Red Sox: Predictions for biggest roster battles of spring training
Spring training is officially underway, but with that comes roster battles. Who has the upper hand at the biggest positions?
The Boston Red Sox kicked off their spring training schedule last Thursday, hosting their annual split squad scrimmage with Northeastern and Boston College. The Red Sox handled both games easily, however the BC game was a little bit tougher.
They also had games on Friday and Saturday, and won both of them. Never judge a team based off their early spring training results, but winning always gives fans more excitement heading into the season. And there is a lot to be excited about with this Red Sox team.
But with spring training beginning, it also means players scrapping over roster spots. Some players will be jostling for the next spot on the depth chart, and some players will be fighting to make the opening day roster.
There are a few positions this year where the Red Sox will have competition among players.The ones that come to mind immediately are first base, catcher, and backup utility guys.
First base: Hanley Ramirez vs Mitch Moreland
Both Hanley Ramirez and Mitch Moreland found significant playing time last year at different positions.
Ramirez was the everyday designated hitter last year, and Moreland covered first base for the Red Sox. They switched it up every now and then, but that was the plan for most of last year.
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But now, with the addition of JD Martinez, if the deal is ever finalized, one of those two will be relegated to platoon duty. They both could be on platoon duty, but it is likely that one will play more than the other. Let’s dive into the stats and find out who should win the job.
Most people believe that Moreland will be a platoon hitter that will only face right-handed pitchers. Moreland had a .784 OPS last season against right-handers last season, compared to a miserable .684 OPS against lefties.
On the other hand, Ramirez had a down year against left-handers, which is odd for him. Over his career, he has an OPS of .897 against southpaws. But last year that was down all the way to .679. Many people chalk up his struggles to injury, but either way he was miserable last year.
We all know Ramirez’s $22 million vesting option kicks in if he reaches 497 plate appearances. I doubt the Red Sox allow Ramirez to reach that, but he will see more than just platoon duty against lefties.
Prediction: Hanley Ramirez wins the job, plays around 100 games at first base, but falls short of his 2019 vesting option.
Catcher: Sandy Leon vs Christian Vazquez vs Blake Swihart
This is more of a two-way battle than three, but the Blake Swihart factor is very important in this one.
We all know the story of Swihart. He was once a heralded prospect, the best in the Red Sox farm system. Boston even made him untouchable in a trade with the Phillies for Cole Hamels. Looking back, the Red Sox still probably did right, just because the sheer amount of money owed to Hamels.
But since he was the top prospect, the Red Sox have ruined Swihart. They tried him in left field, which got him hurt. They haven’t given him ample opportunity to win starting job either.
So what will they do with Swihart now?
Well it seems as if Alex Cora is not going to give him a chance either. Cora said earlier this week that Sandy Leon and Christian Vazquez are his catchers.
Alex Cora said Sandy Leon and Christian Vazquez are his catchers.
— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) February 23, 2018
So with Swihart likely to be out of the picture, and he is out of minor league options, what will they do with him? They might try to turn him into a utility player again, but a trade could also be likely. His value is not as high as it used to be, but it isn’t terrible. He is only 25 after all.
So between Sandy Leon and Christian Vazquez, it looks more and more like Vazquez will win the job. Vazquez has been catching Chris Sale in the early bullpen sessions, which was exclusively Leon last year.
The Red Sox could still keep Leon and Vazquez, and use Leon to spell Vazquez on days he does not have personal catcher duties. But the Swihart angle makes it tougher.
Prediction: Christian Vazquez wins the starting job, and Blake Swihart eventually passes Sandy Leon on the depth chart.
Back up utility player: Brock Holt vs Deven Marrero vs Blake Swihart
With the Red Sox signing of Eduardo Nunez, that leaves them without the immediate need for another utility player. Nunez will fill that role, and may be able to step into the outfield some in 2018.
But injuries and slumps happen, which mean the Red Sox will need a backup utility player. For the most part, there are three players vying for that opportunity: Brock Holt, Deven Marrero, and Blake Swihart.
Now, assuming the above prediction is correct, Swihart will likely find a role on the team as a catcher in some capacity. You would think that would make the decision between Holt and Marrero easier.
Not so fast.
Marrero has been touted as having one of the best gloves in the Red Sox farm system. We saw glimpses of that in his time in the bigs last year. But at the dish is a different story.
If the offense was equal, it would be a no-brainer for the Red Sox. They would take Marrero over Holt, and likely trade Holt somewhere to shed his $2.23MM contract. But the offense is not equal. As a matter of fact, it is very lopsided.
2017 was difficult for Holt, mainly because he battled vertigo for a majority last year. The offensive production took a dip, as a matter of fact, it was almost 160 points off his OPS. Holt is so much better than the player he was last year, and we can expect to see that this year.
Marrero brings plus defense, but what he lacks at the plate hurts even more. Holt is not a gold glover, but he is a good defender.
This one should be easy for the Red Sox.
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Prediction: Brock Holt backs up Eduardo Nunez as the utility man. But in his plate appearances, Holt raises his average to around .260. Deven Marrero bounces back and forth between Pawtucket and Boston.