Red Sox Roundtable: Over/Under predictions for 2018 season
By Sean Penney
Hanley Ramirez – over/under 497 plate appearances.
Brandon – Over. Han-Ram is healthy and comfortable at the plate again…for now. We don’t really know what to expect for his batting average, but 30+ HR is very doable. I think because of that power, he’ll exceed 497 PA.
Rick – If the Red Sox manage to get him 497 PA”s someone needs to have a long talk with Dr. Phil. The only out from this bad contract is keeping it under the magical number.
Cole – Under. This one’s a pretty easy one in my opinion. Hanley is coming off a down year, is set to take the light end of a platoon, and has a vesting option of $22 million on the line that the Red Sox don’t want to touch with a 10 foot pole. The only way Hanley gets 497 plate appearances is if he’s mashing.
Josh – Under. He won’t even come close. He’s on the wrong side of his career, had a bad season last year, and has no clear role. Barring injury to Martinez or Moreland, Hanley’s role will be minimal.
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Bryson – Hanley will fall way short of the 497 plate appearances this year. The Red Sox have no incentive to let him hit that vesting option, mainly because Ramirez hasn’t performed since two years ago. If Ramirez starts off hot, then you can adjust his amount of games. But off the bat, I don’t see Hanley getting close to 450 plate appearances this year.
Stephen – Under. This will probably be Hanley’s last year in Boston. Hanley needs a WAR in the range of 3.0 or higher to live up to his $22 million value. He was close in 2016, but negative last year. I think he could potentially reach his 2016 level again, but doubtfully for two straight years.
Hunter – Ramirez may be the “starting” first baseman, but barring injuries to other players, this is a heavy under. Ramirez will be better than he was last year, which will help him get ABs, but Mitch Moreland can get scalding hot, and when that happens it’s going to be Ramirez on the receiving end of a benching on most occasions. This is bad news for fantasy owners, but great news for the Red Sox. They now have a situation where they shouldn’t be dealing with the massive slumps of the incredibly streaky Ramirez and Moreland.