Red Sox: Four reasons that will determine a winning or losing season

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BOSTON, MA – OCTOBER 08: Hanley Ramirez #13 of the Boston Red Sox holds a flag as he takes the field before game three of the American League Division Series between the Houston Astros and the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on October 8, 2017 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /

There are two sides to an argument or debate and that is certainly true with everything about the Boston Red Sox. I have my own self-argument as the season starts.

I get into some hyper baseball discussions and that comes with a special emphasis on the Boston Red Sox. The discussions are usually among those two voices swirling around my brain pan. One voice is the baritone drone that is symbolic of the Fellowship of the Miserable and fully loaded negativity. The other is upbeat to the nth degree and sees everything Red Sox as rainbows and unicorns.

In 2017, the Red Sox won 93 games and collared another divisional crown. In the grand scheme of water down baseball playoffs this is about as significant as winning two bucks on a scratch ticket. Just no bragging rights to getting closed out in the first round in back-to-back playoffs. Do they still embarrass themselves with some type of banner or flag for winning a five-team division?

The Red Sox may or may not have improved dramatically depending upon which voice is currently out screaming the other in an internal competition for why the season will be a World Series run or another year to whine about lousy contracts, overrated talent, and success from bitter rivals.

Here is a quick look at a few areas of concern and just how they may play out in 2018.

HOUSTON, TX – OCTOBER 05: Chris Sale #41 of the Boston Red Sox throws a pitch in the first inning against the Houston Astros during game one of the American League Division Series at Minute Maid Park on October 5, 2017 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) /

The rotation is great!

Is this the best rotation in baseball? Two Cy Young Award winners and one that is a perennial second or third. David Price, Rick Porcello, and Chris Sale are all ace material. Then you have Drew Pomeranz at 17-6 and a rehabilitated Steven Wright who went 13-6 in an injury-marred 2016. And Eduardo Rodriguez is a potential middle to top of the rotation starter. Even Hector Velazquez looks ready to contribute spot starts.

The Red Sox rotation was ranked second in the American League (fWAR 17.0) and that was ahead of the Astros and Yankees. That is a significant accomplishment considering the wasted season for Price and Wright and Porcello’s reverse of 2016. Now all are back and reasonably healthy. By June this rotation will be as solid as any in recent Red Sox history.

The rotation is very questionable

You must be residing in a rose-colored vacuum not to realize this rotation appears like a visit to the orthopedic department at St. Elsewhere’s. Pick a body part? Knee? Elbow? Forearm? This staff has them all. And what is the over/under that more than one pitcher may be faced with the unmentionable pitching surgery? Already the MIA is two starters to begin the season. Not even outta the gate and they are down for the count!

The statistics in 2017 were bolstered by Sale’s typical season and Pomeranz having a season that defied metrics. Porcello? If J.D. Martinez hits as many home runs as Porcello gave up (38) he’ll be a bargain. Face it – Porcello’s 2016 was a career anomaly. And for support when all crumbles? Just think Velazquez and Brian Johnson. I am sure the Yankees lineup is quivering with fear.

This rotation will be a reminder of just how fragile pitching can be. Just how long can you go with a series of five-innings or less each start? I expect Dombrowski to send out the pack mules and try to locate Sean O’Sullivan by August. Is Paul Byrd officially retired?

BOSTON, MA – OCTOBER 08: Andrew Benintendi #16, Mookie Betts #50 and Jackie Bradley Jr. #19 of the Boston Red Sox celebrate defeating the Houston Astros 10-3 in game three of the American League Division Series at Fenway Park on October 8, 2017 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /

Solid defense is a plus

In 2017, the Red Sox were the best defensive team in the American League. Yes, I know, that can be weighted by a spectacular outfield, but they did the job. That said the outfield is back in full force and maybe Jackie Bradley will finally win a Gold Glove? The key is having viable defensive replacements and the Red Sox have that on their bench.

New manager Alex Cora knows defense since it was a key ingredient in keeping him in the majors. Cora will with his coaching staff work diligently on defensive improvement in key places and that means special attention to Rafael Devers. The Red Sox also have a catching tandem that is exceptional defensively so there are no worries with the backstop position.

The Red Sox have a proven replacement commodity in Brock Holt. Holt is fully recovered from his ongoing concussion and vertigo issues. His value is he can play anywhere and probably catch if needed. Don’t discount the equally versatile Tzu-Wei Lin who showed superior defense last season for the Red Sox. Late inning replacements who could tighten down late inning defense.

Expect this defense to once again be ranked number one or very, very close to it.

The defense is an Illusion

No worries with the backstop? Right now, the emergence of Blake Swihart could mean Sandy Leon and his solid “D” goes elsewhere. Swihart as a spot catcher? Swihart at third? Swihart in left? And let’s talk left the side. Devers and Xander Bogaerts are a Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) nightmare. A combined -16 in 2017. As for errors Devers had 14 in just 507.2 innings. Put J.D. Martinez in left and that is Moe, Larry, and Curley on the left side. They better hit and hit well to make up for the sieve potential.

The Red Sox will open the season with Eduardo Nunez at second and Nunez is at best average defensively. Then toss in Hanley Ramirez at first base and Shakespeare surfaces as in “The Comedy of Errors.” That infield alignment has the potential for being the worst in recent Red Sox memory.

And when Dustin Pedroia comes back? What used to be the little engine that could now become a Ford Pinto. That would complete an infield that would have Stevie Wonder as an upgrade. And in a genius move the Red Sox ship out the best glove on the roster.

HOUSTON, TX – OCTOBER 06: Mookie Betts #50 of the Boston Red Sox reacts after hitting a double in the first inning against the Houston Astros during game two of the American League Division Series at Minute Maid Park on October 6, 2017 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) /

The offense will be a juggernaut

The addition of Martinez cannot be dismissed and expect the lineup to be rejuvenated with his power bat. The Red Sox were not that bad in 2017 and did manage some respectable offensive numbers despite a downward tick from a few players. Ramirez mist certainly will not hit .249 and drive in as many runs as Pedroia.

Speaking of Pedroia his average was over .300 until his knee wobbles lowered it to .293 by the end of the season. As a career .300 hitter expect that from Pedroia in 2018 when he is healthy. And Andrew Benintendi? Just how good can he be? Benny has bulked up and could be looking at a 30/30 season after a 20/20 rookie campaign. That is just a few. Expect them to feed off each other and be in the .280+ range.

This lineup has it all – metrics or eyeball they have contact, power, speed, OBP, and that will see the Red Sox back in the top three offensively in the American League. Expect the young players to move to the next level.

The offense will stall

Let me see about this Martinez? The 45 home runs look good, but the 119 games played do not. Martinez tends to miss time and don’t expect a magical change regarding that. With HanRam, if he squeezes in 497 plate appearances to kick in his option the Red Sox will need 22 million excuses to why that happened.

Pedroia is 34-years-old, has an injury history and will be about as mobile as a blind slug around second. The bat will follow, and we can witness the rapid decline of a Red Sox legend. That contract looks worse each season.

The young guys are risky to call. Is Mookie Betts going to be Mike Trout lite or Andrew McCutchen? XB did nothing and his bat looked as bad as his glove. Bradley hit just .245 and usually has a few prodigious slumps during the season. JBJ wants to steal more bases, but that requires getting on base.

Baseball today is the long ball and Boston finished last in the American League. Maybe Martinez will hit 70? The reality is this lineup does not scare anyone except manager Cora. They’ll have their collective moments but can’t compete with the real big boys.

CLEVELAND, OH – AUGUST 15: Closing pitcher Craig Kimbrel #46 of the Boston Red Sox celebrates after the final out against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field on August 15, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Red Sox defeated the Indians 3-2. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) /

Best bullpen in the AL!

The Red Sox had one of the best bullpens in the American League in 2017 and it will only get better – much better. Start with the end and at the end is Craig Kimbrel (5-0, 1.43). Is he the best in the league? Maybe the best in baseball history? But then you must get there.

There are two sides to an argument or debate and that is certainly true with everything about the Boston Red Sox. I have my own self-argument as the season starts.

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