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Red Sox: Four reasons that will determine a winning or losing season

By Rick McNair

BOSTON, MA - SEPTEMBER 26: Members of the Boston Red Sox stand for the national anthem before their game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Fenway Park on September 26, 2017 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
BOSTON, MA - SEPTEMBER 26: Members of the Boston Red Sox stand for the national anthem before their game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Fenway Park on September 26, 2017 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /
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HOUSTON, TX – OCTOBER 05: Chris Sale #41 of the Boston Red Sox throws a pitch in the first inning against the Houston Astros during game one of the American League Division Series at Minute Maid Park on October 5, 2017 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
HOUSTON, TX – OCTOBER 05: Chris Sale #41 of the Boston Red Sox throws a pitch in the first inning against the Houston Astros during game one of the American League Division Series at Minute Maid Park on October 5, 2017 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) /

The rotation is great!

Is this the best rotation in baseball? Two Cy Young Award winners and one that is a perennial second or third. David Price, Rick Porcello, and Chris Sale are all ace material. Then you have Drew Pomeranz at 17-6 and a rehabilitated Steven Wright who went 13-6 in an injury-marred 2016. And Eduardo Rodriguez is a potential middle to top of the rotation starter. Even Hector Velazquez looks ready to contribute spot starts.

The Red Sox rotation was ranked second in the American League (fWAR 17.0) and that was ahead of the Astros and Yankees.  That is a significant accomplishment considering the wasted season for Price and Wright and Porcello’s reverse of 2016.  Now all are back and reasonably healthy. By June this rotation will be as solid as any in recent Red Sox history.

The rotation is very questionable

You must be residing in a rose-colored vacuum not to realize this rotation appears like a visit to the orthopedic department at St. Elsewhere’s. Pick a body part?  Knee? Elbow?  Forearm? This staff has them all. And what is the over/under that more than one pitcher may be faced with the unmentionable pitching surgery? Already the MIA is two starters to begin the season. Not even outta the gate and they are down for the count!

The statistics in 2017 were bolstered by Sale’s typical season and Pomeranz having a season that defied metrics. Porcello? If J.D. Martinez hits as many home runs as Porcello gave up (38) he’ll be a bargain. Face it – Porcello’s 2016 was a career anomaly. And for support when all crumbles? Just think Velazquez and Brian Johnson.  I am sure the Yankees lineup is quivering with fear.

This rotation will be a reminder of just how fragile pitching can be. Just how long can you go with a series of five-innings or less each start? I expect Dombrowski to send out the pack mules and try to locate Sean O’Sullivan by August. Is Paul Byrd officially retired?

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