Red Sox Roundtable: Over/Under predictions for 2018 season
The BoSox Injection staff debated five over/under projections about the Boston Red Sox as we approach Opening Day for the 2018 season.
Opening Day is less than a week away for the Boston Red Sox but there’s still time to make projections for the upcoming season.
Earlier this month I asked our BoSox Injection staff five key questions facing the Red Sox entering the 2018 season. Now I’m going back to our team with five more questions – with a twist.
Over or under? That’s what I’ve asked our writers to predict. I set a five projections for a Red Sox player or the team. They simply needed to state if the actual number will be over or under the bar set by the projection. Of course, we also want an explanation for each of their answers.
I found that many of our writers tended to be in agreement with each other, although not always for the same reasons. In most cases there was at least one willing to play Devil’s Advocate by going in the other direction.
Who disagrees on what and why? Let’s fine out!
J.D. Martinez – over/under 40 home runs.
Brandon Carusillo – Over. This may be a generous prediction for Martinez’s first season in a major market like Boston, but I think he’s going to thrive here. The Red Sox have an excellent lineup on paper, and that will provide plenty of protection for Martinez to produce. If he can block out Boston’s media, he should produce big numbers. Key word: If.
Rick McNair – Over on this one, but barely. Look for 42/110 and the rest of the order will get a jolt from having the return of a very big bat.
Cole Witaszek – Over. Martinez hit 45 homers in 119 games. Yes, Martinez played in some pretty good parks for right handed hitters, but Fenway’s a pretty solid hitters park for pull-happy righties and if he’s healthy he will have an extra 30 games to hit five fewer home runs. I’ll take that bet.
Josh Greenberg – Over. He should be able to pass this one comfortably if he’s healthy. He hit 45 in a shortened season last year, and will call a hitter’s park in Fenway home. The high-40s are reachable.
Bryson Gordon – I’m taking the over on this one. Martinez has been one of the best pure hitters in baseball for the last few years and he finally seems to be over his old foot injury. I expect him to play closer to 140 games this year and in that, he will hit around 42 home runs.
Stephen Coelho – Over. My projections have Martinez hitting 42 home runs this year. I doubt he’ll perform at the level he did at hitter friendly Chase Field, but DH, Fenway, and being in a good lineup should suit him well.
Hunter Noll – Under. I think Martinez is going to have a monster year, but more along the lines of Adrian Gonzalez‘s first year with the Red Sox. Martinez will hit more than 27 homers (I’m guessing in the 35 range), but will also rack up the doubles and post a fantastic OPS.
Eduardo Nunez – over/under 120 games played.
Brandon – Under. Yes Dustin Pedroia is coming off a serious injury and Xander Bogaerts can’t play 182 games. But do we expect Pedroia to be content with sitting often to preserve his knee? I don’t. Pedroia would rather be out there with one leg than sit and rest. Early in the season Pedroia will take some time off, but as the season progresses, I think he will play more often than people think. Bogaerts could take some time off, but he’s entering the year with a lot to prove. I highly doubt his agent will want Bogaerts on the bench too often, needing to bounce back in a big way for an upcoming payday. Nunez could certainly see time at third base, but he doesn’t grade as a stellar fielder at the hot corner, and the Red Sox may feel reluctant to place him there often. Hanley Ramirez and Mitch Moreland are already battling for at-bats between the two of them, so there’s limited opportunities for Nunez at first base.
Rick – Over if his knee holds up. There will also be the need for an extra body in the infield even when Pedroia returns. Devers or Bogaerts may need some down time or could grab some DH time. If the Red Sox say farewell to Jackie Bradley you could see some outfield games for Nunez. Now that will be a sight.
Cole – Under. Pedroia is still a better player at this stage in his career than Nunez. Even if Pedroia misses two months, I still think he will start the majority of games the rest of the season and it’s hard to see Bogaerts and Devers needing too many days off. If someone else gets hurt Nunez will likely hit 120 games, but otherwise I’d peg him closer to 100.
Josh – Under. Pedroia is still the man. His bat isn’t what it used to be, but his defense is still elite. Once he’s healthy, Pedroia will hold his post for as long as he remains healthy.
Bryson – I’m taking under on the 120 games. The Red Sox will also have Blake Swihart to play in the utility role, as well as Brock Holt. Nunez will get the most playing time among that trio, but I still have him pegged at 100 games or so for this year. At the price they got him, having him perform similarly to last year for 100 games would be a steal.
Stephen – I’m going with under, I think his knee injury could end up placing him on the 10 day DL at least once this year. However, If he hits like he did last August, Alex Cora will make sure he plays more than 120 games.
Hunter – I was stuck on this one for a while because Nunez’s own health could play a factor. I’m going to go with the over though. He’s going to get plenty of time filling in for Pedroia, and will be the primary space-filler whenever Bogaerts or Devers needs a break. Nunez will also see plenty of late-inning pinch-hit and pinch-run situations, which will give him some “cheap” games played.
David Price – over/under 3.50 ERA.
Brandon – Under. David Price will have a huge season for Boston. He’ll post somewhere between a 2.60-2.80 ERA, and it won’t even be the best from Boston’s starting rotation.
Rick – Under but just barely. I also expect Price to miss a few turns either via a minor injury or manager decision.
Cole – Under. Between 2012 and 2015, Price had a FIP under 3.00. Hes not that much older and, while he’s been sporadic in his time in Boston, he’s shown flashes of being the pitcher that earned a $200 million contract. Last year, Price posted an ERA of 3.38 while coming off an injury. I would expect Price to pitch better with a clean bill of health.
Josh – Under. I don’t really have a concrete basis for this, but he seems different this year. He was phenomenal in his postseason appearances in 2017, and seems devoted to proving himself again. Hitters should watch out for him.
Bryson – Price is going to have an ERA under 3.50 this year and I’d even expect him to keep it around 3.25. When healthy last year, Price was his dominant self. If you think Price will be healthy this year, there is no reason to think his pitching has declined. Price will be the second best pitcher for Boston and carry a 3.25 ERA for the year.
Stephen – Under. I’m projecting Price to win 16 games, with a 3.25 ERA. Price can still be one of the best pitchers in baseball, he’s been dealing with elbow pain for two years but now he is healthy. His contract has overshadowed the fact that he has still been one of the most valuable pitchers in the staff for the last two years. I think he’ll win over Boston fans this year.
Hunter – Under. The Price we saw in the playoffs last season was confident and utterly dominant. That’s who I expect in 2018. He’s been solid for the Red Sox, but due to the lofty expectations that came with his arrival, some fans like to think he’s been miserable. It’s to the point where he can’t win because some fans will always find something to nitpick. Price has a fantastic chance to shut up the haters this year though, and I feel his ERA will be closer to 3.00 than 3.50.
Hanley Ramirez – over/under 497 plate appearances.
Brandon – Over. Han-Ram is healthy and comfortable at the plate again…for now. We don’t really know what to expect for his batting average, but 30+ HR is very doable. I think because of that power, he’ll exceed 497 PA.
Rick – If the Red Sox manage to get him 497 PA”s someone needs to have a long talk with Dr. Phil. The only out from this bad contract is keeping it under the magical number.
Cole – Under. This one’s a pretty easy one in my opinion. Hanley is coming off a down year, is set to take the light end of a platoon, and has a vesting option of $22 million on the line that the Red Sox don’t want to touch with a 10 foot pole. The only way Hanley gets 497 plate appearances is if he’s mashing.
Josh – Under. He won’t even come close. He’s on the wrong side of his career, had a bad season last year, and has no clear role. Barring injury to Martinez or Moreland, Hanley’s role will be minimal.
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Bryson – Hanley will fall way short of the 497 plate appearances this year. The Red Sox have no incentive to let him hit that vesting option, mainly because Ramirez hasn’t performed since two years ago. If Ramirez starts off hot, then you can adjust his amount of games. But off the bat, I don’t see Hanley getting close to 450 plate appearances this year.
Stephen – Under. This will probably be Hanley’s last year in Boston. Hanley needs a WAR in the range of 3.0 or higher to live up to his $22 million value. He was close in 2016, but negative last year. I think he could potentially reach his 2016 level again, but doubtfully for two straight years.
Hunter – Ramirez may be the “starting” first baseman, but barring injuries to other players, this is a heavy under. Ramirez will be better than he was last year, which will help him get ABs, but Mitch Moreland can get scalding hot, and when that happens it’s going to be Ramirez on the receiving end of a benching on most occasions. This is bad news for fantasy owners, but great news for the Red Sox. They now have a situation where they shouldn’t be dealing with the massive slumps of the incredibly streaky Ramirez and Moreland.
Red Sox – over/under 93 wins.
Brandon – Over. They’ll battle with the Yankees all season long, but ultimately win the Wild Card. I’m not going to put an exact number on the total wins because you can never predict how good every single team will be, but the Red Sox will have an exceptional year. The Yankees and Astros are the only two teams who will have a slightly better record than the Red Sox in all of baseball.
Rick – This team will go over with an improved offense, a weaker division, more rotation consistency, a new manager with a new vision, a solid bullpen and some energized younger players thinking $5/100 down the road.
Cole – Over. This is largely the same team as last year, but with a full season of Price and Devers and the best bat on the market added to the mix. That’s before even taking into account that Bogaerts, Betts, Bradley, and Ramirez are all due for some positive regression to the mean. I believe this team will be in a dog fight with the Yankees for the division and I think both will win 95-100 games. It’s going to be a fun year in the AL East.
Josh – Over. They’ll win 95 and the division. Yes, the Yankees offense looks great, but they have a rookie manager and a suspect pitching staff. The Red Sox should have bounce-back years from their bigger bats and added Martinez. Plus, they can pitch with the best of them. They won the division last year despite down years and injuries from their best players. They’ll get there again.
Bryson – I’m taking the Red Sox to go over 93 wins and finish with 98 wins. This team has been on the cusp of something special for two years and we’ve thought they were a couple pieces away. Enter Martinez and Alex Cora. Cora will help get the most out of his players and Martinez will be the Red Sox best hitter. Boston will win the division by about 4-5 games, but fall just short in the ALCS to Houston.
Stephen – Over. The Red Sox are bringing back a 93 win team, except now with Martinez, a full year of Devers, and a healthy Price. I think the Red Sox win 94-96 games, but a game or two behind the Yankees. Obviously, Stanton is the most notable addition for the Yankees, but I think their bullpen is their biggest strength. They will be able to pull starters in the 4th or 5th inning and shut teams down. I also think Sonny Gray and Neil Walker will do damage against the Sox this year. Whatever happens, the rivalry will be back this year. I personally think it’s more fun when the Red Sox are the wild card team anyways!
Next: 10 reasons to be excited about the 2018 Red Sox
Do you agree with our writers? Let us know your own over/under predictions in the comments!