Red Sox 2018 MLB draft signings, news and rumors

With the 2018 MLB Draft in the rearview mirror, we now get to enjoy the signing period. A few of the Red Sox picks have already inked deals. Who’s next?

The MLB draft has been a hit or miss proposition for the Red Sox. But that’s actually true of every team. There’s no such thing as a sure thing, and even first round picks bust on a fairly regular basis. That said, this particular Red Sox ownership group has had a fairly specific approach toward drafting. For bats, they’ve mostly targeted up the middle players with plenty of athleticism. This led to first-round selections of players like Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Blake Swihart. It’s also led to less exciting players like Deven Marrero and Rey Fuentes.

That’s why their selections in the 2018 MLB draft were so surprising. It was like an entire organizational shift was unfolding before our eyes. Instead of those athletic up the middle players, we saw big bats like Triston Casas, Nick Decker, Kole Cottam, and Nicholas Northcut. All but Cottam high schoolers who play corner positions. Casas is a third baseman likely to move to first with massive power and a pretty good hit tool. Decker is a corner outfielder with big pop and some swing and miss. Nicholas Northcut, a Vanderbilt commit and tough sign, has excellent raw power and uses it to all fields. Kole Cottam is a college catcher, but he’s a below average defensive one. His carrying tool, like the previous three, is his power.

Identifying the problem.

So it seems that the front office identified power bats as an area of weakness that needed addressing via the draft. Coming into the season, the only power hitter left on the farm was Michael Chavis. Unfortunately, he is currently serving a suspension for failing a PED test. As the season has progressed, first baseman Josh Ockimey has started hitting for power. He is currently lacing the cleats up for AA Portland. And forgotten 2016 4th rounder, Bobby Dalbec, has resumed tearing the cover off the ball.

Adding Casas, Northcut, Decker, and Cottam gives the Red Sox another legitimate chance to develop a big power bat internally. And doing so is imperative if the club wants to avoid a long rebuild when they start shedding veterans to retain their homegrown stars like Mookie Betts or Xander Bogaerts. In fact, having a few big prospects working their way through the upper minors may increase the chances that the young core sticks around. None of them are likely to want to play for a bad team as their prime years wind down. In a way, it’s almost like the Red Sox had no choice but to draft for big upside, despite the increased risk.

We want the thunder!

Getting back to the bats, Nicholas Northcut’s commitment to Vanderbilt scared off a lot of teams. Despite being an early round talent, he wasn’t drafted until the start of day three, when signing bonuses stop being tied to a team’s bonus pool. Each pick from round 11 through round 40 can be signed for up to $125K. Any overage comes out of the draft pool. But the team does not lose any of that pool for not signing them. This is in contrast with the first ten rounds, where failure to sign a pick means losing the money allotted for that slot entirely.

Northcut falling to the 11th round removed the risk in drafting him. If the team doesn’t secure his signature, they lose nothing but the pick itself. There is a rumor that Northcut flew to Boston this past weekend:

If true, we may find out how much of the money the team saved was needed to get him signed very soon. That bonus promises to be much larger than the $125K soft cap. But if the team didn’t know what he was asking for, or weren’t comfortable with it, they wouldn’t have picked him in the 11th round. Chances are they would have waited until much later and used that pick on someone else they thought they could sign.

Is that the only place they might spend their savings?

Beyond Northcut from day three, there are some interesting names to look for. The Red Sox drafted Chase Shugart in the 12th round. He is a right-handed pitcher from Texas whose stuff plays way up out of the pen. In the 13th they selected Dylan Hardy, a more typical Red Sox pick. He’s a center fielder from South Alabama who has plenty of speed. Both of these picks were made early enough in day three that the team likely feels good about their chances.

Also keep an eye out for Chris Machamer, another college closer who throws in the mid 90’s. Then there is Brandon Howlett. Yet another high school corner infielder with power. He has some significant swing and miss issues, however. Mason Ronan is one of the few pitchers drafted by the Red Sox last week who is likely to be kept as a starter. He throws in the low 90’s from the left side. Jared Poland is a high school second baseman with excellent barreling ability, but a line drive swing. He could grow into some power.

They’ve got nothing to lose.

And finally, there is Zach Watson, a center fielder from LSU. He’s a 70-grade runner, which will help him stay in center and make the most of his solid hit tool. He posts impressive exit velocities, as well, so a tweak to his swing could generate some power that isn’t presently showing. The problem with Watson is that he’s a draft-eligible sophomore, not a junior, so he has tons of leverage. That means he’s going to cost a king’s ransom to sign. He’s all but off the table unless the money the Red Sox have set aside for Northcut becomes available. Even then, it might not be enough.

As it currently stands, the team is likely to sign all of their picks from the first ten rounds, as well as Nicholas Northcut. They have a decent chance to land Shugart and Hardy too. If they sign anything beyond that, and the filler types that populate most of day three, count it as a bonus. If they come away with Triston Casas, Nicholas Northcut, Nick Decker, Kole Cottam, and the rest of their first ten picks, this will have been a very good draft. If they add Mchamer, Howlett or Poland, it might be one of the top drafted classes of the year. Never mind if they pull off a miracle and tack Zach Watson onto that group.

Next: Who are the top-five 1st round picks in Red Sox history?

It may be unlikely that they do the latter. But we’re fans, so why not dream? Who do you think they will sign from day three? Are there any day three selections worth talking about that aren’t included here? Let us know in the comments!