worth it but would have nowhere to play in Boston in the near term. So the team would be creating a hole to build surplus. Ryan Mountcastle does play third base, and is expected to make it to the majors next year some time, but his bat sputtered out in AA last year. It’s looking better in his second go at the level, but he’s more of a high floor than a high ceiling player. His defensive limitations mean the bat really needs to play up to be worth keeping him at the hot corner.

And there just doesn’t appear to be that much bat there. Fangraphs has him as a future 45 grade player, which is below average. Outside of those two, I’m not sure they have a prospect good enough to consider including Devers in a deal. Hunter Harvey still has a nice ceiling, but can’t stay on the field. D.L. Hall is very far away. Tanner Scott is likely in the Orioles’ plans for the future and wouldn’t be available. The proverbial “and a prospect” was likely just a way of saying that Machado and Britton alone aren’t enough to get Devers. And he’s right about that. A closer look leaves me less than optimistic that there’s a match here.

This just isn’t going to work out.

Would having Manny Machado at third base the rest of the season make it more likely that the team will win the division and make a playoff run? Yeah, absolutely. Even if Rafael Devers catches fire the way he did when first called up last season, Machado will probably be better. But it would hurt their chances next year, and seriously damage the team long term. As enticing as the results this season are, it’s just not good decision making to pay that much in future value for such a short term gain. The playoffs in baseball are just too much of a crapshoot to make that bet.

Next: Red Sox: Rafael Devers may be breaking out of his slump

How about you? Would this trade be worth it? Is there a prospect in the Orioles’ system worth saying yes for? Would the Orioles even trade within the division? Let us know what you think!