Red Sox: Four must-watch players in Spring Training

The Boston Red Sox need bounce-back seasons from these four players if they are going to contend for the AL East crown in 2018.

With pitchers and catchers reporting, the Boston Red Sox have officially started their defense of the AL East title. Doing so will be much tougher this year, as the Red Sox face the threat of the New York Yankees and their stacked lineup.

They are also facing the challenge of reporting to camp with uncertainty looming about their roster. Dave Dombrowski’s reported offer of $110 million to J.D. Martinez hasn’t been enough, leaving the Red Sox without a power threat in the middle of the lineup. Additions will likely be made before the season begins, but it’s becoming increasingly uncertain if Martinez will be one of them.

Even though improving the roster is a priority for the front office, the players shouldn’t concern themselves with what they can’t control. The Red Sox are still returning the majority of a roster that won 93 games last season. While the lack of upgrades is enough to cause concern, the current roster has enough upside to win over 90 games again. However, winning the AL East for the third straight year would require some bounce-back performances.

As with any spring, the Red Sox will be testing players in various roles, with minimal concern about winning games. Spring training performances tend to be over-evaluated, as teams are more focused on development than results. That being said, there are a number of Red Sox who struggled in 2017 and need to start 2018 on the right foot.

The following players could end up playing a crucial role in the division race and are worth watching closely throughout Spring Training.

Hanley Ramirez

Hanley Ramirez has had a bit of a tumultuous career with the Red Sox. It’s most notable beginning was when he was their top prospect, and included in a trade that returned Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell. In a way, Hanley contributed to the Red Sox by helping them acquire the 2007 ALCS MVP and the 2007 World Series MVP.

After years as one of the most highly regarded shortstops in baseball, he returned to Boston on a 4 year, $88 million contract. The deal also includes a $22 million vesting option for 2019. The deal has been heavily criticized, as Ramirez’ 2016 performance has been overshadowed by two years performing below replacement level.

Last Two Years

2016: 620 PA | 30 HR |111 RBI | .286 BA | .866 OPS | 126 OPS+ | 2.7 WAR
2017: 553 PA | 23 HR | 62 RBI | .242 BA | .750 OPS | 95 OPS+ | – 0.4 WAR

2018 Outlook

A clutch performance during the 2017 ALDS was a sign that Ramirez can still be a presence in the Red Sox’ lineup. However, if Ramirez is going to return to 2016 form, he will need to be healthy. He has a history of being somewhat injury prone, and he played the majority of 2017 through a nagging shoulder injury. Hanley’s toughness made his pain less noticeable, but his discomfort became apparent as the season progressed. Once the Red Sox were eliminated, Ramirez immediately had his right shoulder operated on. He is not expected to have any limitations during Spring Training.

Hanley’s poor performance vs. LHP in 2017 further supports the notion that his shoulder injury caused the decline from 2016. His performance vs LHP the last two years dramatically changed:

2016 vs LHP: 143 PA | .346 BA | 11 HR | 1.097 OPS
2017 vs LHP: 123 PA | .179 BA | 6 HR | .679 OPS

With a lack of mobility in his right shoulder, he developed a pull-heavy swing. Ramirez has always been a pull hitter, but never to such an extent. Also, his ability to hit pitches breaking inside diminished. This swing flaw gave pitchers, especially lefties, a unique advantage. Look for Hanley’s Spring Training performance vs. LHP to be an indicator of how he will produce this year.

David Price

Much like Hanley Ramirez, David Price has faced the challenge of living up to a monster contract. Price’s 7-year, $217 million contract makes him the highest paid pitcher in history. The pressure of living up to a contract worth so much, especially in Boston, is not easy. In terms of value, Price has underperformed with the Red Sox. That being said, he still has been a valued part of the pitching staff. His 2016 campaign created a poor first impression, but  His 2017 performances showed promise, but a lingering elbow injury kept him off the mound.

Red Sox fans have a right to be concerned about Price. With five more years committed to him, they are depending on Price to return to ace form. That being said, his numbers don’t accurately reflect general fan and media perception of him. There is no denying Price can do better, but he has still been valuable to the Red Sox.

Last Two Years

2016: 17 W | 9 L | 3.99 ERA | 230.0 IP | 228 SO | 112 ERA+ | 3.60 FIP | 4.4 WAR
2017:6 W | 3 L | 3.38 ERA | 74.2 IP | 76 SO | 135 ERA+ | 3.64 FIP | 1.5 WAR

Analyzing Price’s Value

When compared to Chris Sale‘s $12 million annual value, Price seems like the most overpaid player not named Sandoval. However, an analysis of the 2016 free agent market suggests Price is not as overpaid as it seems.

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For the past few years, baseball researcher Matt Swartz has conducted extensive free agent market research. Swartz is a consultant for the Washington Nationals, and a writer for FanGraphs, and MLB Trade Rumors. His research estimates that 2016 free agents were worth about $9.6 million per WAR. This estimate suggests that Price’s performance is nearly living up to its high cost. WAR is a bit of a controversial metric, and it’s worth noting that a player’s value has numerous immeasurable elements. However, WAR is still an effective tool for estimating player value.

Price probably could care less about his WAR, and he’ll be the first to admit he expects better of himself. He came to Boston to be an ace, not just a good pitcher. That being said, if the Red Sox could go back to the 2016 off-season, they would probably sign him again.

2018 Outlook

Determining whether Price is worth the money is a bit irrelevant. He’s probably not going anywhere, and the Red Sox need him to step up this year. With questions about the lineup, the need for dominant pitching is more present than ever. Even if J.D. Martinez signs, the pitching staff will determine how well the Red Sox stack up against the Yankees.

2017 was a stressful year for Price, but when he was on the mound, it didn’t show. His ALDS game 3 appearance is another reason to be optimistic about the future. His relief appearance showed that his fastball can still reach the upper 90’s and that he can still be a big game pitcher.

If David Price is healthy, expect a passionate, and motivated 2018 season. Despite having a Cy Young Award, and a $217 million contract, he will pitch like he has something to prove. Watching Price this March will be important, as the health of his elbow will be the difference of a good, or dominant Red Sox pitching staff.

Steven Wright

Steven Wright‘s dominant first half of 2016 is becoming increasingly difficult to recall. However, he was possibly the best pitcher on the staff for a large portion of 2016. The knuckleballer was even selected as an All-Star over Rick Porcello, who went on to win the Cy Young Award that year.

After a few rough starts, Wright ended up spending most of 2017 recovering from knee surgery. Wright’s health will add uncertainty to how well equipped he is for 2018. However, his only full season in Boston suggests he will be a huge factor.

Last Two Years

2016: 13 W | 6 L | 3.33 ERA | 156.2 IP | 127 SO | 134 ERA+ | 3.77 FIP | 2.7 WAR
2017:1 W | 3 L | 8.25 ERA | 24 IP | 13 SO | 56 ERA+ | 7.82 FIP | -0.5 WAR

2018 Outlook

During the off-season, Wright faced issues much more concerning than his knee injury. On December 8th, 2017, Wright was arrested on domestic assault charges. The case was retired two weeks later.

For 2018, Wright will have to put these issues in the past, and focus on making a return to the rotation. Wright definitely enters Spring Training with questions to answer, but look for him to get back on track throughout the season. Expect him to be focused in camp, with increased concern on staying healthy and returning to comfort on the mound.