Red Sox Preview: Bold predictions for the 2018 season
In advance of the 2018 season, we’re making some bold predictions about the Boston Red Sox and how some of their players will produce.
A new season is on the horizon for the Boston Red Sox, making this the ideal time for everyone to roll out their predictions for how players will perform. Many fans have their own player projections but I want to stray from the path of conventional opinion. I want to be BOLD.
What is a bold prediction? Saying that Chris Sale will win the Cy Young isn’t bold. He was the runner-up last year and finished within the top-6 on the ballot in every season since 2012. We expect the Red Sox ace to be in the mix for the award.
At the other end of the spectrum, I’m not going to predict Blake Swihart as the MVP. Unless we’re talking MVP of the Grapefruit League. There’s no reasonable explanation for a fringe roster player to suddenly blossom into the league’s best player.
I want to be daring with my predictions while staying within the realm of possibility. The idea isn’t to throw out wacky projections that have no hope of coming true for the sake of being different. These predictions may not seem likely but there is at least a reasonable chance that it could happen.
With that in mind, here are my bold predictions for 2018.
The Red Sox will have three 20/20 outfielders
How it could happen:
Only nine major league hitters hit 20+ homers with 20+ steals last season. Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi were among that group, making them the only pair of teammates in the 20/20 club in 2017. Could they add a third member this year?
We can’t assume Betts and Benny will reach those marks again this year but it would surprise no one if they both improved upon last year’s totals. That would leave only a career year from Jackie Bradley to make it a trio of Red Sox outfielders in the club.
Bradley is coming off a down season but he flashed his potential for mid-20’s home run power the previous year. He has yet to reach double-digit steals in a season. However, he boasts an elite 85.7 percent career success rate. Bradley also confirmed that manager Alex Cora has given him the green light on the base paths. We should expect Bradley to make a run at 20+ stolen bases. If his power bounces back to 2016 levels then he could be the next 20/20 player on this roster.
Don’t rule out Eduardo Nunez entering that conversation as well. He’s primarily a utility infielder but has some limited experience in the outfield. If he makes an appearance at any outfield position this year then he’d qualify for this prediction.
Nunez stole 24 bases last year and 40 the previous season. The steals portion of the projection should be no problem if he’s given sufficient playing time. Nunez’ career high of 16 home runs has been suppressed by limited playing time and the ballparks he’s primarily played in. He blasted eight homers in only 38 games after he came to Boston last season. His playing time may be questionable but if he approaches 500 plate appearances then Nunez has a shot to be a 20/20 guy this year.
Xander Bogaerts will win the AL batting title
How it could happen:
This would be quite a jump for a player who hit a mere .273 last season, yet that player we saw in 2017 wasn’t the real Bogaerts. Not based on the end result, anyway.
Bogaerts began the season hot, producing a lofty batting average above .330 heading into June that put him squarely in the batting title race. His average hovered comfortably over the .300 mark as the All-Star break approached before an injury derailed his season.
Bogaerts was hit on the hand by a pitch on July 6. He entered that game hitting .308, only to see that average take a nosedive following the injury. By his own admission, Bogaerts should have taken some time off to let the injury heal. Playing through the hand issue caused a productive season to crater.
Bogaerts should enter this season healthy, allowing him to return to being the hitter he was before he was struck on the hand. We’ve seen him finish as the runner-up for the batting title when he hit .320 in 2015. Bogaerts has the ability to return to that level.
Winning a batting title means topping Jose Altuve, who has won the award in three of the last four years. That’s a tall task but not impossible if Bogaerts can return to his 2015 level. His .320 average put him just ahead of Altuve’s .313 that year. Altuve still collected 200 hits and won a Silver Slugger, so it’s not as if we have to expect a collapse for the 2017 MVP in order for Bogaerts to compete with him.
David Price finishes top-five in Cy Young voting
How it could happen:
Red Sox fans have been quick to label Price a bust two years into his massive $217 million deal. While he hasn’t lived up to his salary, Price’s issues are a bit overblown.
The 3.99 ERA he posted in his first year with the Red Sox would make many pitchers envious. For Price, it was a huge letdown coming off a season in which he led the league with a 2.45 ERA to finish second on the Cy Young ballot.
Was his 2016 season really that bad? He still won 17 games and led the league in innings pitched. A rocky start while Price acclimated to his new environment stained his season numbers. He was shelled for 5+ runs in four of his first seven starts. He followed that by losing three consecutive games in June despite producing a quality start in each, with at least seven innings and no more than three runs allowed. That left him with an 8-4 record and 4.52 ERA in mid-June, creating a perception of futility that he never overcame.
Dig deeper and we find that Price did turn things around. He went 13-8 with a 3.39 ERA from mid-May through the end of the regular season. Those figures aren’t far off from his career rates. He was among the elite pitchers for most of the season, we just didn’t notice because of the hole he dug himself into.
Price entered last season with a troubling elbow issue. He wouldn’t debut until the end of May. He went 5-3 with a 3.82 ERA in 11 starts before he was shut down again. Those aren’t ace-caliber numbers, although that can at least partially be chalked up to the elbow injury.
A September return out of the bullpen proved Price’s velocity was back and he regained his masterful control over each of his pitches. He didn’t allow a run over 8 2/3 innings to wrap up the regular season. Price followed that by erasing his postseason demons by tossing 6 2/3 scoreless innings in the ALDS.
If that success as a reliever translates to his return to the rotation then Price should bounce back to being one of the league’s top pitchers.
J.D. Martinez hits fewer than 30 home runs
How it could happen:
Wait, so the guy the Red Sox specifically signed to be a home run threat won’t hit at least 30??
Martinez smashed 45 homers last year. 29 of those came following a mid-season trade that sent him to the Arizona Diamondbacks. So, this prediction assumes he won’t top what he did in only 62 games in the desert.
He probably will, it’s just not as much of a lock as many assume. His staggering total from last season stands out but keep in mind it was only the second time in his seven-year career that Martinez topped 30 homers. His previous high of 38 was set in 2015 when he also managed to appear in a career-high 158 games. Injuries limited him to 120 games the following year and his home run production fell to 22.
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Martinez has only topped 123 games once in his career. Granted, he was only a part-time player for three years in Houston before breaking out in 2014 with the Detroit Tigers. However, he’s dealt with his fair share of injuries. If he’s limited to around 120 games again this year then his home run total will suffer even if he’s still performing at an elite level.
The limited playing time didn’t hold Martinez back last year, although that had much to do with his environment. Fenway is a hitter-friendly park but it rated as one of the worst for home runs last year, per ESPN’s Park Factors. Martinez did most of his damage last year in Arizona’s Chase Field, which rated fourth in the majors for home runs. He was on pace for around 30 home runs in Detroit (ranked 8th for home runs), only to burst out with an epic finish after moving to a better ballpark.
Martinez remains an elite power hitter but we should temper expectations. Sure, he could top 30 if he stays healthy. Just don’t bank on a repeat of last year. If he does fall short with only 29 home runs, that’s still more than any Red Sox hitter produced last year. It would have put him on the outskirts of the top-20 in the league during a season in which we saw home run totals rise to historic levels.
Adding Martinez gives the Red Sox lineup a significant power boost. He’s a great hitter that can still be a star even if he’s not challenging for the league-lead in home runs.
Brock Holt will be released
How it could happen:
This is a tough one given that the Brock Star has become a fan-favorite. It may not happen by Opening Day but a plausible scenario exists where Holt gets designated for assignment during the season.
It’s been quite a fall from grace for the 2015 All-Star. Holt took a step back at the plate the following year before falling off a cliff last season. He hit .200 with a .548 OPS in 64 games.
Holt suffered from vertigo and concussion symptoms last year. His dismal production can be partially explained by attempting to play through those issues. He’s capable of bouncing back but he has a lot to prove to warrant a spot on this roster.
The re-signing of Nunez will cut into Holt’s playing time. He’s a better hitter than Holt was in his best days. Deven Marrero provides a vastly superior glove at multiple infield positions. When Marco Hernandez returns from a shoulder injury he’ll provide another suitable utility option, while Tzu-Wei Lin lurks in Triple-A waiting for his chance.
Holt is capable outfielder but he won’t displace any of the starters on a regular basis. Martinez would jump at the chance to ditch the DH role to take over a corner outfield spot if an injury were to sideline one of Boston’s starting trio. Swihart can also play the outfield.
Holt’s value stems from his versatility but that skillset is negated by Boston’s depth. A decent batting average with very little power is Holt’s ceiling. That’s no longer enough to warrant a roster spot.
The $2.225 million Holt is owed in 2018 won’t count toward the luxury tax if he’s released before the season. Boston could save some money and create breathing room under the steepest tier of tax penalties by moving on from Holt. That extra wiggle room could prove useful if the team needs to make a deadline deal to load up for the stretch run.
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Holt has a minor league option remaining but at this point in his career, it would be an insult to send him back to Pawtucket. They would be doing him a favor by releasing him to allow him to try to latch on with another team that can offer a secure role.