The Red Sox and Yankees early results: How do they match-up?
The Boston Red Sox and New York rivalry is back. The two have had one meeting with more to follow. Tempers have flared and both are and will go to the wire for the AL East.
It’s always about the New York Yankees with Red Sox fans. The rest of the American League East are rivals – as is the rest of major league baseball – but with the Yankees it is and always has been personal. Both teams have had their streaks this season and their injuries. The back and forth between the two will be ongoing all season with head-to-head and scoreboard watching.
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With a month in the books, how do they line up against each? This is the April only view with a prediction towards October for each position. Just how do they measure up? We have had a glimpse of both and both look ready to give the Astros a run for the American League flag. Ask the Angels about that.
The beauty is the 19 games against each other and with the Wild Card both will be in the playoffs. Could anything be more baseball enticing than a Red Sox-Yankees playoff? Maybe this will be the year?
First Base
The Yankees once again lost Greg Bird and now first is in the hands or fisticuffs of Tyler Austin with newcomer Neil Walker sharing duties. But Walker may soon be gone due to performance issues. Austin does have some punch (pun intended) with five home runs, but neither will be in any Gold Glove debates. The 0.0 fWAR tells the story.
Hanley Ramirez and Mitch Moreland handle the first base chores for Boston and both have hit – especially HanRam – as they hover around a collective .300. Defensively Ramirez is questionable, and Moreland has a Gold Glove in his back pocket. If Ramirez is back to a 2016 level he will most certainly enjoy his contract kick in.
The Red Sox also have some minor league talent is Sam Travis who had an outstanding spring training for the Red Sox with some respectable power. At Pawtucket, Travis finished April in a bit of a slump and dropped below .300.
April Edge: Red Sox
Season Prediction: Red Sox and Ramirez/Moreland combo offsetting a Byrd home run binge.
Second Base
No Dustin Pedroia and now no Brock Holt who was hitting .340 until Mr., Hammy paid an unfortunate visit. Eduardo Nunez was outstanding in 2017 and this is 2018 and outstanding is a memory. Nunez has had a quiet bat. The position has produced a 0.4 fWAR and as far as defense? Pedroia is sorely missed as in -6 DRS. Fully expect a healthy Pedroia ready to make up for lost time and make a run at a .300 year.
Collectively New York has received even less from second base than Boston with a -0.7 fWAR, but they may finally settle on Gleyber Torres. Torres is the high ranked prospect who may be ready to turn the position around and put Ronald Torreyes into a spot role. Defensively they will upgrade with Torres. Torres shows the value of astute trading.
April Edge: Red Sox
Season End Prediction: Red Sox thanks to Pedroia. But Torres will be the future.
Third Base
The Yankees are at 1.0 fWAR and the Red Sox at 0.6 fWAR. The third base situation is now Miguel Andujar and Rafael Devers who both are young and with a world of promise. Devers has had his moments and the power is undeniable. Can he clock 30 home runs? If there is a surprise for Boston it is Devers fielding.
So far Devers has 3 DRS and is 0.8 UZR for the month. Andujar is at -3 DRS and his -1.8 UZR is borderline average defensively. Devers has been the only staple at third for Boston and his hard numbers match up with New York which relied on Torreyes before handing the job to Andujar. From what I have seen of Andujar the Yankees will be solid at third for the next ten years. Right now Andujar is leading the AL in doubles and hitting .300.
April Edge: Even
Season End Prediction: Yankees with Andujar out hitting and fielding Devers.
Shortstop
The numbers for Didi Gregorius are MVP worthy. The numbers are insane in the early going and Gregorius is no slouch on defense. For Boston, Xander Bogaerts has been hot, but also on the DL for an extended period. Bogaerts is back to his Silver Slugger years, but Gregorius is having something special.
The Bogaerts injury may have set him back, but big things were expected this season especially with the long ball. Based on the early results it may have been an unfortunate wrist injury that caused average and power to plummet in 2017. Can Bogaerts be the best in the AL at short? If he hits 40 out with 120 RBI and that will not happen. Maybe a six pack of grand slams?
Defensively Bogaerts is best described as an average player. That has been evident throughout his MLB career so any expectations of a significant defensive edge are fantasy. Gregorius is not flashy, but a smooth shortstop who may not be Francisco Lindor, but is not that far behind. This is – to me – the best player on the Yankees.
April Edge: Yankees
Season End Prediction: Yankees with a possible MVP shortstop.
Catcher
Gary Sanchez is hitting around .200, but it is as hard and dangerous .200 I have ever seen. And defensively the New York catchers are metrically ahead of the Boston tandem of Sandy Leon and Christian Vazquez. Offensively the Red Sox duo is dead last in MLB. Don’t discount New York’s Austin Romine who seems to be able to get some key hits. A worthy backup.
The Red Sox may need an offensive upgrade at catching with Leon and Vazquez just not hitting as expected and that could mean an opportunity for Blake Swihart. But based on Sanchez’s numbers the Red Sox need a Jason Varitek to counter. Maybe even a Carlton Fisk?
If there is one position on both teams where the advantage is predominant it is catcher. Neither Red Sox catcher can provide the power and clutch hitting of Sanchez who will undoubtedly raise his average above the near .200 it rested at in April. And Sanchez may not have the footwork of Leon or Vaz, but his arm certainly matches up with any catcher.
April Edge: Yankees
Season End Prediction: Yankees with Sanchez an All-Star and in the MVP mix.
Outfield
Both teams have exceptional right fielders that certainly weighs on the statistics. Aaron Judge would win a Gold Glove if Mookie Betts played elsewhere on the diamond. Judge is a very underrated defensive player. Both Betts and Judge are offensive machines and the linchpins of their outfield. The Red Sox and Yankees are ranked first and second at the end of April based on fWAR.
Defensively New York has +6 DRS and Boston is a flat zero. Jackie Bradley is at a -2.5 UZR and that is behind both Brett Gardner (0.4 UZR) and Aaron Hicks (0.2 UZR). JBJ is defensively superior to both and my assumption is the small early season sample is an impact as J.D. Martinez (+0.3 UZR) and Andrew Benintendi (-0.5 UZR) statistically outperform Bradley. My eyes tell me a different story.
The fall off after Betts and Judge are apparent in the offense. Bradley is barely above .200 and Gardner is in the same situation. Hicks had some surprising punch in 2017, but this is 2018. Benintendi has started slow, but even that is well above the others mentioned.
April Edge: Red Sox
Season End Prediction: Red Sox with Benintendi getting close to 30/30.
Designated Hitter
This is the territory of Martinez and Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton has already been targeted by the New York fans for his ability to accumulate strikeouts in bunches. That, of course, will change once Stanton goes on a tear. Both wander to the outfield, but both are clearly DH material based on the defensive outfield talent of both teams. So for the sake of comparison that is what they will be. And both are in a nice K race whiffing almost ⅓ of their plate appearances.
Martinez is as advertised and is hitting well above .300 just as he has three of his last four seasons. Like Stanton expect the strikeouts, but also expect a batting average that is praiseworthy. They will be compared to each other as long as they remain with their teams.
Both have hit five home runs and JDM has 22 RBI to Stanton’s 15 RBI. Martinez has never been a big walk guy with a season-high of just 53 (twice). Stanton – despite his prodigious power – has never topped the 100 walk plateau. This season Stanton has 12 free passes and Martinez just seven. What stands out is Martinez’s .443 BABIP compared to Stanton’s .323.
April Edge: Red Sox
Season End Prediction: Red Sox since Martinez will hit .300+ and Stanton never has.
Bullpen
Both teams have outstanding closers and both teams have depth in their bullpens. New York has certainly been more consistent and is carrying a 2.1 fWAR while Boston comes in with a 1.5 fWAR. The Yankees are ranked first in the AL and the Red Sox second. Fans of both teams routinely complain about their bullpens without realizing how fortunate they are. Just look at the once proud Royals bullpen.
Is there difference makers? Chad Green despite a .345 BABIP has done an excellent job for the Yankees in April. Old hand David Robertson has been his usual self (.212 BABIP), but the ‘pen is posting a 12.70 K/9 and it is not all Aroldis Chapman. Just about the entire crew is into double digits on K/9. Dellin Betances and Tommy Kahnle have negatively affected the bullpen that has a 5-5 record.
The Red Sox have one big question mark that causes a stability issue and that is Carson Smith. Smith’s performance has forced more of a reliance on Matt Barnes, Joe Kelly, and Heath Hembree. The ongoing issue of Tyler Thornburg is of concern. Can he return? The big if is Smith and Thornburg.
April Edge: Yankees
Season End Prediction: Even thanks to Smith getting his groove back.
Rotation
The Red Sox rotation managed to perform rather well with the absence of Drew Pomeranz. That, however, has changed as Pomeranz has returned with two rather disappointing performances. Spot starts by Hector Velazquez and Brian Johnson were positives. The Red Sox are at a 3.4 fWAR for the first month compared to New York’s 2.8 fWAR.
The difference maker between the two teams rotation is Rick Porcello. A baseball reversal of fortune from 2017 and a revert back to his 2016 season. A 4-0 record and 1.6 fWAR makes Porcello the ace over Chris Sale. For New York Luis Severino is everything they expected. But there is Sonny Gray. Gray has simply fallen apart in the early stages of 2018 with a BB/9 that will have to go down or Gray will sit. Pitched well on the last game of April. Maybe a turnaround?
Next: Red Sox versus Royals series preview
Masahiro Tanaka and C.C. Sabathia have had their usual roller coaster type season of inconsistent starts. Will both find consistency? Will Gray finally locate the plate? Can Jordan Montgomery continue to improve? The Yankees have a few more question marks on the horizon than Boston, but they also have the talent to trade and cap space.
April Edge: Red Sox
Season End Prediction: Red Sox with Eduardo Rodriguez finally stepping up unless he walks the ballpark. Both teams will be very close.
Sources: FanGraphs