Red Sox Debate: Mookie Betts vs Mike Trout for AL MVP
Which superstar is the frontrunner for AL MVP – Boston Red Sox right fielder Mookie Betts or Los Angeles Angels center fielder Mike Trout?
Mike Trout has been widely considered to be the best position player in baseball from the moment he burst onto the scene in 2012. The two-time MVP is having another incredible season. Is it the best performance in the league? Or is this the year that Boston Red Sox outfielder Mookie Betts surpasses him?
A recent ESPN article outlined why Trout is on pace to deliver the greatest season in major league history, at least according to Baseball-Reference’s wins above replacement. Through the quarter mark of the season, Trout is on pace for a jaw-dropping 14.2 WAR that would top Babe Ruth‘s single-season record of 14.1 WAR set in 1923.
Trout’s all-around game makes him the perfect specimen for an all-encompassing statistic such as WAR. However, Red Sox fans are left to wonder why their own five-tool player isn’t leading the category. The Gold Glove outfielder who currently leads the league in almost every offensive category.
At this point of the season, Trout’s major-league leading 3.5 WAR tops Betts, who ranks second with 3.1 WAR. How can there be that much of a gap when Betts has the edge in almost every category that factors into the formula?
Entering Friday, the star outfielders have similar sample sizes. Trout has played in four more games than Betts but has only one more at-bat. He has tallied 17 more plate appearances, although that’s hardly enough to make much of a difference when calculating WAR.
Starting with the offensive production, Betts has a decisive lead in most categories.
| AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ | Doubles | Triples | HR | BB | |
| Betts | .364 | .438 | .734 | 1.172 | 205 | 16 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| Trout | .290 | .431 | .600 | 1.031 | 182 | 8 | 2 | 12 | 37 |
There’s no denying that Betts is having the better season at the plate. The only category Trout gets the better of him in is walks yet the superior batting average of Betts still leaves him with the higher OBP.
Betts leads the American League in runs scored, hits, batting average, slugging, OPS and OPS+. The FanGraphs leaderboards also show him at the top of the list with a .483 wOBA and 207 wRC+ this season. If Betts isn’t leading the league in an offensive category, he’s at least close to the top.
The Baseball-Reference WAR formula uses Batting Runs (Rbat). Betts has been worth 23 Rbat this season while Trout is at 19 Rbat.
If the offensive production was the only aspect that mattered in baseball then Betts would be the obvious choice for MVP. However, WAR considers other factors, as should the voters.
Baserunning is another area where Betts has a slight advantage. He’s tied for second in the AL with 11 steals in 13 attempts this season. That total is boosted by Thursday’s three-steal performance against Baltimore’s Kevin Gausman, who seemed oblivious to every runner on base. But hey, all steals count the same.
More from Red Sox News
- Red Sox Nation deserves far more from Fenway Sports Group
- Bizarre trade deadline comes back to haunt Red Sox after Nathan Eovaldi departure
- Red Sox’ Moneyball-style offseason continues with Corey Kluber contract
- Rich Hill’s Red Sox departure puts him within striking distance of unique MLB record
- Red Sox offseason takes another nasty hit with Nathan Eovaldi departure
Trout has converted all eight of his steal attempts. He’s a bit behind in total but his perfect percentage is a feather in his cap.
Baserunning is about more than stolen bases. Advancing from first to third on a base hit, tagging up on a fly ball, and avoiding double plays are among the factors that count toward Baserunning Runs (Rbr). Betts has produced 2 Rbr this season while Trout is at 1 Rbr.
Trout takes an extra base at a higher rate with a 46 XBT% that is slightly higher than Mookie’s 44 XBT%. Trout has also made one fewer out on the bases than Betts has this year. It’s not much of a difference yet still an advantage for the Angels star.
FanGraphs has their own way of measuring baserunning with a stat called BsR. Betts is tied for 8th in the AL with 2.0 BsR while Trout is 13th with 1.6 BsR.
As far as both sites are concerned, both are elite baserunners but Betts has been a little bit better.
So far it seems that Betts is running away with this competition but here’s where it gets interesting. Defense.
Betts is a two-time Gold Glove winner, one of the few awards Trout doesn’t have on this resume. You would think that WAR would favor Betts in this department, right? Not so fast.
Baseball-Reference uses defensive runs saved for its WAR formula, a stat Betts led all outfielders in last season with 31 DRS. Trout was actually a below-average -6 DRS last season.
This year the tables have turned. Trout is tied for sixth among major league outfielders with 6 DRS while Betts is at 2 DRS. Betts has been a bit below his usual standards but remains a very good defensive outfielder. While he trails Trout in this category, it’s not by a significant margin.
The major difference between them is the position they play. WAR weighs defensive value based on the importance of the position. Trout plays a premium position in center field, which WAR gives him more credit for than Betts gets for playing right field. While the defensive metrics show only a marginal difference in their production, Trout’s advantage is magnified by the positional adjustment.
Mookie’s off the charts defensive metrics are partially attributed to him being compared to others at his position. The corner outfield spots typically have weaker defenders than center field. Betts has been well above-average at his position over his career since the average right fielder isn’t all that great with the glove. Trout has to compete with a deeper pool of elite center fielders.
Betts is certainly capable of playing center, which he has done on occasion. Fenway Park has a notoriously difficult right field corner that Betts has proven to have mastered. It makes sense for the Red Sox to keep him at that position, especially in home games. Boston also has Jackie Bradley as their primary center fielder, an elite defender in his own right.
Sticking Betts in right field is the correct move based on the makeup of this roster and dimensions of his home ballpark. It’s unfortunate that this hinders his value in the eyes of WAR, as this is the primary reason why Betts trails Trout.
WAR is not the be-all-end-all of stats. There are some who swear by it and others who despise it. We even have various versions of the stat since different sites can’t agree on the formula. For what it’s worth, FanGraphs has Betts leading the majors with 3.2 WAR. Trout is third on their list with 2.8 WAR. The most significant difference is how FanGraphs rates defense, as their UZR metric is far more kind to Betts.
It may not be a perfect stat but WAR is the closest metric we have to evaluate the full value of a player. It’s the closest we can get to being able to compare players from different eras.
When it comes to the MVP race, many voters have come around to including WAR as a factor but it’s not the deciding factor. The player with the best WAR has to be in the conversation but doesn’t win the award by default.
If Betts remains ahead in the offensive categories it may carry him to his first MVP award since voters typically put more emphasis on production at the plate. He may even further close the gap in DRS given his strong track record in the field.
Next: Red Sox potential bullpen trade targets
Ultimately, that may not even be enough to surpass Trout in the WAR category. The reason essentially boils down to the position they play. Betts may fall short of being the most valuable player as far as Baseball-Reference is concerned but he should still be considered the frontrunner for MVP.