Red Sox Roundtable: Five questions about the Opening Day roster
The BoSox Injection staff debates five key questions regarding the makeup of the Boston Red Sox roster as we approach Opening Day.
The Opening Day roster for the Boston Red Sox isn’t set in stone yet. There are still a few roster battles that need to be sorted out over these last weeks of spring training.
The back end of the starting rotation, the bullpen, the bench and the batting order are among the unsettled topics of debate. New Red Sox manager Alex Cora has his work cut out for him sorting out the various options at his disposal. Depth is a vital aspect of any winning team but it can often lead to some tough decisions.
The BoSox Injection staff collaborated on a roundtable discussion to address the lingering roster decisions. I asked our team five questions pertaining to players on the fringe of making the roster and the role of those without a secured everyday spot.
As you’ll see, not all of us share the same opinion on these topics. The manager’s job certainly isn’t easy! Here’s what our staff had to say.
What do the Red Sox do with Blake Swihart – make him the backup catcher, a utility player or trade him?
Brandon Carusillo: They need to trade Swihart. They’ve already stunted his growth multiple times, and misused him to the point where he suffered a season-ending ankle injury. At some point as an organization you owe it to a player to let him get his opportunity somewhere else. Swihart will never be the fielder Christian Vazquez is. Vazquez continues to improve offensively each year, negating the need for Swihart’s bat in the lineup. His hot spring has shown what he can do when healthy, but not enough to cut ties with Vazquez and Sandy Leon, two guys who have proven they can hit Major League pitching over the course of a full season. Swihart is facing pitchers like Dietrich Enns, Gabriel Ynoa, Jose Mesa, Johnny Hellweg, Charlie Morton and Chih-Wei Hu. None of those scream big-league competition. The Red Sox let Josh Reddick have a chance elsewhere, it’s time to do the same for Blake Swihart.
Rick McNair: Hold with the idea of selling. Swihart appears healthy and his .407 in the Winter League and spring training is an indication. His outfield ability is questionable so as a defensive replacement that is a risk.
Jake Sauberman: I think you have to start Swihart in a utility role where he would primarily serve as a backup OF. With his hot spring and potential, there’s no way you could justify dropping him altogether, especially with no viable backup OF option. Then by June, if Swihart is raking and Leon is struggling, you weigh making him the backup catcher where his bat would be most valuable.
Josh Greenberg: Swihart hasn’t shown much ability as a catcher, thought admittedly he hasn’t had much of a chance to develop. His lack of a position and unproven bat leave him with little trade value at the moment. He has to start the year in a utility role. Injuries and his performance by the trade deadline will determine his long-term future.
Hunter Noll: I want Swihart as the backup catcher. His offensive potential is still high and his athleticism is off the charts for the catcher position. With that being said, I have a nasty feeling that’s not going to happen. He’ll either be given a utility role or given to the highest bidder. A trade seems more likely now with such a hot start to Spring as his value is rising again.
Bryson Gordon: Having Swihart as the backup catcher is the best role for him right now. His stats at the major league level were very solid until his injury and since then he has not been the same. Putting him behind Vazquez and allowing him every opportunity to win the starting job would be fair. They haven’t given him a fair shake yet and so far this spring he is showing that he deserves one.
Stephen Coelho: While I am not opposed to the idea of trading Swihart, I think the market for someone like him would be poor right now. Most teams don’t have needs this early in the year, and Swihart’s trade value could increase if he continues to hit as well as he has during spring training. For Opening Day, Swihart will probably be a utility/third catcher. The Red Sox need to give Swihart plenty of opportunities while Pedroia rehabs, which will make his role more clear. If he performs well, I could envision Leon being the odd man out when Pedroia returns. The performance of Leon, Marrero, and even Vazquez will also impact Swihart’s role. However, the attrition of baseball could make figuring this out much easier.
When all options are healthy, which pitcher is the best option to fill the No. 5 spot in the rotation?
Brandon: It has to be Eduardo Rodriguez. He’s the only one who has shown the most consistency out of the pack. Steven Wright‘s stretch two season ago was a bit of a farse, and since then, his production has been like an uncontrollable roller coaster. Brian Johnson has shown potential, but has yet to produce for even half a season in the big leagues.
Rick: Johnson and Hector Velazquez appear the best, but Johnson’s BB/9 can be scary. I like Velazquez who did well in limited action and was outstanding at AAA. Being a righty in a lefty-heavy rotation helps.
Jake: The answer is definitely Rodriguez. In fact, when healthy I would slot him in at No. 4 over Rick Porcello. I still believe that Rodriguez can give a 3.70 ERA with 9.0 K/9, which would make for one of the most dominant back-of-rotation arms in the game.
Josh: If Wright pitches like he did in 2016, it’ll be hard to keep him out of the rotation. But I think the fifth spot will go to Rodriguez. His potential is insane and he finally put it together last season when he wasn’t hurt. Wright has a ton of value as a reliever, and Johnson will be a good long man and spot starter.
Hunter: I’ve been a Wright guy since day one because I love me some knuckleball. At the same time, I really believe in Velazquez as a Major League pitcher. I advocated heavily last year for him, and was happy to see he pitched well when given a shot. It has to be Rodriguez though. When healthy, Rodriguez has legitimate “ace” stuff and could not only be a good fifth starter, but has All-Star potential.
Bryson: Rodriguez is the guy for me when he is healthy. He has battled knee issues for a while now and when he has been fully healthy he has shown he has the stuff to be a top of the rotation guy. Even on a bum knee last year he was a very serviceable pitcher. He is younger than Wright and also fits into the future plans of this team more than Wright does. With time, Rodriguez can be a guy who can be in the top half of the Red Sox rotation for a while.
Stephen: Rodriguez has to be the No. 5 starter. He is one of the most valuable assets the Red Sox have. He has tremendous upside and is controlled until 2022. However, I disagree about slotting Rick Porcello behind a healthy E-Rod. Porcello won a Cy Young in 2016 for a reason. He should have his control back in 2018, and could easily return to form. While positive regression isn’t guaranteed, the Red Sox need to send a message that Porcello, Price, and Sale are all ace caliber pitchers. Pitching rotations shouldn’t always be constructed linearly, or in a best to worst format. Porcello and Sale were the only Red Sox pitchers with over 200 IP last year. Their ability to pitch deep into games was critical for keeping the bullpen fresh. Putting the two back to back could unnecessarily create a pattern of high rest and high use on the bullpen. Price, Pomeranz, Rodriguez, and Wright are all recovering from injuries and will need to be somewhat limited early in the year.
Has Brock Holt become expendable?
Brandon: Holt is a great clubhouse guy, but his shine as a player has worn since he dealt with vertigo. Eduardo Nunez, Blake Swihart, Deven Marrero, Tzu-Wei Lin and Marco Hernandez are all options that should be considered over Holt for various reasons. Holt has a Minor League option available, but I’m not sure how well he would take a demotion at this point in his career. I think Nunez, Marrero and Swihart are the best options for this team moving forward, but I’m unsure if it’s realistic given Swihart’s situation.
Rick: Holt may never really recover 100% from vertigo that is probably related to a concussion or more than one. Seems a lot like what Corey Koskie went through and retired. With Lin and eventually Hernandez the Red Sox have some strength in that area.
Jake: Yes, Holt has to prove that his awful 2017 was a fluke. However, right now it seems like his hot streaks were just that and not indicative of a very valuable player long term. There’s too many utility options with Nunez, Hernandez, Swihart, Marrero and Lin for Holt’s job to be considered safe.
Josh: I’m not sure Holt has any value left. His bat was atrocious last season, and his defense has never been anything special. Nunez is a much better super-utility option once Pedroia is healthy. Holt could be gone at that point.
Hunter: I still think there’s a place for Holt on this Red Sox team. The vertigo clearly played a role in his numbers last season, but it’s still not easy to shake off that ugly slash line. Boston now has so many utility guys that a super-utility isn’t as necessary. Marrero and Hernandez both cover multiple positions in the infield. Then there’s Lin, who can play both infield and outfield. Even Swihart is a dark-horse utility guy if they’re serious about learning first and second base, with the added bonus of catching. Holt can definitely still be a key member of the Red Sox, but he might be fighting too many other players off to survive.
Bryson: Unfortunately, he has. Now the situation becomes very different if we get the Holt of a few years ago, but that does not seem likely. Marrero has a better glove than Holt and is also cheaper. Nunez, while more expensive, provides a much better bat than Holt does at the moment. Nunez can also play the outfield like Holt can and even did it in San Francisco. Trading Holt would be the best thing to do right now, mainly because that could give the Red Sox the chance at a trade deadline deal for a cheap reliever that won’t break the bank. His salary is not huge, but it does keep the Red Sox right around the line of the harshest luxury tax penalties.
Stephen: Holt’s value comes with his versatility. With the acquisition of Nunez and the performance of Swihart, the need for his versatility is lower than normal. That being said, he still has minor league options, so getting rid of him would be pointless. A Major League season will test the depth of any team, and the need for Holt may suddenly emerge. To me, a player is only expendable when their team is better off without them. Holt won’t be on the Opening Day roster, but I still don’t consider him expendable.
Will the Red Sox open the season with more than one lefty in the bullpen?
Brandon: I think the Red Sox could make a move at the trade deadline for a veteran lefty. Robby Scott still scares me, no matter what stat you throw at me. Could Brian Johnson be an option? Maybe Jalen Beeks? At this point, the left handed reliever situation for Boston is a black hole that should be avoided as much as possible until Dave Dombrowski finds a deal out there. Keep an eye out for a deal involving Swihart in exchange for a reliable lefty.
Rick: If you sacrifice a dependable righty just for the sake of having a questionable lefty you dig a pitching grave. Just think Fernando Abad.
Jake: While I’m not entirely comfortable with it, I think Robby Scott will open as the lone lefty in the bullpen. The righty options in the pen can also get out lefties to a good degree, so I don’t think it will be too much of an issue, but it seems like a lot of pressure to put on Scott. Look out for Bobby Poyner, who had a strong season in the minors and looks great this spring, as a possible mid-season call-up.
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Josh: I’m comfortable with Robby Scott as the lone lefty. If the Red Sox bullpen can avoid injury, then it will be packed with talent, and with guys who work well against lefties and righties. I just don’t really see the need for an extra specialist this season.
Hunter: I believe Roenis Elias or Johnson will go into the season as an extra left-handed bullpen arm. How long they last there comes into question when other pitchers starting returning from injury though.
Bryson: Yes, they will, but it will be an inside arm as opposed to an outside arm Scott is going to make the roster no matter how bad he pitches this spring. After that, I believe that Elias has a great shot at cracking the roster, but he will have to fight with Johnson, who does not have any options left. Johnson will likely make the roster whether it is the fifth starting spot, or a reliever arm. But when everybody is healthy, Johnson will be in the bullpen for the Red Sox.
Stephen: I was hoping the Red Sox were going to acquire Tony Watson, but making J.D. the priority was obviously the right move. Also, I think Johnson could end up being a long reliever/ specialist this year. I would avoid using him in high leverage situations though.
List your ideal batting order for the top four hitters in the lineup.
Brandon: To me, Rafael Devers is one of the best bats the Red Sox have, but shouldn’t be rushed into the top half of the lineup so early in his career. Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts and others have struggled at times dealing with the pressure of batting highly in the order. I also think Bogaerts has more success when he’s not pressured to produce huge numbers in the first half of the batting order. If I had to pick the order I’d go: Dustin Pedroia/Eduardo Nunez, Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez.
Rick: Nunez, Benintendi, Betts, Martinez to start out April. Nunez is a strange one for me to put there with only six walks and a 3.79 PPA, but he makes contact and had the highest RC27 (6.82) on the team.
Jake: I’m a firm believer in your best player batting second, and I’ve come around on batting J.D. Martinez cleanup instead of third. So it would be Benintendi, Betts, Devers, Martinez.
Josh: My ideal top four for the batting order would look something like this: Eduardo Nunez, Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez.
Hunter: Mookie Betts – Andrew Benintendi – Hanley Ramirez – J.D. Martinez to start. Once the season gets rolling and the Red Sox are sure Rafael Devers is comfortable I want a massive move though. I’m think a Betts/Benintendi/Martinez/Devers front four would be absolutely deadly. Then you can put Ramirez behind Devers to protect him as well.
Bryson: Ideally it is Betts-Benintendi-Bogaerts-Martinez. Alex Cora has already said that Ramirez will bat third, but having Bogaerts in the top half of the lineup would be a wise choice. Betts should be locked into the top spot and Benintendi is the guy for two. Having Martinez bat cleanup with those two guys ahead of him will give him tons of opportunities with guys on base. You can protect Martinez with Devers, who in my opinion is going to be a 25 home run hitter in his own right this season. You can move Ramirez to the bottom half to let him see better pitches and if he responds to that, you can make adjustments from there.
Stephen: I like Betts, Bogaerts, Benintendi, and Martinez to start the year. Once Pedroia is back, he can replace Bogaerts in the No. 2 spot. Pedroia gets on base reliably and needs to stay in the top of the order. I also think the Red Sox need to be more consistent with their lineups than in the past, having a solidified lead-off and cleanup hitter we’ll help them do that.
Next: Three player predictions for 2018
Which of our writers do you agree with on these topics? Do you have a different opinion? Let us know!