Red Sox number one draft choices – failures and successes

 Is the past an indication of the future of the Boston Red Sox minor league system? Now the system appears rather barren, but that can change rapidly.

A failure is an option when projecting young players since the clear majority have a nasty habit of not living up to expectations. One site I follow is Sox Prospects that provides in-depth analysis and has their own rankings which tend to follow MLB Prospect Watch and Baseball America.

Recently BSI’s Sean Penney wrote an article on Jason Groome and Michael Chavis being the only Red Sox prospects to get honored as a top 100 on Baseball America.  Groome and Chavis also have something in common – both were number one draft choices for Boston. Does that guarantee success? Doesn’t look that way.

Baseball scouting is incredibly difficult despite all the significant changes made through the years in the evaluation process. Scouts no longer rely on a simple rubric designed for a sight evaluation.  Numbers are crunched, film studied, psychological profiles examined and for the high school player the projection of physical growth.  Manny Ramirez was a skinny 165-pound kid when he was drafted.

The Red Sox system has had incredible success and equally incredible failure with the drafting process.  I will look at how the number one selections for 2007-2012 transpired. Who made it and who failed and who is still in limbo?   Prior to 2007, the Red Sox had some excellent number one selections such as Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, Jason Place and Caleb Clay. Obviously, the last two show the hit and miss aspect.

2007
This starting point is a train wreck, but not one of epic proportions. As will be noted with prospects they sometimes bring value via trade.

Nick Hagadone was drafted out of the University of Washington. The left-hander physically resembled Jon Lester and the comparison ended when Hagadone took the hill. The Red Sox packaged Hagadone with Justin Masterson and Bryan Price and shipped them to Cleveland for Victor Martinez.

In five seasons with the Indians, Hagadone appeared in 143 games – all in relief – and posted a 4.72 ERA. Hagadone became a free agent and signed with the Brewers for the 2016 season. Hagadone was MOA for 2016 and signed with the Seattle organization for 2017 where he pitched for Tacoma (AAA) before being released.

Ryan Dent made it as far as Pawtucket (AAA) in his eight seasons with the Red Sox organization. The right-hand hitting Dent has played all over the diamond except catcher. Dent won a game for Portland (AA) in 2013 tossing two shutout frames. Maybe he should have stuck with that?

Dent moved on to the Cubs organization where he was released in the spring of 2016 and finished that season and the next in independent ball. In his minor league career, Dent has a .235 average. So, the result is simple – Dent has failed.

There are often nuggets in each draft where a team may get lucky or a player matures. For 2007 that player was Anthony Rizzo. The Red Sox used Rizzo as a trade chip for Adrian Gonzalez and later Rizzo moved to the Cubs. Rizzo is a three-time All-Star.

2008

Casey Kelly became a key piece with Rizzo in the trade for Gonzalez. With the Padres, Kelly had Tommy John surgery that started the road downhill. Kelly is now with Atlanta. Maybe his talent will surface, but the 26-year-old righty has a 2-8 MLB record.

Right-hander Price was drafted out of Rice and had that power thrower background that seems to go with Texas pitchers. Price went to Cleveland as another piece in the trade for Martinez but did little with the Indians Organization.

In his three major league games Price compiled a staggering 20.25 ERA and giving up three home runs in 2.2 innings pitched. Price last appeared in a game in 2015 for Columbus (AAA) and retired rather than go to AA ball.

This draft had a notable selection in the ninth round – Christian Vazquez. Vazquez is the gem of the 2008 draft – a noted defensive whiz whose hitting surprised. A second catcher – Ryan Lavarnway – was drafted in the sixth round and has been with numerous organizations.  One sad note is Ryan Westmoreland. Westmoreland –  a Rhode Island native – looked impressive at Lowell before a career-ending neurological condition intervened.

2009

The Red Sox first round selected and only first-round selection in 2009 was Reymond Fuentes. As a 19-year-old playing for Greenville Fuentes showed his promise and especially his speed as in 42 steals in just 47 attempts. Fuentes – a left-hand hitter – hit .270 and became part of the package for Gonzalez.

In the Padres organization, the fleet-footed outfielder made his MLB debut in 2013 but hit a very unimpressive .152 in just 23 games.  Back to the minors for a larger dose of seasoning. The Padres traded Fuentes to the Royals after the 2014 season and Eventually, Fuentes had a 13-game spin with KC in 2016 before being released.

Fuentes signed with the Diamondbacks and split his 2017 season between Reno (AAA) and the MLB club. At Reno Fuentes hit .343 and had 13 steals in 14 attempts, but at Phoenix, his average dropped to .235. At this stage Fuentes being labeled a “4A” player may be appropriate.

Alex Wilson was also part of the 2009 draft class as a second-round selection.  The right-handed Wilson became part of the deal with the Tigers for Yoenis Cespedes. With Detroit, Wilson has been a solid bullpen contributor for three years with a 3.15 ERA in 187 games. Wilson is also noted as being born in Saudi Arabia.

2010

Boston had three selections in 2010 and what has transpired gives new meaning to the word disappointment. The first overall selection was right-hand hitting Kolbrin Vitek from Ball State University. Vitek retired after a series of injuries.

Bryce Brentz is now 29-years-old and just may have a last chance at the major league ring after leading the International League in home runs. The right-hand hitting Brentz will be in camp vying for a supporting outfield position.

I really thought Anthony Ranaudo would be a middle of the rotation starter for the Red Sox. The right-hander never got untracked and was traded to Texas for Robbie Ross. Since then Ranaudo has gone to the White Sox organization and last season gave Korea a try.

The 2010 draft was not a total disaster since the second-round selection was right-hander Brandon Workman. Workman arrived in Boston in 2013 and after two less than spectacular seasons underwent TJ surgery. Last season Workman impressed with 33 games and a 3.18 ERA.  Workman will be in the hunt for a 2018 bullpen spot with the Red Sox.

2011

This draft had a real roller coaster appearance with one noted failure – Henry Owens.  Owens finally was released after his notorious control issues ended his stay with the organization, but then you have a fellow first-round choice, Jackie Bradley. Bradley may have a checkered career with noted slumps interspersed with streaks of incredible hitting.  A first-round success? Becoming an All-Star says it is.

Matt Barnes was picked right after Sonny Gray – who the Red Sox wanted, but Barnes has had a positive contribution. In 2017 the hard-throwing right-hander from the University of Connecticut showed the promise of being a number one pick. Barnes best MLB days may be ahead of him. After a 7-3 season and 70 games, Barnes has already delivered.

Blake Swihart is on MLB life support.  The switch-hitting catcher was once among the top prospects in baseball, but injuries have affected that once promising future.  Still, Swihart is mentioned in trade rumors since you don’t give up on hitting potential that Swihart has displayed.

What makes this entire draft a five-star success is one player chosen in the fifth round – Mookie Betts. If no player in the draft ever made it to the majors just what Mookie has done would make baseball ops do a happy dance.

2012

There are no stars on the horizon from the 2012 draft. Deven Marrero was the first pick and is probably a career role player relying on his defensive acumen to be kept employed. In parts of three seasons (2014-17) Marrero has 109 games in the books and an accompanying .208 average.  Marrero’s value is his exceptional glove work, and there is still the possibility his bat could ultimately catch up to his glove.

More from Red Sox Prospects

• Predicting top Red Sox outfield prospect Ceddanne Rafaela’s timeline to the majors
• Predicting Red Sox top prospect Marcelo Mayer’s timeline to the majors
• Red Sox risk repeating rookie mistake with Eric Hosmer release
• Red Sox invited group of players you’ve probably never heard of to Spring Training
• Jeter Downs’ official departure will continue to haunt Red Sox

Left-hander Brian Johnson has not joined Owens on the departed list, but by spring training he may be elsewhere.  Injuries have affected Johnson’s career, but so has control.  The lefty may be focused on relinquishing starting and concentrating on the bullpen.

Right-hander Pat Light has appeared in 17 MLB games with an 11.34 ERA. The Red Sox traded Light to Minnesota for Fernando Abad. Light has moved on to both The Pittsburgh and Seattle organizations.  In 2017 Light was in AAA going 4-2 with a 4.58 ERA.

One potential from the 2012 draft is Austin Maddox who certainly became surprise material in 2017. Maddox – a 27-year-old right-hander – came on strong in 13 games down the stretch for the Red Sox allowing just one earned run in 17.1 innings.  Can Maddox make the 2012 draft get a high grade?