Red Sox predictions for 2018 Opening Day vs Tampa Bay Rays

Making predictions about what we may see when the Boston Red Sox take on the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on Opening Day.

What will happen when the Boston Red Sox open the season on Thursday against the Tampa Bay Rays? The obvious answer is that we’ll have to wait and see. That doesn’t mean we can’t have a bit of fun with making predictions.

Chris Sale gets the Opening Day nod for the Red Sox opposing Rays ace Chris Archer. Who will win the battle of the Chris’? We’ll get to that. Let’s start out by making some other predictions about this game before we determine which team comes out with the victory.

Sale strikes out 12

The runner-up in last year’s Cy Young award race topped 300 strikeouts last season. He’ll get this year off on pace to top that staggering total. Sale struck out 66 Rays in 40 2/3 innings last year. That’s a 14.6 K/9 rate! He struck out 12+ batters in four of his six starts against Tampa Bay. This is a weaker Rays lineup this year after several key departures over the winter. Look for Boston’s ace to dominate the overmatched Rays.

Archer gets rocked

It’s fair to say the Red Sox aren’t Archer’s favorite opponent. He’s 2-12 with a 5.45 ERA in 19 career starts against Boston. Archer has also battled forearm soreness this spring. While he’s expected to be ready for his start on Opening Day, he may not be quite as sharp. That’s a recipe for disaster against this revamped Red Sox lineup.

Betts and Benintendi record multiple-hit games

The damage against Archer starts at the top of the order. Mookie Betts is 12-for-31 (.387) with two doubles and four home runs against Archer. Benny is 5-for-10 with a double. They have more success against Archer than anyone in this Red Sox lineup and have the ability to rattle the Rays ace early.

J.D. Martinez homers

The Red Sox signed Martinez to help solve the power outage that plagued them last season. He won’t waste much time reminding us why that was a wise choice. Martinez is only 4-for-17 (.235) in his career against Archer but he has taken him deep before.

Hanley Ramirez gets the start at first base

Ramirez will be in a first base platoon with Mitch Moreland this season but it won’t be based strictly on right vs left-handed matchups. Even with the right-handed Archer on the mound, expect Ramirez to start. He’s 7-for-21 (.333) against Archer so the matchup should benefit Hanley. In a potential walk year in which his playing time could be limited, it makes sense to keep Ramirez happy and motivated by letting him play on Opening Day.

Walden makes an appearance

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Sale isn’t tossing a complete game in his first start of the season. The bullpen will get involved but if we’re expecting the ace to throw a gem while the lineup thrives against Archer then we should assume there won’t be a need for closer Craig Kimbrel.

If Sale leaves with a comfortable lead then Marcus Walden could get some work in a low-leverage situation. The surprise addition to the 25-man roster may not stick around in the big leagues once the Red Sox get a few of their injured pitchers back from the disabled list. Might as well use Walden while they can and save their more experienced relievers for a more challenging spot.

The Red Sox get their first win

You probably guessed this based on the previous predictions but I’m banking on the Red Sox winning on Opening Day. The Rays are entering another rebuilding phase following the departure of Evan Longoria, Alex Cobb, and Logan Morrison. There simply isn’t much talent left on this roster to compete with a contender like the Red Sox. Not when their ace is on the mound.

Manager Alex Cora proudly boasted that his team had the “friggin’ best record in baseball” this spring. The exhibition schedule doesn’t count toward anything but it will mean something if he can repeat that statement during the regular season. Even if it’s after only one game, it can still be true.

Next: Over/Under predictions for 2018

With four games in Tampa Bay to begin the season followed by a pair in Miami against a Marlins team reeling from their own fire sale, the Red Sox have an excellent opportunity to start 2018 on a high note.