Red Sox 2018 Free Agency: Four hitters to avoid on the market
The Boston Red Sox may be desperate for power but they need to be smart about it. Avoid the following four hitters on the free agent market.
Desperate times are upon Red Sox Nation. The current free agent freeze is a baseball version of the “Phony War” in 1939 when a nine-month hiatus took place before the world exploded. On the board is the remaining brass ring that seems to be most coveted among those loyal to the Red Hose – J.D. Martinez.
Martinez has Scott Boras as his agent and Boras is experienced and ruthless in the negotiation process. Love or hate Boras, but if you were a player with a keen desire to maximize your earnings then Boras is your guy. So, Martinez remains on hold and the Red Sox offense remains on hold, also. The need is clear, and the Red Sox have reportedly offered a five-year deal for $125 million.
Meanwhile, other options may exist as this circus stalls. Jose Abreu is perpetually on the market and the Red Sox would love to have a .300 hitter who produces home runs like bunnies who, well, produce more and more bunnies. Abreu, of course, would probably cost prospects and that cupboard is rather barren after Dave Dombrowski has taken his scythe to the farm system. And where do you play Jose with Mitch Moreland and Hanley Ramirez still collecting checks?
The remaining market has free agent material available and from what I have seen in the power division there are a few I would avoid like drinking Flint, Michigan water. Here we go on the what not to wish for list – power division.
What’s not to like about a right-handed power hitter who is just 31-years-old and could probably hit 30 out in his sleep? A player who just a season back led the National League in home runs only to be rejected by his team. For those of you who guessed Chris Carter, you win the award. An all expense paid trip back to the dugout after striking out – again.
Carter is a perpetual free agent for a reason – he is the baseball Zen master of the strikeout. Carter strikes out once every three attempts with a career rate of 33.3%. Carter has been with – at last count – five organizations in his career. No doubt somewhere a GM is hoping that some type of inspiration takes place that allows Carter to hit something besides his weekly home run.
I’m sure Mr. Carter is a swell fellow who helps the elderly across the streets, feeds stray kittens and is a positive to society, but as a hitter? Too many K’s and too few walks and a .217 career average. Then there is speed. I would bet on David Ortiz in a footrace. And the fielding? The fielding metrics look like a convention of minus signs.
Carter is a must to avoid. The titanic home runs are impressive, but the overall package cries out avoidance.
There is another step up the baseball food chain after Carter and that is another right-handed basher – Mark Reynolds. Reynolds is now 34-years-old and last season had a rather attractive slash of .267/.352/.487 with 30 home runs and 97 RBI. Very impressive, but then comes the qualifier. Last season Reynolds place of employment was Colorado.
Now even baseball novices know all about playing in Denver. The rarefied air in Coors Country tends to inflate averages like the coming of the apocalypse would for gas prices. The tally was 21 of those 30 found the seats in Coors Field. And the batting average? At Coors, it was .294 and the road .242. But Reynolds was consistent on one career attribute he has mastered – strikeouts. That was 86 at home and 89 on the road.
Reynolds once had the distinction of leading the National League in strikeouts for three consecutive seasons. Then arriving in Baltimore, Reynolds started a new streak by leading the American League in whiffs. For his career, Reynolds has a 30.9 K% and a .247 average.
Defensively Reynolds offers far greater options than a Carter. Reynold has played significant time a third, first, and has dabbled a bit at second and the outfield. As a third baseman, he is no Pablo Sandoval – who is? His metrics at third show a -11.2 UZR/150. For first it is -3.5 UZR/150.
Reynolds will find a home and I certainly hope he does if it is not in Boston.
Boston was mentioned as a possible landing spot for Todd Frazier when the White Sox were doing a continuation of their industrial sized house cleansing. Frazier went to the Yankees and eventually, Boston took a chance on the Rafael Devers. Sometimes things work out for the better.
Frazier is a right-handed slugger of note who once hammered 35 out for the Reds – Cincinnati ones and not Moscow. That was not an illusion since Frazier followed up with 40 for the White Sox. Frazier is also rather conscious about striking out. Last season his rate was 21.1% and that is acceptable in this age of free swingers.
For his career Frazier has a slash of .245/.321/.459 and his fielding is certainly a step up from mediocrity with a career 6.0 UZR/150 at third and 30 Defensive Runs Saved. Frazier can play third – maybe no vacuüm, but dependable enough.
I am somewhat “soft” on Frazier compared to Carter and Reynolds. And if it was for Devers I would be tempted to dangle a contract, but not now. Frazier may sign with the Yankees, but that could be dependent upon New York signing Mike Moustakas. Moose is a lefty and could balance out that lineup a tad more than Frazier.
A visit into the past is Mike Napoli who is again on the available list. Napoli was no great shakes in Boston, but that is really broken into two categories: The on the field Napoli and the off the field Napoli. First the latter. Part of the beards collection Napoli was a noted clubhouse presence. If you needed internal and unbeknownst discipline, then Napoli was you guy. But the hitting?
Napoli slashed .259/.360/.482 for the 2013 season and contributed 23 home runs and 92 RBI. In September Napoli was instrumental in the pennant push with a .333 average and six home runs. Napoli also had a 32.4 K%. In 2015 it was back to Texas and then a reunion with Terry Francona in Cleveland and finally to Texas for 2017.
Next: Increase production by changing batting order
The last two seasons have produced a lot of home runs, strikeouts, and a low batting average. In 2017 the average went south to just .193 and a 33.6 K%. A .225 BABIP does win friend among pitchers who face the deteriorating Napoli. Napoli is on a slide down at 36-years-old may be unemployed.