Red Sox Review: Evaluating the first third of the 2018 season

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BOSTON, MA – OCTOBER 19: Boston Red Sox owner John Henry celebrates with the trophy after they defeated the Detroit Tigers in Game Six of the American League Championship Series at Fenway Park on October 19, 2013 in Boston, Massachusetts. The Red Sox defeated the Tigers 5-2 to clinch the ALCS in six games. (Photo by Jared Wickerham/Getty Images) /

Boston Red Sox have just brushed past the one-third season marker with the best record in baseball. Now a look at the first two months and a glance into the future.

By the one-third marker for the season, you have some idea of the team you will have as you push to the season conclusion and a visit (hopefully) to the playoffs. Boston after 56 games (through 5/30) has the best record in baseball. So – how do you like them now?

Despite having two 93 win seasons the Red Sox were unceremoniously tossed from the playoffs. Disappointment? For the denizens of Red Sox Nation, it went well beyond that. In 2017, the team also was tepid. They seemed to lack spark and panache. Maybe it was the David Ortiz hangover? The Red Sox were – for want of a better expression – boring. The team had all the intensity of a sack race.

This season started with question marks and some still persist – expected of all teams. And by now some question marks have been answered, a few still remain, and some unknown(s) will invariably raise some pertinent issues on future success. I am not worried. I am all Alfred E. Neuman – the iconic Mad Magazine “What me worry” – character on 2018 season. The Red Sox will win 100+ games.

ANAHEIM, CA – APRIL 18: Mitch Moreland #18 of the Boston Red Sox is congratulated in the dugout after hitting a two-run homerun during the ninth inning of a game against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim at Angel Stadium on April 18, 2018 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images) /

Offense

Baseball is a numbers game and the numbers get increasingly notable with further refinement of metrics. But before climbing into the metrics rabbit hole is the most important number – winning games. Most wins in baseball.

The major accomplishment in the offseason was perking up the offense. Did that work? The Red Sox of 2017 were dead last in the American League in home runs. The lineup was lethargic by Red Sox standards. No more. Offensively the Red Sox are scoring and hitting home runs.

The home runs are accumulating at a team record pace with new addition J.D. Martinez doing what was expected. Martinez apparently has energized the rest of the lineup with Mookie Betts especially being invigorated as Betts makes another run at AL Most Valuable Player.

The offense is ranked second in the AL with a 10.4 fWAR trailing behind you know who in New York. Take a stat traditional or metric and you will find the Red Sox leading or within statistical hailing distance – batting average, wOBA, wRC+, runs, home runs – quite an accomplishment based on 2017.

There is no reason why this should not continue and even possibly improve. This is an offensive juggernaut and it will be a fun summer as they blast away. The good news – very good news – is the Red Sox have the pitching to avoid a plethora of 12-10 games.

ST. PETERSBURG, FL – MARCH 30: Pitcher David Price #24 of the Boston Red Sox pitches during the first inning of a game against the Tampa Bay Rays on March 30, 2018 at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images) /

Pitching – Starters

The fashionable jargon of manager Earl Weaver: “The only thing that matters is that little bump in the middle of the field.” Just how are the Red Sox managing with that little bump? Naturally, a statistical input does give considerable credence to this being a very good pitching staff.

Collectively the Red Sox – starters and relievers – are ranked second in the AL with an 8.9 fWAR. Breaking it down into both sections the starters are third (6.0 fWAR) and the bullpen is just behind the Yankees (2.8 fWAR). More on the bullpen as click bait will continue.

This rotation is solid – very solid – and it shows within the standings and the statistics. You want to protect your bullpen – keep them as rested as possible – especially if there are concerns. The starters are third in the AL in innings pitched (320.1) and it is quality with a 3.79 ERA and corresponding 3.54 FIP. Home and road the starters have responded.

A key to pitching in baseball circa 2018 is depth and the Red Sox starting depth is solid. Hector Velazquez gave two wins in two starts. Steven Wright may be relocated to the rotation if Drew Pomeranz slides or David Price quits to become a full-time gamer.

With Chris Sale leading off the rotation you have a true “Ace” by any baseball description one wishes to apply. Price is solid if one overlooks the return on investment via his contract. Rick Porcello has reduced the home runs and is reversing the miserable accumulation of losses in 2017. Toss in a steadily improving Eduardo Rodriguez and this may not be the Astros rotation, but it is close – very close.

HOUSTON, TX – OCTOBER 06: Craig Kimbrel #46 of the Boston Red Sox stands on the pitcher’s mound in the eighth inning against the Houston Astros during game two of the American League Division Series at Minute Maid Park on October 6, 2017 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) /

Pitching – Bullpen

My mind is made up so don’t confuse me with facts. That innocuous statement applies to the Red Sox bullpen and how perception can fog over reality since fans have a tendency to focus on meltdowns and bypass the long stretches of statistical accomplishments.

The Red Sox are just behind the Astros with a 3.17 ERA and third with a 3.26 FIP. Despite Craig Kimbrel’s sudden propensity for allowing home runs the Red Sox are rather stingy with a league-best 0.81 HR/9. And walks? Those very painful kidney stones of pitching. Just a 3.08 BB/9. Second best.

The bullpen for Red Sox fans is often viewed as spending an evening with Tomas de Torquemada, but there is a reality – this is a very good bullpen. The blown saves? Just five for the season or one less than the AL-leading Athletics. If holds are a statistic you cherish the Red Sox are second with 38.

I can cherry pick numbers and the fact is simple – the bullpen is reliable, very good, and balanced. For shock value is Joe Kelly who suddenly has decided that this would be a most opportune time to take advantage of his impending free agency by being unhittable. And Matt Barnes is under the radar as his ERA is getting skinny. Maybe Heath Hembree will decide to match Barnes?

Carson Smith was back after an almost two-year hiatus and was showing why the Red Sox corralled him in trade. Then it happened and Smith may be gone – again. And Tyler Thornburg remains a health mystery. If’s are unpleasant since you cannot have a certainty with them. “If” Smith and Thornburg were 100% this would be the best ‘pen in baseball, but maybe that would have excluded the advancement of Kelly and Barnes?

BOSTON, MA – OCTOBER 08: Dustin Pedroia #15 of the Boston Red Sox reacts in the second inning against the Houston Astros during game three of the American League Division Series at Fenway Park on October 8, 2017 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /

Defense

Last season the Red Sox were first in the AL in team defense, but a caveat was attached – Betts. Betts skewered the numbers somewhat with his usual defensive acumen. So far the results are a team that is statistically average with a collective 4.8 UZR/150. Another note of disappointment is a -19 on Defensive Runs Saved (DRS).

Two items should lead to a slow but steady improvement as the season moves forward. Dustin Pedroia is back and Hanley Ramirez is gone. Eduardo Nunez has a -7 DRS at second this season. That is the “highest” negative for DRS on the Red Sox. Moreland is a former Gold Glove Award winner and may not be a ballet performer at first, but Moreland is as steady as they come. That will help.

The Red Sox outfield has two issues. The first is the lack of defensive prowess of Martinez. This certainly has no shock value since Martinez has never been a noted defensive player. Martinez has a -5 DRS but compared to Jason Bay, Manny Ramirez, and Jonny Gomes he is more than competent.

The next surprise on the list and issue number two is one that makes you question defensive metrics versus what your eyes tell you. Andrew Benintendi and his -4 DRS. Benny isn’t that bad and Rafael Devers (-1 DRS) just isn’t that good. And -4 DRS for Christian Vazquez?

The left side of the infield is certainly one with a few leaks. Xander Bogaerts is average and Devers – with 11 errors – is a warning sign for late inning defensive changes. The right side is solid with Pedroia and Moreland. Defensive possibilities of Brock Holt and Nunez offer little over any weaker links.

BOSTON, MA – MAY 14: Carson Smith #39 of the Boston Red Sox reacts after Khris Davis #2 of the Oakland Athletics hit a home run during the eighth inning at Fenway Park on May 14, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /

Outlook – The Negative

The hitting will continue. Even the recent short-term absence of Betts had no appreciable impact. Martinez has a significant injury history and that cannot be discounted. Pedroia is now 34-years-old recovering from knee surgery and his performance will be monitored.

Every pitcher is one throw away from a rite of passage – Tommy John surgery. Price has had a few issues and Pomeranz even more. Both have experienced elbow conditions the last two seasons. Smith may be done and so may Thornburg.

Devers is a worry with his offense as he looks lost far more often than 2017. The occasional home run is broken up by a series of questionable swings. Seems that Devers is experiencing his AAA development at the MLB level. You can excuse a low average and production with slick fielding. That leaves out Devers.

Is the wait over for Jackie Bradley? JBJ went 50 games before his bat came out of hibernation. And that means it will soon have another visit to waving away at anything close to the plate. Players slump and players get hot, but JBJ has it down to an art form.

Thankfully Sandy Leon has suddenly found the same level of success he had in 2016. The catchers have been a lineup black hole until recently, but what about Vazquez? Vaz hit .290 in 2017 and the conclusion was 100+ games as a starter. Now he seems lost.

The Yankees are an issue. The best road to follow into the playoffs is to win a division and Boston has done that back-to-back. New York will be a roadblock and I can certainly build a case for the Yankees being the best team in the league and maybe baseball. They are that good.

BOSTON, MA – MAY 29: Red Sox Manager Alex Cora in the dugout before the game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Fenway Park on May 29, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /

Outlook – The Positive

This is about as solid a Red Sox team as I can remember and I go back a very long way. A road trip used to represent a feeling of impending doom. The typical Red Sox team built and designed for Fenway Park with a preponderance of one-dimensional sluggers moving station to station. No more.

Boston Red Sox have just brushed past the one-third season marker with the best record in baseball. Now a look at the first two months and a glance into the future.

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