Red Sox: Battle for the fifth rotation spot down to three candidates
The most exciting spring competition could be for the Red Sox fifth rotation spot. Eduardo Rodriguez, Brian Johnson, and Steven Wright all have a chance.
The beginning is always the hardest part of doing anything. Right now, the Boston Red Sox are still in the beginning stages of figuring out who they will be this season. Largely, their still the team that won the division last year. Thanks to a couple new faces, they have the potential to be so much more.
Locking down the rotation is always a part of the process of a team’s self-discovery. Unlike past seasons, the 2018 rotation was just about set as Spring Training opened. Chris Sale, David Price, Drew Pomeranz, and Rick Porcello, assuming he can recover from a dismal 2017, should control the first four slots.
That leaves a three-man race for the fifth spot. Eduardo Rodriguez, Brian Johnson, and Steven Wright will compete this spring for the job, with the runners-up likely heading to the bullpen.
Let’s break down the three options vying for the last rotation spot to predict which of these pitchers will lock up that role when all of them are healthy.
The Favorite
Rodriguez could have a leg up on his competition because he held a rotation spot last season and because of his pure potential, which he seemed close to finally harnessing in the latter portion of the campaign. Injuries derailed a promising start to his year, but he got his mojo back in August and September. He’s now recovering from knee surgery but appears to be on track to rejoin the team at some point in the first half of the season.
At his healthy points, Rodriguez pitched as well as anyone last year. He put up a 2.70 ERA in March and April, and a 2.81 ERA in May. That streak of quality pitching spanned 55.1 innings, and then June rolled around. Thanks to a slip while warming up, E-Rod pitched just 20.1 innings in June and July, and didn’t come away with much to show for it. In August, he began to find himself again and then turned in a 3.33 ERA in 27 September innings. If he’s healthy and can continue that positive trend, it might make the most sense to give him a shot in the rotation.
Still, the bullpen might suit Rodriguez. He’s logged just one inning of relief work in the majors, which isn’t useful for predicting anything. Yet, if it’s an issue of health, the bullpen would limit the wear and tear. Even if it’s not, he might succeed as a long reliever. He’s never been an innings eater, even at his best. Removing the pressure of going deep into games could help him. Then again, it might not.
Per Fangraphs, Rodriguez is at his best his first time through a batting order. He’s picked up a 3.68 ERA his first time through, a 4.41 his second time through, and a 4.88 his third time through. The bullpen wouldn’t really help him avoid his initial troubles, though it would keep him from him his bitter endings. Plus, he’s historically been better in lower-leverage situations. All-in-all, while Rodriguez could pitch effectively out of the ‘pen, a move there wouldn’t really benefit him. A place in the rotation still represents his best chance for success.
The Underdog
The darkhorse in the race might be Johnson, but don’t sleep on him. Whatever his role with the team ends up being, he’ll be an important contributor. As a spot starter last year, Johnson gave the Red Sox quality innings in key moments. Without him, the injury-ravaged rotation might not have held up as well as it did. He’s willing and ready to do whatever the team asks of him. As the fifth starter or a long reliever, he’ll have tremendous value this year.
Johnson is certainly the good-will candidate. He’s earned the respect of the fans and the organization because of his willingness to travel back and forth between the majors and minors. No matter the result, it somehow always seemed clear that he put his heart into each start.
Johnson has no experience as a reliever, whether in the minors or the majors, so judging his chances for success in that role presents a challenge. Fangraphs indicates that he’s better in lower-leverage spots, and he also seems to get better as the season gets older.
He’s also about as successful against lefties as he is against righties. Johnson’s work as a spot starter could indicate he’s a good candidate to work in long relief, but there’s no indication the bullpen would protect him from the things he struggles with as a starter. He’s not the obvious choice to take the fifth rotation spot, but he’s also not the best candidate to join the ‘pen.
The Comeback
Logically, Wright would seem to make the most sense as a ‘pen option. Unlike the other two, he has experience in that role and proved effective. Having a knuckleballer available for relief could be a huge advantage late in games when the Red Sox need to throw opponents off. We know, from his work as a starter and because he throws the soft stuff, that Wright can go multiple innings and would be perfect as a long reliever. If his health is still an issue, the bullpen could protect him over the long season.
More from Red Sox News
- 10 grievances against the Boston Red Sox in honor of Seinfeld holiday Festivus
- Red Sox risk repeating rookie mistake with Eric Hosmer release
- Former MLB All-Star slams Red Sox for ’embarrassing’ treatment of Rafael Devers
- Red Sox invited group of players you’ve probably never heard of to Spring Training
- Jeter Downs’ official departure will continue to haunt Red Sox
Wright has logged far more time as a starter than as a reliever, but Fangraphs shows his stats in either role are about equal. The kicker is that he puts up his best numbers when the pressure is on. Opponents hit .246 and .260 against him in low and medium-leverage situations, and just .229 in high-leverage situations.
He also gets significantly worse as opponents see him more. In his first and second trips through opposing lineups, he owns career 3.92 and 2.56 ERAs, respectively. In the third go-around, he’s put up an ugly 5.55 ERA. His numbers indicate that the bullpen could not only protect him from the situations that hurt him most but also place him in those that play to his strengths.
Still, the prospect of a healthy Wright in the rotation has its allure. We saw what he’s capable of in his improbable 2016 campaign. His one-two punch of the knuckler and blistering (relatively speaking) fastball set opponents spinning like so many tops. If he can find that magic again, Johnson and Rodriguez would have to be stellar to keep him out of the rotation.
The decision turns, more likely than not, on Wright’s health. A freak shoulder injury suffered while running the bases effectively sort him the last two months of 2016, and a knee injury stole 2017 from him.
Wright has since been involved in a domestic incident with his wife, to which the police were called. That sort of conduct, no matter how minor, cannot be excused, but Wright and his wife are working through it together.
The point is, right now, Steven could use a shot at redemption on the field. If he brings that motivation to his spring opportunities, he’ll be the fifth starter.
Next: Predictions for biggest roster battles of spring training
Whatever the result, this will be an exciting competition to watch this spring. Rodriguez will probably walk away with the job, at least initially, but either Johnson or Wright could push him. That, in turn, should make all three better. One thing is certain: the Red Sox rotational depth is an obvious strength at this point.