Red Sox: Putting Chris Sale’s Opening Day brilliance under the microscope
Despite a painful loss, Chris Sale dominated the Rays in his first start of 2018. Let’s zoom in on that outing and try to uncover more about the staff ace.
Chris Sale enjoyed a quietly fantastic Opening Day start. In six innings of work, the young lefty allowed one hit and no runs while fanning nine. But this is par for the course for Sale. He is, of course, one of the most dominant pitchers of our generation.
Many others have spoken at length about Sale’s dominance on a macro scale and for good reason; Sale currently owns the greatest strikeout to walk rate of any pitcher in baseball history with more than 1,000 innings thrown. He has a career ERA, FIP, and xFIP below three and has produced more than five fWAR in each of the past four seasons. Last season in particular Sale led all big league starters in FIP, fWAR, and virtually every category relating to strikeouts.
But what those stats don’t tell you is why Sale is unhittable. How does the young ace approach hitters, and why do over 30 % of the hitters he faces go down on strikes?
In an effort to shed some light on those questions let’s put a single inning from Sale’s performance yesterday under the microscope. We are going to analyze, batter-by-batter, the very first inning of Sale’s 2018 season.
Batter No. 1 – Matt Duffy
Matt Duffy missed all of 2017 with a heel injury, so this was actually his first big league at-bat in about 18 months. Prior to that heel injury, Duffy was about as average a hitter as one can find, owning a career wRC+ of exactly 100. And he faired about as well as you could hope from an average hitter with 18 months of rust against one of baseball’s best pitchers.
Sale quickly got ahead of the right-handed third baseman throwing a 94 mph fastball and an 87 mph changeup on the outer edge for called strikes. Considering that the count was 0-2 and that Sale is much better at baseball than Duffy, Sale probably could have thrown a fastball down the middle here and just called it a day. But, with the lack of threats behind Duffy in the Rays lineup, Sale and Vazquez decided to play it safe.
The southpaw elevated a fastball above the strike zone, hoping Opening Day jitters would cause Duffy to chase. Duffy took the pitch for a ball, but Sale wouldn’t give up that easily. Sale threw a beautifully spotted changeup off the lower outside edge of the plate, but again Duffy took the pitch for a ball.
Sale was now done being cute; he threw a fastball on the inside edge, which was fouled away, and then blew Duffy away with a 96 mph fastball right over the middle of the plate. Duffy could only manage a feeble half swing at the heater.
Vazquez and Sale’s initial plan seemed to be pitch Duffy on the outer edge – throwing three of his first four pitches there – but Duffy did not strike much fear into the heart of the lanky hurler and eventually, Sale just went with good ol’ number one to set him down swinging.
The fact that Duffy was able to hang with Sale for six pitches was almost impressive, but in the end, he was just a strikeout victim; as Jerry Remy said, “the first of many” for Sale this season.
Batter No. 2 – Kevin Kiermaier
Kevin Kiermaier does not seem like a formidable opponent for Sale. Kiermaier is, of course, one of baseball’s best defensive outfielders and in recent years he’s been a slightly above average hitter; however, he is left-handed and strikes out a lot. Despite this, Kiermaier has had success against Sale in his career, going 5-for-14 with a home run against the southpaw. Opening Day, however, would not go as well for Kiermaier.
Sale’s first pitch was a change that missed up and in. It was a bit of a hiccup, but the rest of the at-bat would go much smoother. Sale then broke off a slider right down broadway that froze Kiermaier and followed that up with a buzzsaw of a two-seamer that Kiermaier half-heartedly swung at and tapped foul.
Now, with a 1-2 count, Sale could have tried to toy with Kiermaier and get him to chase – after all the number three hitter, Carlos Gomez, is not the greatest lineup protection – but Sale was having none of that. After already being forced to throw an ungodly six pitches to Duffy, he went straight after Kiermaier. Sale threw a 97 mph fastball on the upper outside corner that Kiermaier could only dream of catching up with.
Just like that, Sale had set down his first two opponents of 2018 on strikes. As we saw in both situations, Sale has complete faith in his fastball and can spot it on a dime. If you watch carefully, you’ll notice that on all the four-seamers Vazques barely even moves his glove. Against a more potent lineup, perhaps Vazquez and Sale would have been more cautious putting fastballs over the plate. Against a mediocre Rays offense, however, there was no doubt that Sale could blow away his opponents with sheer heat.
Batter No. 3 – Carlos Gomez
At one time, Carlos Gomez was a serious offensive threat. Gomez had a wRC+ of 130 between 2013 and 2014 while garnering MVP votes both years. Those days have passed however and in recent times Gomez has been slightly above average with the stick. Still, Gomez has more pop than the previous two hitters did. Noting that, Sale pitched Gomez a little more carefully.
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Sale started with a changeup low and away that Gomez could only foul off to the opposite field. Sale would then miss up and away with a fastball; the only time his four-seamer missed in the inning.
Noting that most of Gomez’s power comes on the lower inside half of the plate, one would think Vazquez would set up away again. After all, there’s no doubt Vazquez has read the scouting report on arguably the most threatening hitter in the Rays lineup. But Vazquez had confidence in his pitcher and called for a changeup low and in which Gomez popped a mile high to Bogaerts at short.
It was a clean first inning for the lefty. Sale threw only thirteen pitches, but some glimpses of what makes him great were evident. In the inning, Sale threw only one slider, relying instead almost solely on his fastball and changeup. Pitch mix was not the main concern; instead, the three batters faulted because Sale didn’t miss often – and when he did it was always out of the zone – and has insane stuff.
Granted, that is not the most shocking conclusion for a pitcher that, again, has the highest strikeout to walk rate of any starter ever, but the fearlessness with which Sale and Vazquez approached hitters was evident. Sale had no trouble locating his fastball, but Vazquez did not hesitate to set up over the middle part of the plate.
Therein lies one of the keys to Sale’s success. Part of the reason Sale’s walk rate is so low is that he has good enough stuff that he doesn’t even need to attempt to paint corners. This ability to pitch wherever he wants also keeps his pitch count low, allowing him to go deeper into games with a fresher arm than most.
Next: Over/Under Red Sox projections
But, of course, there are many keys to such an amazing track record of success. Not all can be uncovered in thirteen pitches, and while this result may be telling, there’s a lot more we can learn from watching the Red Sox ace. So stick around this season. Every fifth day is sure to be a fun one.