Red Sox: How to value players for fantasy baseball drafts
Boston Red Sox fans planning to join a fantasy baseball league this season will need to know how to value your favorite players in drafts.
As I prepare for the draft in my fantasy baseball league this weekend, I’m faced with the dilemma of how to value players from the Boston Red Sox.
Fantasy owners can feel compelled to draft players from their favorite team. Red Sox fans are already rooting for their team to win. If players from their fantasy team lead the way to victory then it’s a double dip of success. You will undoubtedly spend time watching your favorite team’s games more than other teams. Fantasy is simply more fun to follow when you have the opportunity to watch your players in action.
Rostering Red Sox players on your fantasy squad can make the season more exciting if you are a fan of the team. However, if you plan to win your league then you also have to be realistic about player values.
It’s ok to reach for a player you want to some extent. Fantasy rankings should never be taken as gospel and rarely agree completely from site to site. If the rankings you trust most say the player you want should be drafted at No. 30 but you have the No. 25 pick, don’t be afraid to grab him in that spot. He probably won’t be there the next time your turn rolls around.
Reaching for a certain player by a handful of spots won’t spoil your draft. Reaching by several rounds will. Dustin Pedroia may be your favorite player but if you draft him over Jose Altuve you won’t be taking home the trophy.
With that in mind, I’m going to outline the values of the fantasy relevant Red Sox players to provide a ballpark idea of where to target them in fantasy drafts. All projections are based on 12-team leagues with standard rules.
Early (1st or 2nd round)
Mookie Betts: This five-tool stud is the only Red Sox player I would consider in the first round of fantasy drafts. Betts posted a disappointing .264 batting average last year that was dragged down by fluky BABIP results. Expect that average to trend back toward the .300 mark. In what many considered a down year, Betts was still one of only eight hitters with 100+ runs and 100+ RBI. He was also one of nine players with 20+ home runs and 20+ steals. Betts will contribute in every category. If his power returns to the 30-homer level he showed in 2016, there’s a legitimate case to be made for Betts being the top fantasy hitter in baseball.
Chris Sale: The rising importance of bullpens has left us with fewer 200+ inning workhorses. A sub-3.00 ERA is more valuable for a pitcher that handles this workload than it is for a pitcher who only tosses 170 innings. You can find plenty of pitcher value in the middle rounds but if you want a reliable ace to anchor your staff then you’ll need to grab one in Round 2. Clayton Kershaw still gets the nod for the top pitcher on draft boards as long as he’s healthy. He may even go in the first round in some leagues. Sale belongs in the next tier with Max Scherzer and Corey Kluber.
J.D. Martinez: It’s easy to view the 45 home runs Martinez blasted last year as a reason to draft him among the top handful of hitters in fantasy. If a first-round pick is what it would take to land Martinez, he won’t end up on my team. Martinez provides elite production in four categories but won’t help at all in the stolen base category. He has also played in over 123 games only once in his career. Last year’s numbers were inflated by his time spent in Arizona. Fenway is a good hitter’s park but not on the same level as Chase Field.
Middle (3rd – 9th round)
Andrew Benintendi: A 20/20 rookie season provided a glimpse of Benny’s fantasy potential. He’s a threat to surpass those thresholds in both categories again. He’ll score more runs and drive in more RBI if he hits near the top of the lineup, as expected. Benintendi’s sweet swing is capable of delivering a better batting average than last year’s .271 mark. Don’t be shocked if he produces similar numbers to Betts, only he can be found two or three rounds later.
Xander Bogaerts: While he’s fallen out of the elite tier of what has become a fairly deep pool of shortstops, Bogaerts should be considered just outside the top-5 at his position. He was batting .308 on July 6 when he was hit on the hand by a fastball. The injury sunk his average and sapped his power. A healthy Bogaerts is capable of challenging for a batting title, swiping double-digit bases, and we saw him top 20 homers in 2016. Bogaerts could have early-round value if he ever puts all those traits together. He’s done it all before but never in the same season. That risk keeps him out of the conversation for the top shortstops but if he falls outside of the fifth round then his upside is worth it.
Rafael Devers: After smashing 10 home runs in only 58 games as a 20-year old rookie, Devers enters the season with 30-homer upside. That’s a lofty projection for a hitter his age, yet it may be warranted. Don’t be fooled into paying a high price expecting Devers to hit 30+ home runs. If you take him in Round 7 then he’ll provide a great return on investment if he does reach that projection. If he only hits 20-25 homers with a solid average and 90+ RBI, he’ll still hit value if you draft him in that range. Take him too early assuming he’ll hit 30 homers and you may wind up disappointed, while you’ll limit the value you receive from the pick even if he does get there.
Craig Kimbrel: My motto is typically “Don’t pay for Saves.” Closers provide minimal value in most categories due to their limited workload. Their value stems from the Saves category. Given the turnover at this volatile position, Saves can always be found on the waiver wire mid-season. That’s why I rarely pay up for a top closer. Kimbrel may be one of the few exceptions. Unlike many closers in the league, Kimbrel’s role is secure. He also provides ridiculous strikeout upside for a relief pitcher to go along with his minuscule ERA and WHIP numbers. Upgrade Kimbrel in leagues with an innings limit. He’s far more valuable if you view your staff in terms of K/9 instead of total strikeouts.
Late (Round 10 – 15)
David Price: A rocky start to his tenure in Boston combined with an injury-plagued 2017 season has taken the shine off Price. He’s no longer a pitcher you can trust will provide ace production yet he’s still capable of it. As bad as Price was for the first six weeks of 2016, he finished with a 3.39 ERA over his final 28 starts. He owns a 3.38 ERA over his last 261 1/3 innings spread across two seasons. His postseason brilliance out of the bullpen and a strong spring have proven he’s healthy. Price isn’t being drafted as a top-30 starter in most leagues but he’s capable of delivering top-10 production. He’s a risky bet in the middle rounds but if you can get him in Round 10 or later, Price has the potential to swing your fantasy season.
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Drew Pomeranz: The lefty tied for fifth in the majors with 17 wins and 13th with a 3.32 ERA last season. He’s capable of producing similar numbers with the motivation of a contract year. So why isn’t he being treated as a top-50 starter? Well, those are only two categories of the four that starting pitchers contribute to. Pomeranz ranked outside the top-40 among qualified starters with a 1.35 WHIP. His 173 2/3 innings last year was a career-high. He’s not a workhorse, capping his strikeout total and reducing the value of his ERA. He can still provide great value in the later rounds.
Jackie Bradley: His streaky nature can make Bradley a frustrating player to own but he does have upside. Don’t expect him to help your batting average, while his Run/RBI production will be limited if he’s buried at the bottom of the order. However, we’ve seen him reach 26 homers and he’s been given the green light on the base paths. His potential for a 20/20 season makes JBJ a good value late in drafts.
Deep leagues (Round 16 or later)
Rick Porcello: He’s been a disaster in two of the last three seasons, ruining the ERA and WHIP of anyone unfortunate enough to draft him. Sandwiched in between those duds was a Cy Young campaign. He won’t repeat his 2016 season but can’t be as horrible as what we saw last year. His lack of wins was partially due to a baffling amount of bad luck with run support which won’t be a problem with Boston’s upgraded lineup. He’s durable and piles up a decent amount of strikeouts. Worth a shot late in your draft to see if he can bounce back.
Hanley Ramirez: A shoulder injury hindered his swing last year but Ramirez produced 30-homers and 100+ RBI the previous season. He’s capable of returning to that type of hitter but his platoon role with Mitch Moreland will prevent him from getting the necessary playing time to accumulate those stats.
Eduardo Nunez: As the starting second baseman while Pedroia recovers from knee surgery, Nunez will provide value for at least the first month of the season. He can hit for average, steal bases and score runs. He also showed an uptick in home run power following the mid-season trade to Boston. Once Pedroia returns, Nunez will be relegated to a utility role. His sporadic playing time makes him a risk, although if he hits the way he did in the second half last year then the Red Sox will find a spot for him more often than not. His positional flexibility makes him an ideal candidate to stash on your bench. If you pay close attention to ensure he’ll be in the lineup, you’ll be able to pick your spots of when to plug in Nunez.
Next: Red Sox 2018 team MVP candidates
If you are intent on having some exposure to this roster, chances are you’ll be able to land at least one Red Sox player on draft day without having to overpay.