Red Sox have solid starting rotation depth to cover for injuries
Drew Pomeranz was diagnosed with a mild flexor strain. With this in mind, let’s review the first lines of defense for the Boston Red Sox rotation.
If all breaks well, the Boston Red Sox could easily have the best rotation in baseball. Chris Sale is a bona fide ace and David Price has number one upside. Drew Pomeranz pitched very well this past season, Rick Porcello is a year removed from a Cy Young campaign, and Eduardo Rodriguez could be poised to break out.
Of course, that is the optimistic view of Boston’s rotation. Chris Sale is Chris Sale, but everyone else comes with their share of question marks.
Price battled injuries and under-performance throughout his two years in Boston. Porcello was a bad pitcher two out of the last three years. As it stands, Rodriguez is battling a knee injury and does not look likely to start the season with the Red Sox. And now we have news that might mean Pomeranz could miss some time to start the season. The man most likely to take a rotation spot would be Steven Wright, except he too is coming back from a knee injury.
Between these injuries and the fragility of the Boston’s rotation outlined above, one could easily imagine that the 6th, 7th, and 8th guys on the depth chart could play a pivotal role for Boston’s pitching staff. So let’s reacquaint ourselves with the starting pitching safety nets on the roster.
Steven Wright
As I mentioned above, Wright is probably still the 6th man in this rotation. Wright was acquired all the way back in 2012 in a trade that sent old friend Lars Anderson to Cleveland. Wright started a mere five games last year, most of which went poorly for the knuckleballer, before undergoing season-ending knee surgery in May.
All told, Wright threw 24 innings and posted an ERA over eight. However, it is worth noting that Wright only pitched in April last season; April has the lowest average humidity of any month in the season and knuckleballs move better in humid weather. Perhaps Wright would be more effective through the dog days of summer.
It’s also important to remember that Wright was an All-Star just a year earlier. In 2016, Wright posted a 3.33 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 156.2 innings. Most pundits would probably agree that Wright pitched over his head in 2016, as is backed up by his peripherals; however knuckleballers are a weird bunch and peripherals may be less meaningful than in most pitcher evaluations.
Wright has his share of question marks and concerns, along with the baggage of a domestic abuse case, but he has a higher ceiling than most 6th starters around the league.
Brian Johnson
The next spot in on the depth chart is a little more debatable. One could make a case that Roenis Elias could slot in below Wright, but given that Elias has options left and has pitched in all of eight big league innings since 2015, I’m inclined to go with Brian Johnson.
At 27, Johnson’s days as a legitimate prospect are far behind him. He’s your classic depth starter. He throws strikes, doesn’t have great stuff, and posts fairly mediocre results. He had a little bit of success last year at the big league level in 27 innings and had a good year in Triple-A.
That said, his xFIP at both levels was significantly above four and that meshes pretty well with the scouting reports on the southpaw. Johnson’s a pretty good bet to eat some innings and not get shelled most of the time. In a pinch, he’s a serviceable enough starter, but I wouldn’t be too comfortable if he was anywhere higher on the depth chart.
With the current state of the rotation, there’s a good chance we will get another look at Johnson in Boston to start the season. A hot start could move him up the pecking order or even build enough trade value to find himself a spot in the backend of another rotation.
Roenis Elias
Two years ago I was very happy about the inclusion of Roenis Elias in the trade the sent Wade Miley to Seattle and Carson Smith to Boston. At the time, Elias looked a lot like a young Wade Miley himself. Both were southpaws who had middling stuff but managed to get outs and eat innings with relative consistency.
Since that trade, Miley fell off a cliff and neither Smith or Elias have amassed 10 innings in Boston. Still, it’s worth remembering that in Seattle Elias was an okay starter for two years and the peripherals back up the notion that he could at least be an average pitcher.
Over 279 innings Elias owned a FIP of 4.23 and 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings. His walk rate was a bit higher than you’d like, hovering in the mid-threes, but that performance would be more than welcome this far down the depth chart.
With options remaining on his contract, he’d have to blow away the field to get a shot before Wright and Johnson. However, Elias has the ceiling of at least a backend starter and if multiple pitchers go down, the Red Sox have an in-house option better than most teams plan D’s.
Hector Velazquez
Hector Velazquez is a bit of a wildcard here. Until this past year, Velazquez had only pitched in the Mexican League. He started his first season with the organization in Pawtucket; in his stint in Rhode Island, the 28-year-old righthander enjoyed a highly successful season, evidenced by a 2.21 ERA.
This success continued throughout a brief run with the Major League club in which Velazquez maintained an ERA under three for 24.2 innings. But scratching a bit below the surface reveals that much of this success might have been a mirage.
To start, Velazquez had a BABIP hovering around .250 at both levels. As is well evidenced, pitchers have very little control over BABIP year-to-year, signaling that regression to the mean is likely. This is coupled with a LOB% that toppled 80% and a strikeout rate that dipped below seven K’s per nine both in Boston and Pawtucket.
Velazquez’s ability to make the big league club is also hampered by the fact that he has two options remaining. Unless their hand is forced, the Red Sox seem unlikely to give Velazquez a shot before any of the above options. But if Velazquez tears up Triple-A again and if the Red Sox scouts think he’s the type of pitcher that might outperform his peripherals, perhaps he will see significant time with the club later in the season.
The Takeaway
The top of the Red Sox’s rotation has the potential to be devastating and, hopefully, everything above is rendered moot. However, of those five starters, two are hurt, two more are injury risks, and one (Porcello) could pitch his way out of the rotation.
If Pomeranz misses more time than we expect, two of these pitchers may find themselves in the big leagues in April. While this is of course far from ideal, the Red Sox may find themselves better equipped for this situation than most teams.
The depth options aren’t sexy, but that’s why they are depth options. None of these pitchers are likely to find themselves in an All-Star game, despite Wright’s recent appearance, but they will keep the Red Sox within striking distance most games.
Despite the lack of standouts, the rotation depth here is at least as solid as it needs to be and all four of these pitchers have the potential to be serviceable starters. The most interesting player on a roster is never the seventh starter, but in a 162 game season depth often separates the wheat from the chaff.
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Get familiar with these names because it’s highly likely that at least some of them will play a pivotal role in Boston’s success.