Red Sox potential closer options for 2019 if Craig Kimbrel leaves

Can or will the Boston Red Sox re-sign Craig Kimbrel? I have my doubts since options to replace him in the closer role exist.

Auditions may be going on now not for a starring role but for a closing one. What is noted is Craig Kimbrel is on his cusp of free agency and may or not be re-signed by the Boston Red Sox.

I do not own the team, but if I did I would make every effort to re-sign Kimbrel. That said I have a suspicion that the Red Sox will look for a far cheaper solution as a closer. Aroldis Chapman signed a 5-year, $86 million deal and if Kimbrel repeats his 2017 season that contract may be a starting point.

The Red Sox roster is littered with large contracts and some may soon be off the books, but others await.  Chris Sale, Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley, and Xander Bogaerts are in the fiscal wings ready to take center stage. David Price and J.D. Martinez could be paid well into the next decade. Will the Red Sox be willing to absorb another $20 million per year on to the highest payroll in baseball?  Are they willing to start shoveling luxury tax money to other teams?

Not re-signing your own free agents is a risky business venture for a team that is successful financially and with their performance, but Kimbrel is an inviting target to cut costs. The problem is just how do you replace the best in the business? Who do they have on the roster or within the system?

The most likely and aspiring candidate is Carson Smith. He’s under team control through the 2021 season so that is a plus.  But what about performance? With Seattle, Smith did his share of closing getting 13 saves in 2015. Smith also had five blown saves and – if anyone cares – 22 holds.

Smith keeps the ball in the park and the Prima Facie is a career 66.0 GB/% and a Scrooge-like three home runs allowed in 94 games and 90.1 innings (through 4/7).  Smith keeps runners off base thanks to a career 2.9 BB/9, 6.4 H/9, and an 11.4 K/9.  The statistical track record is there for the numbers to point to Smith – but.

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Isn’t there always a “but?” With Smith, it is all about this season and just how he does in back-to-back games and in the prestigious role of getting to Kimbrel. If Smith has returned to his pitching competency displayed in Seattle, then the Red Sox would have a seamless and cheaper transition for closer circa 2019.

If throwing hard is necessary, the Red Sox have someone who certainly throws as consistently hard as Kimbrel in Joe Kelly.  The problem is Kelly has never been responsible for closing and also has a career 1.40 WHIP on the mound. The reason? A career 3.6 BB/9 and 9.0 H/9. A deadly combination in the ninth.  A walk followed by a hit.

Kelly is also a free agent at the end of 2018 and will not be paid close to what Kimbel will get on the market. Kelly’s 2018 will dictate just how his bullpen future may transpire. Will he occasionally close as he did in Tampa for his first nerve-wracking career save? Will he pitch the seventh? Eighth? Manager Alex Cora will be the one setting up Kelly’s future role with Boston or elsewhere.

Matt Barnes has potential to close, but a career 3.7 BB/9 and the propensity for allowing the most untimely of home runs puts that to rest – at least for me.  Barnes seems a rather comfortable fit for mixed bullpen duty and did have 70 appearances in 2017. A string arm, but too many concerns over walks and hits limit Barnes to a support role.

I would love to see Tyler Thornburg on this list based on his 2016 season with the Brewers, but that injury. Will Thornburg pitch again and pitch effectively? That is a question that will be answered in 2018 and if Thornburg returns to his previous performance levels he could be the closer for 2019.

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The Red Sox could also explore the free agent market for 2019 that already has a few names surfacing that could close. Cody Allen and Andrew Miller certainly get attention. I am still of the opinion that one of the major management failings in recent years was not getting Miller back. But both Miller and Allen will not be cheap. And I think the Red Sox may just opt for going as cheap as possible.