Red Sox are now the team to beat in the American League East

All offseason pundits have forecasted a monster year for the Yankees. But with Martinez in the fold, the Red Sox are as poised as ever to take them down.

Since the day Giancarlo Stanton dawned pinstripes we have heard nonstop that the New York Yankees have surpassed the Boston Red Sox as heavy favorites to win the AL East.

There’s a decent bit of reason in that assessment. The Yankees finished two games behind the Red Sox last year with 91 wins; however, their Pythagorean record, a record simply computed using runs scored versus runs allowed, was 100-62. Then they added the NL MVP.

Yesterday, the Red Sox anted up and signed J.D. Martinez to a five-year $110 million contract and suddenly the power dynamic has shifted.

Most would agree that the Yankees still improved more than the Red Sox this offseason and, based on raw performance, the Yankees were better last year anyway. So why am I claiming that the Red Sox should be more feared coming into 2018? Regression, regression, regression.

See, the Yankees were very unlucky in translating an elite run differential into wins, but they were very lucky with a lot of individual performers. Aaron Judge probably can’t maintain a .357 BABIP and a ridiculous 35.6 HR/FB rate. Aaron Hicks played far above anything he’s flashed in his professional baseball career. Jordan Montgomery, C.C. Sabathia, and Sonny Gray wildly outpitched their peripherals, which all included FIPs over four. These are all players who are very likely to take a step back or two in 2018.

The Red Sox look likely to regress in the exact opposite direction.